Stradbroke Day ‘The Punt’

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Plenty of locals going to the track so feel free to share with your mates via text/email or print out and take to the track!

 

Here are a couple of PODCASTS I am doing.

 

HOLD ALL TICKETS:

https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode/?id=244657

 

RACING NATION:

https://soundcloud.com/racingnation

 

 

BLACKBOOKERS:

Race 5 No.16-CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES – She is on top.

Race 6 No.4- SESAR – Will throw in trifectas.

GC Race 3 No.2- HEARTS LIFTED

 

 

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Race 1:

SPEEDMAP: (Where horses should settle in the race)

SSM1

Very even bunch but feel SAVANNA AMOUR has a bit of a class edge on these at her best and looks a well timed prep. She had the 1000m run to blow out the cobwebs and has trialled since to have her spot on for the day. Ran the fastest last 400m split of the Cheif De Beers so has come back well. She is a multiple G3 winner and well placed at Listed level. Good speed allows her to find a spot behind that pace and can run over them late.

HAVASAY will enjoy the hot speed and he is a high class horse who can let down as good as any of these. Probably ridden a touch close last time but will be midfield or worse off this good tempo.

*Heap of other chances but they are the two I’m focusing on to kick the day off.

On Top:  2-SAVANNA AMOUR $9

Hardest To Beat:  7-HAVASAY

 

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Race 2:

SPEEDMAP:

SSM2

Not real keen on this race. There is a good tempo to give them all a chance but not a lot have been going particularly well.

Thought if there was any value it might have been the $13 about EXOCET as she comes off a good win at the GC, she gets a gate to stalk that good speed and blinkers go back on.

No real guide on ULMANN on the back up but feel he is going well and maybe looking for this trip now. D.Lane and a good gate mean he might land midfield. If we get some rain JUMBO PRINCE opened $41 and hes going better than that, forgive last start when he had the thumps.

Feel JUMBO PRINCE $41 and SERGEANT BLAST $26 might be plays here, small bets in open race. SERGEANT BLAST was good two back and forgive the last run where he got a bad ride and no luck.

*Plenty of chances in this but can’t be here all day, Not that keen here but small bets around the two above.

On Top:  15-EXOCET $13

Roughies:  6-JUMBO PRINCE $41  +  12-SERGEANT BLAST $26

Hardest To Beat: 3-ULMANN

Roughie: 6-JUMBO PRINCE $41

 

 

Race 3:

SPEEDMAP:

SSM3

This is a group 2 but gee it’s a cracking race. Good speed with KARISTO, GRESHAM and VONTAINE all going forward and all have their share of ability. Probably slight leaning to GRESHAM and KARISTO of the leaders as they come off strong wins and look to be improving types.

ASSIMILATE’s last run had ‘follow me’ written all over it, he will spot them a start but he just has to have a little luck in running and should be the strongest late. JMAC stays on and happy to have something on him here.

FEMME FIREBALL is going well and got a horrible steer last time. Doomben not her track but a mile might be the key.

SAMBRO gets the gun run, only query is missing the last run? He gets every chance as does PEACEFUL STATE who comes here off two very impressive South Australian wins.

*Having something ASSIMILATE but a very good race!

On Top:  2-ASSIMILATE $6

Hardest To Beat: 5-GRESHAM, 10-KALISTO, 1-PEACEFUL STATE, 3-SAMBRO

 

 

Race 4:

Even tempo with NAVAL WARFARE and RISING RED leading them up.

Hard to knock RISING RED off the last start win but KIAWA and SEDANZER meet him 2.5kg better off at the weights here. Feel SEDANZER has the turn of foot to put her right in this off a nice quiet run in transit.

AMBITIOUS is the class runner but has the big weight. Not really known on a wet track if that occurs.

*Don’t like the race, possibly an interest bet SEDANZER but want to see what the market does race morning.

On Top:  5-SEDANZER $6 into $3 after scratching

 

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Race 5: THE STRADBROKE 1350m G1

Doin a speedmap is the best way to find a winner, this speedmap is near impossible. What we do know is PERAST and THE MONSTAR are the leaders, CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES likely to get the run of the race in behind them not using a penny.

Other main chances CRACK ME UP, SANTA ANA LANE and IMPENDING all have the quality to run over these late but they will be back and need some luck getting clear running late.

CARE TO THINK again draws a bad gate (14-18-3-19-12-12-11 and now 16 are what he has drawn his last  8 runs). No idea where he gets to but if he gets cover and the right run there is no doubt he can win, it’s just not easy for a horse like him from the gate.

Clear on top is CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES for me. She is airborne at present. She nearly broke the clock first up before taking on the older horses at WFA where she was wide and then flushed out early when CARE TO THINK circled, she had every right to stop late but went to the line better than that horse and comes here with the perfect gate to get a cheap run. The leaders are going well enough to take her well into the straight and all being equal I have her winning.

*The filly on top and you can go as wide as you like away from her.

On Top:  16-CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES $4.20

Hardest To Beat:  11-CARE TO THINK,  1-IMPENDING, 2-SANTA ANA LANE, 15-PERAST

Roughie for trifectas- 3-CRACK ME UP

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Race 6: THE J.J.ATKINS 1600m G1

SPEEDMAP:

SSM6

Problem here a few of the leaders are slow ones and don’t want them rolling back on the favs when they get a stitch.

THE AUTUMN SUN has been the spruik horse and even though his win wasn’t outstanding in Sydney, he was a month between runs so should strip fitter and is the horse they all have to beat.

The knockout could be FUNDAMENTALIST who has continued to improve as she has gone up in trip and 1600m looks ideal. She has run the fastest 400-200m and 200m-home splits in all her last three starts. Opened $13 and straight into around $8. Can win.

SESAR and LEAN MEAN MACHINE were the best out of the lead up and always have time for SIZZLING ACE. They all go in trifectas.

*THE AUTUMN SUN and FUNDAMENTALIST interest me the most.

On Top:  5-THE AUTUMN SUN $2.40  ++  11-THE FUNDAMENTALIST $8

Next Best: 1-LEAN MEAN MACHINE,  4-SESAR,  14-SIZZLING ACE

 

 

Race 7: THE QUEENSLAND DERBY 220m G1

Nothing will surprise here but with the edge out of the track i’m suggesting it will suit LUCKY FOR ALL better than most. He is a promising stayer, I feel a better horse than the stablemate HEAVENLY THOUGHT and that horse won the main lead up to this. He has the awkward gate but D.Lane goes on top and he is sure to be one of the strongest late.

HAN XIN looked as though he had plenty of improvement left in him from the last run and he was tough there. Might make this a real staying contest and runs well at $21. MAHAMEDEIS another at $21 who has form around some of the main contenders and the more of a staying test this is the better it is for him.

LIVE AND FREE would have been my on top selection on a hard track as he has the best turn of foot, highly promising but just think LUCKY FOR ALL might be better suited at the 2200m on a testing surface.

YOUNGSTAR was an impressive Oaks winner so must respect. DARK DREAM had excuses last start so must forgive.

*Leaning LUCKY FOR ALL but go as wide as you like in trifecta’s!

On Top:  11-LUCKY FOR ALL $5.50

Next Best:  8-HAN XIN $21,  7-LIVE AND FREE,  4-MAHAMEDEIS

 

 

Race 8:

Not many mares in Australia going better than MOSS TRIP, concern is she has the get back pattern which isn’t ideal for Doomben but there might be enough speed for her to get home. Can’t go any better than what she did last time and with luck in running she’d be the one to beat.

Big fan of PROMPT RESPONSE, just continues to run well in Group races and gate no concern as she will float forward and be hard to run down. At the $11 she will give a good sight.

PEDRENA and INVINCIBELLA ran the quinella in the Glenlogan and they were both very good there. Bad gates don’t help but feel they both have class and obviously good mares in great form!

*Heaps of other chance in a race I’m not sure I bet in or not. If they are swooping on the day MOSS TRIP goes on top.

Value: 1-PROMPT RESPONSE $11

Others: 11-INVINCIBELLA,  9-MOSS TRIP, 5-PEDRENA

 

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Race 1 No.2- SAVANNA AMOUR $7

Race 5 No.16- CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES $4.40

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST BET:

Race 3 No.7- SEAWAY

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

 

SHANE CIURLEOS BEST:

Race 8 No.1- PROMPT RESPONSE e/w $10