Tatts Tiara Day – ‘The Punt’

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“The Punt’ section looks at the last day of the Brisbane carnival- Eagle Farm for Tatts Tiara day. We do of course have the Sunny coat meeting next week up the highway.

Heavy rain was predicted on Friday so although I sound like a broken record it can be worthwhile to hold fire and see what rain falls during the meeting. All the rain is unfortunate but we have been pretty lucky to dodge a bit of it lately.

This looks a good days racing and if the rain had held of possibly a great betting day.

*All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

*Feel free to print off or do what you like with the information as it is simply my opinion on the eight races in Brisbane.blackbook

 

**I have done this preview on a SLOW surface..

Rail + 1.5m

Track- Eagle Farm

 

BLACKBOOKERS:

Alcancia – Eagle Farm R1 No.4 (1200m):  Wet will make her the one to beat.
Someday – Eagle Farm R5 No.14 (1600m): One of the main players.
Yosei – Eagle Farm R7 No.2 (1400m): Better than the 15/1 quote.
Spirit Song – Eagle Farm R7 No.5 (1400m): Probably rather a dry track..
River Lad – Eagle Farm R8 No.3 (1200m): Nice e/w chance at $10.
Winta Chiller – Flemington R3 No.10 (1200m): Open race but nice price.
Star Rolling – Flemington R4 No.2 (2000m): Bad barrier but leading chance.
Under The Hat – Flemington R5 No.15 (1410m):
Rebel Dancer – Randwick R5 No.7 (1400m): Even race

 

 

Race 1:

VINTAGE MOSS and BRIBIE probably have an edge on these on a dry track, however that is the question, what is the track rating at 12:10pm Saturday? If it is dry I would be happy to back BRIBIE if the price was there. He has improved each prep and on the right surface he can be hard to beat.

VINTAGE MOSS was very wide last start and would pay to forgive. Gets gate 1 for the cushy run here and after the 2kg claim he will improve sharply.

ALCANCIA has raced like she was a greyhound this time in work and is coming up to race no.9 for this preparation. That is the question with her, is she coming to the end of her prep and on the back-up here? Or is she holding condition? She handles all conditions, can sit 4th-5th here from the gate and only has to run similar to her effort last week behind Cape Kidnappers to be in the mix.

RIVER SPIRIT if looking to add value to trifecta’s.

 

Good/Dead- 2- BRIBIE, 1- VINTAGE MOSS

WET-  4- ALCANCIA

Topline-Thoroughbreds-1

 

Race 2:

Brad Herne told us in an article through the week (article on the site) that ROCK HOME LATE is going well for his 1st up assignment. He is a very handy horse on his day who will roll forward and take catching. He does get through wet ground but I have no doubt he is more effective on dead or better ground but $23 is a juicy price.

VENTURE ON is going very well behind some good horses. He won 3 runs back and was then beaten 1.7L by Peron, and 2.7L by Tokamak. He loves this trip and is a player here.

KEEP IT MOIST is building to win and does drop 2kg from his latest run when 3rd to Peron.

AMETSIS is very handy on her day and looked good two starts ago when winning easy.

VIKING HEART goes better around Doomben but surely deserves one forgive run for last start. He is honest and that was out of character. If the track is not a ‘bog’ he can win.

On Top:  12- VIKING HEART

*but track conditions will be the biggest key here.

 

 

 

Race 3:

Don’t want to go in too deep here but DISCREET is simply the best horse and has a gate she can take advantage of and after the 2kg claim she is going to take a stack of beating. 1.8L defeat from a G2 last start and drops back to a 3 yr old handicap! She does look the winner.

GENERAL EXHIBIT also comes off far better form races than this lot. He will get the gun run in transit and the one that DISCREET will have to run down.

CALIENTE, THE STOREMAN, THE CONSPIRATOR and LITTLE LONG HORN the best of the rest.

On Top: 2- DISCREET

 

 

 

Race 4:

Famous last words but this does look a race in 3.

OCTANE FLYER comes off the G1 J.J.Atkins run where he was extremely good! If this was a good track I do think he would win but a heap of rain would dampen my confidence.

ARCHITECT was simply very good at Ipswich and he only has to reproduce that effort on the bigger track to be right in the finish.

ENQUARE has been consistent with only one bad run to her name. I’m not one overly convinced the Missy Longstocking form is the best formline in this race but this filly seems to be an improver.

*Follow any real money trail.

On Top: 1- OCTANE FLYER

Hardest To Beat:  2- ARCHITECT, 9- ENQUARE

 

 

Matt Dunn Racing

Race 5:

The kickoff to the Quadrella and is it that clear cut?

FIRE UP FIFI is flying at present, she has the perfect gate, is on the perfect surface at exactly the right trip for her and can sit up near the pace in an even run race. So does she just win? I think she will but this race does have a lot of depth. She is giving weight to some pretty handy horses and that is always a question. She was beaten less than a length in a G2 last start and should have probably finished closer so she is the one to beat here.

TOKAMAK, DIADEME and SOMEDAY all come through the same 1600m race a fortnight ago and although there is very little between them you would think SOMEDAY may just be the best placed of them here from the gates.

The S.A horse CONSERVATORIUM is airborne and they have pulled the right rein heading to 1600m. I’m sure they park behind LISTEN SON, get a nice tow into the straight and see if he can finish off.

DOZINMATERANYWAY may be worth throwing into wide exotics and not the worst in the race.

*Looks the mare, but is an intriguing race.

On Top:  3- FIRE UP FIFI

Others: 14- SOMEDAY, 6- DIADEME, 1- CONSERAVTORIUM

 

 

 

Race 6:

What an ordinary Cup… $128,000 to the winner, where are the horses? Surely some have aimed at the wrong targets?

Anyway there will be plenty take ‘field’ in their quaddies but I have it down to two chances and one other that could improve.

ROTHERA should get conditions to suit with rain about and his last two at Group level were very good and the 5th in the Brissy Cup is more than enough to win this.

IBICENCO has had a lot of specking his last couple and I could not understand why, but getting to 2200m for Moody and Nolen he is about to hit his straps and this race is perfect! He may well improve again off this run but he is the horse who will improve lengths off his last run at 1600m where he found them a bit nippy but this is tailor made.

The only one I feel capable of causing an upset is SHAMARDASHING and I am wondering in a race without a lot of pace engaged if Munce may push forward, sit 3rd-4th in the running and have a length or two on his main rivals on cornering?

They are my main chances but if rain continues FIBRILLATION could fall into tri’s on a really wet EF surface.

*The more rain we get the more ROTHERA’s chances will rise.

On Top:  1-IBICENCO

Hardest To Beat: 2- ROTHERA,

 

pineapple

 

Race 7:

What a race! $100,000 Tatts First 4 JACKPOT as well!

Easy to make a case for ¾ of the field.

As all Group 1’s should be this will be run at a genuine tempo with STEPS IN TIME (gate 10), RED TRACER (16) and ARC TIC FLIGHT (15) will definitely push forward early and put the speed into the race. I’m hoping SKYERUSH can do similar and get the cover 4th-5th just behind the leaders.

STREAMA was outstanding in the Stradbroke with the blinkers on and from gate one is the stalker here and the one to beat back to fillies and mares WFA.

RED TRACER was huge with 59.5kg last start and she gets the sting out again and Nash will probably have to push forward from the wide gate. Dropping 2.5kg off the Dane Ripper win and getting a soft surface makes her a terrific chance again.

PERON is on the back up from a devastating win at Ipswich where she was dominant! Takes on the big girls here but I can’t find a reason to knock. There is no doubt she is a genuine Group horse but is she better on top of the ground? I don’t think it is an issue as she should be a slow track winner already when very unlucky.

SKYERUSH is an extremely underrated mare and again starts around the $10 on Tatts again. She is rising 8 years old but has never gone better. They probably go forward and sit in the first 4 settling here. If she gets a bit of cover she can prove very hard to beat at nice odds.

RISK AVERSION has been promising to win a good race her whole career and a win would not surprise. Unfortunately I have been keen on her in a few big races at $31-$51 each time when she has been unlucky and probably should have finished closer. She was $31 last start, meets horses like RED TRACER 3kg worse off for losing and you have to take a third of the price she was a fortnight ago? The wet really brings her into it now and I will be cheering for Micheal Lakey to get his G1.

FLORIA going well, SPIRIT SONG was unlucky in the straddy and probably wants it to stay dry, and SHE’S CLEAN is the horse on the way up (in the same boat as PERON)

*Really good race and I’m just leaning to SKYERUSH and hope she can get some cover.

 

On Top:  4- SKYERUSH  @ $9.50   ..   12- RISK AVERSION $12   also worth a bet now it’s heavy.

Hardest To Beat:   3- RED TRACER,  16- PERON,  1- STREAMA

 

 

 

Race 8:

Tough way to finish the Quaddie..

On a dry surface I thought RIVA DE LAGO was ready to win after a good run at Scone and the winner from that race Fontelina ran well in the straddy. He goes better on top of the ground but should be respected.

All of a sudden HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME is the spruik horse again? He was very good winning the Lightning and if he produces that run again then he will be hard to beat. His runs before that were ordinary but maybe the trip up and the drop in grade have got him going again.

Happy to go with RIVER LAD at the $12. He handles all conditions and is going as well as he ever has. He meets HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME 1.5kg better off at the weights and you had to love the way he hit the line in the Lightning and this is his pet track/trip with 3 wins and 2 placings from seven attempts.

Really liked DELAGO BOLT in the Lightning and his effort was huge when he seemed to miss the boat and spot them an impossible start. The way he finished off means he can measure up, just how wet is it and can you make ground?

Similar story for the stable mates GUNDY SON and GRIFFON who are hard to split. GRIFFON should have won the QTC cup but will give away some start again here, while GUNDY SON is as honest as ever.

SKYTRAIN is a genuine wet tracker and if the track had rain during the meeting he comes right into this. The fact EF is a very testing track when wet makes him more than worthy of quaddie thoughts.

ROYAL BENDER comes up from Melb and has obvious claims if going wider.

*Track conditions key for some key runners but any surface suits RIVER LAD and leaning his way at a nice price.

UPDATE- HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME can get an easy time up front and is the one to beat now.

On Top:  3- RIVER LAD e/w @ $12

Hardest To Beat:  1- HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME,  2- SKYTRAIN,

 

 

 

GIBBO’s BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 3 No.2 DISCREET

Best Each Way bets-

Brisbane Race 7 No. 4- SKYERUSH @ $9.50

Brisbane Race 8 No.3- RIVER LAD  @ $12

Sydney Race 5 No.1 SINGLE STYLE  @ $6

Melbourne Race 8 No.1 GOLDSLICK  @ $11

 

This week’s ‘Longshot’ selection-

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA-

1,3,6,14  —– 1,2  —– 1,3,4,8,12,16 —- 1,2,3

 

THE PROPHET’S’ BEST BETS

Melbourne Race 3 No.3 HAUSSMANN

Brisbane Race 5 No.9 SOFT SAND

 

TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERSTattsBet

EAGLE FARM

6/2 Rothera $5.0/$4.6

7/8 She’s Clean $13/$10

7/16 Peron $7.5/$6.5

8/10 Benny’s Buttons $21/$15

RANDWICK

3/9 Clarissa $15/$12

6/9Eigelstein $7.5/$5.5

8/11 Iggi Pop $10/$8

 

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 22 June 2013

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 EAGLE FARM (BR) 7 $100,000 TATTERSALL’S TIARA
         
         

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 GOLD COAST (QT) 4 $2,000 QBRED BREEDERS CLASSIC FINAL(2YO FILLIES)
F4 GOLD COAST (QT) 5 $2,000 PREMIERS CUP FINAL
F4 GOLD COAST (QT) 7 $2,000 QBRED BREEDERS CLASSIC FINAL(2YO C&G)
F4 GOLD COAST (QT) 8 $2,000 GOLD COAST OAKS
EX GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $8,304 C1 ONLY
QD GOLD COAST (QT) - $9,431 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

 

 

*Bet Responsibly.

 

Thanks for checking in guys and girls! There may be a FACEBOOK competition this week or next so if you are on social media get on the brissyraces.com.au facebook page and ‘LIKE’ us to find out more.

 

I hope everyone has a winning weekend and whatever you get up to make it fun and have a cracker!