The Geelong Cup has arrived and as it has been the last decade it will be a decent guide to the Melbourne cup. Media Puzzle and Americain have come out and won the cup after wins at Geelong. Bauer also won at Geelong and was only beaten a lip at Flemington.
Interestingly Bauer is back and needing to win to qualify for the Melbourne Cup. His run in the Herbert Power 2400m last start was very good and he must be respected. Tanby was in the same race and is the best of the locals. He was also great last start only being beaten narrowly by Shewan. Dunaden is a serious UK galloper and I have him as one of my top selections in the Melbourne Cup at this stage, so I do expect him to be extremely hard to beat! He would prefer a bit more distance and a bigger track, but don’t write him off as he can sprint well if the pace goes on a long way out. He reminds me a lot of Americain and he can win.
Queensland have a horse in the Geelong cup in the form of Beaudesert galloper Spechenka, and I touched base with Ben Ahrens who is based just out of Geelong at the moment to find out how the horse has come along since his Metropolitan run. He was a touch unhappy with that run, but on reflection felt the sectionals were better than he first thought and after a really good track work session on Saturday morning thinks Spechenka should race well. If that is the case, the intention would be to get into the Cup on the first Tuesday in November, or push onto other options available. However if he was to disappoint then Ben would pull up stumps and return home. The campaign hasn’t always gone to plan this time in and there has been hiccups along the way as I believe the horse has some tricks and can play up a bit, but Ben Ahrens has done well to get him this far.
**My opinion is that the market has it about right and my numbers are:
1-Dunaden
4-Tanby
2-Bauer
6-I’m Jake
Roughie- 8-Spechenka.
*Remember to check in again befor the end of the week for our blackbookers and more!
