Saturday – ‘The Punt’ Doomben

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Another good weekend last weekend and I do love this time of year. Not one to take on horses but on a bit of a roll after Awesome Pluck was rolled but more importantly by Cadogan. I will admit the fav went better than I had anticipated but the bank acc still said Cadogan won.

Another great card but not a hell of a lot of betting races for me. Here we go…..

 

NOTE- I’ve placed this up very early for punters to read but still want to re-do maps and things can change for scratchings so be sure to check back in after 9am Saturday.

 

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*Feel free to send to mates, it is FREE after all*

 

 

 

 Race 1:

SPEEDMAP:

BB1

Really competitive race to kick the day off with about six winning chances, of them the ones I map to get the best runs are SEENTOOMANY, CATALINA MISS, SPIRIT AND FIRE and UNLIKLEY STORY, let’s run through each of them.

(Prices opening as I type this and seems value around)

 

SPIRIT AND FIRE $12 was excellent fresh and not sure what previous stables did  but Costa added a leg to it and he savaged the line, something I love seeing. You can have all the data in the world but seeing is believing and I love seeing horses go through the line like he did. Looks a handy type and only has to run up to that last effort to be very hard to bets getting to the 1200m. Costa’s stats from May are 19% strike rate fresh and that goes to 29% second up.

Costa’s other hope SEENTOOMANY $16 is one I’ve been waiting for and waiting for her to get to 1200, she gets that here as well as a nice run in transit. She’s not in well at the weights but she has upside and that is the key.

Not sure why they scratched CATALINA MISS $18 from two races last week, one in town she was a chance and one at the GC she would have pissed in. Anyway she turns up here a winning chance, I have her pushing on and might sit 3rd in the running. Not convinced she has been beating much but do like the fact she has improved each run and more improvement here would make her very hard to catch.

UNLIKELY STORY is the head scratcher for me, promised to be a very good horse at the start of last prep, I believe has had issues over his career but both runs this time have been good and he was also strong through the line with blinkers on last start, winning chance.

Liked GOOD TIME CHARLIE at huge odds when 2nd fresh, he can run well just worried where he might land in the run.

*Like SPIRIT AND FIRE if double figures available, seem overs. (As does $18 CATALINA MISS )

On Top: 5-SPIRIT AND FIRE $12

Hardest To Beat: 7-CATALINA MISS $18,  16-SEENTOOMANY $12,  3-UNLIKELY STORY

 

Bookmaker 400 matched sq

Race 2:

Don’t like the race, if i have a bet it would be ESTIKHRAAJ as a banker from EMPHASIS and JAMINZAH but not sure I have to bet.

UPDATE- Happy to have small bet ESTIKHRAAJ at $4+

On Top- ESTIKHRAAJ $4

 

 

Race 3:

Honestly, I’d love to know why we do this. We have a couple of major ‘country features’ throughout the year and it’s just a joke. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the country getting a chance to race for big money, give them more big prize money races, but make it Roma cup day or somewhere similar like Warwick for their cup day for the same money. Once again punters are forced to try and do form with no replays and dirt form mixed in. Punters and RQ might not agree but I think it’s a massive joke and feel we look like the backward state everyone says we are.

It’s a massive NO to punting on this from me.

P.s Good luck to connections who do get the cash and I hope they have a good day out.

 

 

Race 4:

Fan of NATCH, he went from strength to strength last prep not to mention the money he won for punters, the question is how wound up has Gollan got him for this? He maps to lead and he should be able to get it ok, if HINGUS ROSE wants to push up Stewart can just sit outside leader and keep a few others wide. If he gets it easy as I suspect he will put a couple of lengths on them at the 300m and should be able to hold them off.

BLUEBROOK might be the main danger, another who progressed well last prep and he was in a good trial leading into this, he had the heavies on and from a good gate he can land in front of midfield and I expect him to be very strong late and the main danger. Similar story for LOOKS LIKE ELVIS, yet another progressive horse, he won fresh at Grafton last prep and was scratched from the G3 to run in this.

UPDATE: CURDLED didn’t have a jock engaged until Friday and they have claimed 3kg for a good jock, now a chance.

*Happy to think those three run the quinella. Think NATCH should win but respecting the other two.

On Top: 4-NATCH $4

Hardest To Beat:  11-BLUEBROOK $8,  8-LOOKS LIKE ELVIS $7,  12-CURDLED

 

 

Race 5:

Again there are unseen 2yr olds here, no footage of jumpouts so no matter what you like there is a query on the unknown, I don’t like punting when there are unknowns!

ELEVEN ELEVEN has trialled twice and both have been very, very good. Just needs a little luck from the gate to be a major player.

BETAIMA and COUNTRY COCKTAIL should be the two leaders and although I expect a good speed they don’t need to spend extra petrol crossing from wide gates and I expect them to be in it for a very long time, especially taken with the trial of COUNTRY COCKTAIL recently.

*Don’t think I’ll bet here but COUNTRY COCKTAIL, ELEVEN ELEVEN and BETAIMA the best of what we’ve seen.

 

 

Race 6:

SPEEDMAP

BB6

He’s a ripper is ZOUSTYLE and I expect him to win but leave me out of $1.30, amazing odds really. This is harder than his last start, he’s out to 1200m and might be even more speed than last start so he’s got more to overcome and has opened shorter than he did last time. In saying that he went quick last start and run to time hold them nicely, will be better for the run also.

BOOMSARA had plenty against fresh and you had to risk him but he still ran well. Gets to 1200m and a better gate, will get the spot 1/1 and I’ve got him running into 2nd.

THE FIRE TRAP and VALARIO are both well above avg, have them running well without winning, I would like to own either of them though!

Trifecta: 3/1/2,7

 

boomracing

Race 7:

First horse to be backed Wednesday was MALAHIDE, she is a quality filly for the Costa camp, I felt she trialled better than most people do and she is one of those horses who seems to just jump every hurdle they put in front of her. Gets a good gate and every chance here.

Feel OUTBACK BARBIE is just better than these but at $2.70 in a capacity field and the likelihood of landing midfield I don’t think I have to gamble. She is a genuine Group horse and I feel there is a chance she could just continue beating these through the summer, in well at set weights as a G2 placegetter, she’s a beauty.

Feel VOILA $8 will be highly competitive, was a good winner on a heavy track before going to Melbourne over the carnival and was beaten 0.5L at G3 level where she was strong through the line. Looks like she has been a work in progress but really starting to put it all together and has a sense of timing about her.

Look you can make cases for a dozen horses here, luck will play a major role.

On Top: 1-OUTBACK BARBIE $2.70  ++  7-VOILA $8

 

 

Race 8: The George Moore:

SPEEDMAP

BB8

Right, I’ve had 100 people ask me how CTT is going… Let’s look at the negatives- He’s first run back from a wind operation, he has 58.5kg against a good bunch of horses, he comes off an avg trial and a long break between runs and taking on horses who have got their fresh runs out of the way. The positives? He’s better than them. I have no doubt if this horse turns up and brings his best he will win, i’d just have liked to have seen him trial better than he did. He gets gate 1 and the map all comes down to MONSIEUR GUSTAVE and if he can hold the fence, he and I’M A RIPPA are both probably better horses when they lead. With even luck in running CARE TO THINK can still win and $4.40 seems a fair price.

VICTOREM is a good horse with a lot of upside and was the eye catcher last start he gets the 4.5kg off CTT which is a big pull in the weights but I can’t but feel this bloke is screaming out for 1350m and to be honest I feel he will be better placed at a mile in the future. Look for him late.

Gollan’s pair will both strip fitter from the fresh runs and that’s to their advantage here. How MOST IMPORTANT went around $21 is beyond me and he is $8 here and nearly double the price of the three favs? He has competed well with CTT on numerous occasions and may end up 1/1 here. IM A RIPPA will again roll up on speed and be in it for a long way, I’m sure their eyes are on the 1350m races so this will be another fitness step but can run well.

*Hard for me to not look silly but even I’m not sure what to expect with CTT, remembering his goal is the second week in January.

On Top: 2-CARE TO THINK $4.40

Hardest To Beat: 6-VICTOREM, 1-MOST IMPORTANT, 4-I’M A RIPPA

CARE TO THINK 1

 

Race 9:

SPEEDMAP

 

bb9

Looks a bit hard this! Many chances and Not sure what a few do map wise. Unless they push on and either slot in or keep pushing on OINK I can’t see them getting in if going back. So for mine they either scratch or be very positive.

There is a chance this track could be hard and fast and to the front if it’s 35 degrees all day. You had to like what BRAX did last time, went fast to find the front and kept improving! Will lead and be in it for a long way again.

If I was forced to have a bet it would be IMPASSE, feel he is flying at present, beat Mishani Vaidra Cup day and that horse was impressive last week. He had no luck last start when used up early only to be hauled back to find a spot and then asked for the effort in the straight and run home the 3rd quickest last 200m of the race, I thought that was an outstanding effort. Does meet OINK 3.5kg worse for being beaten 1.3L by him so not ideal, but we’ve mentioned that horses conundrum whereas IMPASSE can roll forward and should be able to land behind the leaders.

SNITCH has been very good for the Currie camp and liked the way he hit the line last start. Probably lands three back the fence and a soft trip in transit which will help over the 1350m.

*Small bet IMPASSE at $7 possibly.

On Top: 6-IMPASSE $7

Hardest To Beat: 12-OINK, 2-BRAX, 8-SNITCH

 

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http://www.ladbrokes.com.au/signup/?a=618822&d=BRISSYRACES200

 

GIBBOS BEST:

Best: Race 4-4 NATCH $3.80

Race 1 SPIRIT AND FIRE $5 main bet and smaller CATALINA MISS $14

Race 8 something CARE TO THINK $4.20

 

 

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Brisbane Race 9 No.12- OINK