Sydney Group 1 Previews

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This is the way I see some of the group 1’s in Sydney on the weekend. You can do what you want with the information. We have been travelling pretty well of late, so lets hope we can get the chocolates again!

I have gone over three of the big race but left out the Queen Elizabeth. There are just too many variable and formlines going into it. I will be watching it with an eye to the future. WFA does not suit SHERPA TENZING, but Conlon has a wrap on him and I have always thought he would furnish into a good horse at 4-5 yrs of age being a Zabeel. If he competes at WFA against these he can be a serious spring proposistion.

The Champagne 1600m – 2yr olds.

HELMET comes in off a win in the Sires (1400m) where he sat on the speed and proved to good for a lot of these same horses. He is a very good quality horse as the $3 quote shows. I don’t see a problem with the step to 1600m as he come off a 49 day break going into the sires, so you would expect him to improve from that run. He can sit handy again, and is the one they will all be chasing at the 200m matk.

SALADE is a horse I thought would go ok in the slipper but was more the Bart factor giving him a chance. But I am pretty keen on Salade here. I think from gate one he can sit handier in the run for Bowman, and with a touch of luck the $7 on offer looks ok. His run was very good in the slipper and his only hurdle will be getting straight up to the 1600m from the slipper.

UATE ran very well behind Helmet in the sires and on that run alone must be some chance in a race like this with a cushy run, possibly 3rd the fence? Would not surprise to see him pop up.

RUNNING TALL and COCKY RAIDER have both got a lot going for them, but I’m not convinced that they are as good as the top few this time in work. Both are place chances in my eyes but hard to see them knocking off the top few.

The four bottom fillies interest me a bit. PANE IN THE GLASS was the one I put in at odds in the sires and she did the job for us. She ran terrific and is a massive chance getting out to the mile. Jimmy Byrne stays on and she should get a lot better run from gate 4, she is a winning chance and must be kept safe.

FAST AND SEXY ran into trouble in the straight last time but it is hard to know how much it cost her. I wouldn’t completely put a line through her as she could run a decent race with more luck. HOUSTAN BENEFACTOR backs up from a heavy 1200m race, but has always had a big wrap on her. I haven’t got her in my top view, but if the money comes she might just step up in the big one. DISPUTES will be my roughie here. As I have gone over the replays she is the one that sticks in my mind as the horse looking for further. She may not have the sprint of some of the fav’s but she will keep coming and is the ‘fresh’ horse on the scene coming into this third up. She may be a maiden but can surprise.







A very interesting race with HAY LIST stepping up to the 1400m. He goes on top for me, and just seems too good. I couldn’t believe the price he got to a place last start behind ‘The Champ’ and has apparently improved since. I see very little speed and he should be able to dictate, or at the very worst sit outside a moderate tempo. If that is the case than it should be lights out as he beat most of these by 5 lengths last time around.

I have HEART OF DREAMS first up and MELITO as the other on pace runners and two of the hardest to beat. MELITO is my outright second pick, she has been flying on unsuitable tracks and has beaten the boys in the past. She loves this track and trip and I would expect her to be the main horse taking them up to Hay list.

HEART OF DREAMS is a must for exotics as he will run his usual top race. I have no doubt they have their sights on a couple of suitable races in QLD, but he can be right on their tails here.

RANGIRANGDOO has come back super and his last win was awesome. The problem is he pulled up scratchy and wasn’t right to race last week? But Waller is a genius- and so is this horse. If he is right then expect him to be flying late and you can bet he won’t lay down. He has had 7 starts at Randwick for 4 wins 2 seconds and 1 third, enough said!

WFA-Randwick-1400m ticks all of DANLIEGH’s boxes and don’t write him off after the Doncaster, he can bounce back without surprising with conditions to suit.

The QLD SHOOT OUT is expected to improve but I find it hard to see him rolling some of these top sprinters. The thing in his favour is he is fresh and this is an after thought for some of these.

CENTENNIAL PARK, HINCHENBROOK and ALVERTA are probably the best of the rest and do have some place claims in trifecta’s etc.






I believe this is the best of the group 1’s to have a trifecta/first4 in. I like:

TRIFECTA =  3—1,11—1,2,4,5,11.

The SYDNEY CUP 3200m

Although a lot of trainers will instruct the jockeys of their horses to get comfortable in the run and let them get back and find their feet, I suspect that there are 4 or 5 that are most comfortable leading! For that reason I think it will be a genuine pace in the Cup. MOURAYAN, ONCE WERE WILD, MUIR, OLDER THAN TIME and SOILD BILLING are all capable of leading! You can bet that coming to the 800m that Williams pair MOURAYAN + MUIR will both take off and try to stay the others into the ground. ONCE WERE WILD will have no alternative to take up the challenge. They are all chances in an open race, but I feel that it will open the race up to a few that will be behind the pace, who are in form and get a nice run in the race that don’t have to use up too much petrol.

ABOVE AVERAGE gets the gun run, he has been going very good and did finish second to Precedence in the M Valley cup in the spring. He should get a nice tow into the race and Brown can sit just off the pace from gate 1. He drops to 54kg, Freedman has schooled him and I am willing to be on him e/w at a good price.

C’EST LA GUERRE has taken some time to come right this time in, but is finding the right form at the right time! He also gets into a good spot for Rodd from gate 9. There should be enough of the ‘jar’ out of the track for him to put his best foot forward. The distance is not a worry as he has placed in a Melb cup, and he may well be the horse with the touch of class that takes him to victory. Big Chance.

MACEDONIAN may well be the forgotten horse. He won the 3200m Sandown cup in the spring and stamped himself as a serious stayer. He gets a sensational run for Dunn, probably 6th one off the fence? He comes off a decent run behind Muir in the Adelaide cup, but I have a feeling he will get a few things in his favour in the run. He will stay all day and with 53.5kg expect him to be coming late when the whips are cracking. Keep him safe.

One of my main focuses when doing form and replays etc is to teach your head to take in what you are seeing. Some people are finding ways to knock HAWK ISLAND, but the facts are he has never gone better and is probably over the odds at $9. His runs in the Ranvet + BMW, both at WFA were outstanding, and then he won the JRA plate with 61kg. He is a definite winning chance- so believe what your eyes are telling you..

ONCE WERE WILD hit top form last time out, she will have to work harder in this but if the rain stays away she can run well.

LARISTAN has been good for Hayes, and the BMW form should hold up here. Dropping to 53.5kg should give him every possible hope.

OLDER THAN TIME is stepping up in grade, but Waterhouse-Boss combination is a hard one to knock. Some hope.

A rough chance at odds is COUNT ENCOSTA who was the one flying late in the chairmans, that goes down as one of the best lead up runs into this, so he goes in as my roughie.

There are more chances in the race, but that is how I see it.






Roughie–  15 COUNT ENCOSTA.

“The Punt” section will be up tomorrow! Good luck, Good punting!

#bet responsibly.

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