Gee I’ll be happy if i spend the hours on this and they don’t race!
For starters I don’t bet on heavy tracks but I’ve heard people say we may never race on a heavy track because the drainage is so good. This will be the best test it ever gets! They are talking up to 80ml on the day and 50+km/h winds. Hows the track play? Pattern? No idea and that’s just being honest. Very hard to steer people on weeks like this.
*A total of 131 acceptances to do the form on so for those that get on the site religiously you may get the hint i’d had a gutful of typing by about race 7-= and I haven’t added anywhere near the data that I usually do. Sorry about that.
Good luck, tight reins!
Race 1:
ALIGATOR BLOOD and RAAY OF DREAMS come off good wins and Lloyd rode them both last start. Both wins were good, ALIGATOR BLOOD beat RAAY OF DREAMS in his victory and has trialled since. Didn’t think much of RAAY OF DREAMS to be honest but blinkers went on and she was really strong to win well.
At their opening prices i think AB is too short so happy to take $2.90 RAAY OF DREAMS.
On Top: 2-RAAY OF DREAMS $2.90 (1.80 after scratching)
Hardest To beat: 1-ALIGATOR BLOOD
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Race 2:
Good race but nearly impossible to work out.
The two with potentially the most upside are THUNDEROUS STRIKE and BELLE ROC, both 3tr olds and carry 56.5kg and 56kg respectively.
I was a bit worried with THUNDEROUS STRIKE first up wet track over 1300m but the Dunn camp have been striking at 19% with fresh runners since November. Would still rather it be 1200m for him, he will be a handy horse.
BELLE ROC usually gets back but the way this maps Galloway should get close to midfield or just off. She will definitely win better races over her career. 56kg against the older horses isn’t great but out in trip on the big track are suitable.
*Can easily make a case for 6-7 other runners. Not sure if I play here or not, $5 seems skinny.
On Top: 12-BELLE ROC $6
Hardest To Beat: 11-THUNDEROUS STRIKE $11
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Race 3:
Bit embarrassing what we are tossing up in open handicaps recently.
DREAMS APLENTY was wide and extremely good but just bumped into one that improved lengths and his effort was still very good to run 2nd. He sits up on a slow tempo and gets the favours. The one concern is the 58.5kg, that’s a bit to lump and might be telling the last 50m.
I don’t trust VELADERO as far as I could kick him, he was really strong late fresh but it’s been a long time since he has put two runs back to back and if you were going on his form last prep you wouldn’t look twice. This race is that weak he’s a chance.
OINK gets his chance again and no doubt he’ll be backed AGAIN. Hasn’t won in 13 starts, in 12 of those he’s been under $8.50, he was again the best backed last start when he had every possible. No way in the world I could back him but as mentioned, this is not a strong race.
*Having a small bet the toppy.
On Top: 1-DREAMS APLENTY $5
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Race 4:
May get this completely wrong, taking on the MISS SARA formline that her, PERFECT WITNESS and RED PHANTOM run the trifecta in.
Would be very keen TEODORA but she’s been caught up in the Weir scandal and is 30 days between runs. Not ideal but she is a genuine stayer and might well just be too good for them.
FIGHTING TEO was ridden a bit pretty last week but was poor all the same, he had to be winning that. He’s not a ‘kids’ horse but understand why they claimed and I’d have done the same. He can improve sharply but needs a good ride, and that means ugly, has to be a staying test and he needs to be in the race.
CORMAC gos from 1500-2200m, that’s not a great scenario but might well be good enough, haven’t minded the ‘warm up’ runs and last prep had form all around Follow Suit who was a good winner up here last week. Not counting out although he’ll be better for it.
On Top: 13-TEODORA $3.10
Hardest To beat: 2-FIGHTING TEO $9, 5-CORMAC $9
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Race 5:
I have CAPITAL CONNECTION on top but at $3 there is no meat on the bone. He has a habit of finding one better after starting his career like he’d go through the grades very quickly. Like the fact Lloyd keeps the ride and he’s the one to beat from the good gate.
MASTERATI beat him home last start but has the awkward gate this time, they will be positive and with some luck can be in the money.
DOMINANT CROWN is the roughie at $9.50 but why oh why after A.Allen gave it the best ride it’s had in a long time would you give home the coke and sars and put Ceejay Graham on? The positive is the weight that comes off but I feel it’s a poor call even though the horse can still win. Decent speed here and from a good gate he can sit a few pairs back and has a very good turn of foot.
On Top: 7-CAPITAL CONNECTION $3.10
Value: 11-DOMINANT CROWN $10
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Race 6:
Our girl BOOMTOWN LASS did the job for us last start but she opened $4.80 which looks grossly under the odds.
DAWSON DIVA come off a slow tempo and still won from the back at the SC a month ago. She’s had one wet track run in a weak maiden and won by 7.3L. She is progressive and runs well here, up 3.5kg on that win.
Been waiting for ALPINE DANCER (opened $19) to get to a mile and he was always going to be a bet when he got to it but he’s one I can’t believe they are going to carry the 59kg with, he’s one I’d have got the best apprentice I could and take a couple kg off. This will be a testing mile which will suit him, just hope the weight doesn’t beat him.
ROCKNAVAR comes out of a low Grafton maiden and If this was 1800m I’d be more confident but the big track and a hard mile should suit, Fradd gets a nice run behind the speed and if she’s in front at the 150m she will be hard to get past with the 54kg.
READY SET BOOM runs them along and leads for a long way, the last 100m the query.
On Top: 1-ALPINE DANCER $14 ++ 15-ROCKNAVAR $14
Hardest To Beat: 4-DAWSON DIVA,
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Race 7:
4-5 live chances and I probably won’t bet.
Can’t do any more than LE JUGE has done recently. Kept running well in slow run races and when he got a tempo to suit he was excellent last start, won three of his last four and in sensational form.
RECKLESS CHOICE was dominant in a weak race last time. This harder but the big track suits.
HALLELUJAH BOY is a superior horse on wet ground, with no real tempo he can find a spot in the first three and run well.
Not a fan of DEEP IMAGE but this set up beautifully, Jeff will find the front and get a cheapo time in front.
*Probably won’t bet.
On Top: 6-LE JUGE $5
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Race 8:
10,11,12,13,14 all interest.
LANGHRO made the blackbook after first run up here, they went 6L quicker than the benchmark (he did leading) and still very good behind Curdled to run 2nd. Should get it easier here and looks hard to beat.
MANAYA got the blinkers at the end of last prep and improved. She has trialled well leading into this and if they want to box seat they can here, if they do she can win for sure.
TAB opened RIVER RACER $19 but that went in 10 minutes and halved her price. She will get back but that’s how she races best, will be strong late.
BACCARAT BAY finished her last prep in a G1 beaten just 0.8L. She is a classy filly who wants further but has trialled extremely well and class will carry her a long way fresh.
*Maybe small bets MANAYA and LANGHRO but respecting those mentioned.
On Top: 10-MANAYA $7 ++++ 12-LANGHRO $5
Next best: 11-BACCARAT BABY, 13-RIVER RACER.
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Race 9:
Very even race.
Wanted to find something to beat FRANCISCA but ended up landing on her. Liked the fresh run, should be able to land in front of midfield here, handles all conditions and has the lightweight. She looks hard to beat but $4 is no steal, not sure I take the price or not.
REAL EGO needs a good ride or good luck but going better than the $17 suggests.
On Top: 15-FRANCISCA $4
Next Best: 11-REAL EGO $17
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GIBBOS BEST:
Want to see how this track handles wet before making best bets, not sure I even get involved.
*Backing the two roughies race 6- ALPINE DANCER and ROCKNAVAR, both around the $14 mar.
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‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:
Race 8-11 BACARRAT BABY
