Well we have made it to another $3.5 million Golden Slipper and it is a great field assembled to have a crack at the richest two-year old race in the world. It is a race where barriers can play a pretty big roll but are not always the deciding factor. Pace plays a crucial role and again I see that as one of the main factors in the Slipper.
Lets have a look at what I see as the main chances in the race:
First of all let me start by saying I have an enormous wrap on the TODMAN form and I think the three colts who ran the placings that day are very good.
The logical place to start is with SEPOY. He is a flying machine who can accelerate off a fast pace as he did in the blue diamond running 1:08:55. Yes that track was producing fast times on the day, but that is simply outstanding. That time was 0.82 of a second quicker than Stirling Grove ran in race 1. Drawing gate 10 is ok in my eyes as I see him working a bit to get across (they will make it as hard as possible for him) but there is pace outside him that he should be able to get some cover when they eventually get to the front. His last start was not bad, but it wasn’t the Sepoy we have seen before, and that is the question, is he still at his top? Has Snowden been able to keep him up? If so he is definitely the one to beat.
The horse that ticks nearly every box is SMART MISSILE. He has already had a one start prep which he won well and came back with a very strong win in Todman. He beat Sepoy and Foxwedge that day and in the end was dominant in my eyes. He seemed to just get stronger on the line and even though he was still a bit green, he did it well. He will take natural improvement from that win, he has barrier 5, and from all reports worked the house down Tuesday morning. He is on the way up and gets a great run just in front of midfield in a race I see the pace being very genuine. He is the one to beat, and if Boss gives him the run he should, watch out.
The final horse out of the Todman obviously was FOXWEDGE. He has improved each run, was very good behind the two favourites last start and with O’Shea applying the Blinkers to this smart colt I give him a winning chance. You are always looking for an improving horse on an upwards spiral in a race like the Golden Slipper, and this bloke is exactly that. The question is where he gets too? He is drawn directly outside Sepoy and he may try to get on Sepoys back, but that may lead to drama as many jockeys will be trying to achieve that same goal? With the right run he can win.
SALADE is the other colt that will improve lengths from having his first experience at the races last week and can’t be written off. Bart will put the polish on him and he will probably go back from gate 12. I am not as keen on him as the other three colts, but again how much improvement Bart gets out of him is the key. And who wants to question J.B.Cummings?
The form Filly is ELITE FALLS for John O’Shea. Since he added blinkers to her she has been very good. We put her in the blackbook on the site after her last run and I do think she can play a major role here. If the track did happen to get rain she would nearly go on top for me as she really appreciates the sting out of the ground. If it is a good track she can still figure in the placings but she will have to go back or sit wide and try to get some cover from (16).
SATIN SHOES has taken on Elite Falls on each occasion and they always run 1,2. This filly is the one everyone has wanted to tip from day one. She has improved in condition and gets gate 2 which allows her to sit in the first 5 or 6 and spend no energy doing so. She wasn’t in my top few but the barrier does bring her into the race some what. She is much better if she gets a good track.
The underrated filly in the race is SHARED REFLECTIONS for Waterhouse. She ran well behind Elite Falls and Satin Shoes and then came out last start and ran very well to come down the outside and roll a smart horse in Streama. She gets a good gate (6), has Oliver on board and I think she is over the odds and probably the best roughie in the race. There was good money for her last start and she won like a good thing.
Of course there are more chances in the race but they are the one’s I see as the main chances. KARUTA QUEEN on her best form would be a chance, and she does hold the key to the race. I expect her to have to go forward and there will be horses on her outside trying to follow her across and sit outside her. If this happens she will have to run a mighty race to hold off this quality field.
GOLDEN SLIPPER SELECTIONS:
2 SMART MISSILE
1 SEPOY
4 FOXWEDGE
9 ELITE FALLS
Best roughie– 12 SHARED REFLECTIONS.
The BMW worth $2.25 million is always a good race and does have the ability to throw up a rough result over the 2400m at WFA.
I don’t think Zavite will get the cosy run he had in the Ranvet and I do think this will be a solid staying test. My speed map has ZAVITE and MOURAYAN both going to the front with GINGA DUDE and CEDERBERG sitting not far behind and I think it will be run pretty genuine. I also expect MOURAYAN to take off around the 1000m mark as he did in the Metropolitan and try to hold them off. That is his best chance but I don’t think that it will be successful. It will however suit his stablemate LINTON to perfection, he is coming off nearly a career best run in the Australian cup where he ran second to Shocking. He has now hit form after three runs back and he will be coming late for sure. He is an improving type who was well in the market for the Melbourne cup and he may well be one of the favourites again this year.
DESCARADO is third up into the BMW and his first two runs have been great. He will strip a lot fitter for his nose defeat to Zavite in the Ranvet, and if he gets his preferred surface of dead-slow I have no doubt he is the horse they all have to beat. The 2400m is perfect for him now and we all know how good he was in the Caulfield Cup.
MALUCKYDAY is the most exciting prospect in the country and I have an enormous wrap in him. He does have to prove himself at WFA and he was a touch disappointing last start and will have to improve a bit into this race. He will start favourite and may seem a touch under the odds at the moment, but he is exceptionally good and if he gets to smoke his pipe and gets a tag into the race on the back of LINTON or DESCARADO he has more than enough ability to put them away.
Some people may think I am mad, but I feel a good roughie that might run a race is ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE. The key with him though is the surface, as he has had 12 starts on dead or slow tracks without winning yet! He is worth watching if we get a good track, at least going towards a race like the Sydney cup 3200m.
Overall I see the market as a good guide (although that’s not always the case in this race). I think the race will be run to suit the favourite’s and I expect them to be fighting it out when the whips are cracking!
BMW SELECTIONS:
6 DESCARADO
7 LINTON
8 MALUCKYDAY
**Good luck if you have a bet on the feature races, as usual our “The Punt” guide focusing on the Brisbane race card for Saturday will be up tomorrow so log in and check it out. We also have a couple of blackbookers in for members I will mention in “The Punt”. Don’t forget to join up if you aren’t a member yet (It’s FREE). And if you are a member, thankyou and remember to let as many people as you can about us.
Cheers,
Gibbo.
