Tatts Tiara ‘The Punt’ preview

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Another ‘The Punt’ section rolls along and we search for more winners.

The last Group 1 of the season- The TATTS TIARA for the fillies and mares. Quality usually stands up here at set weights like most fillies and mares races.

It’s not just a day for the girls though. The G3 Healy stakes usually finds a horse that can go on to better things next season also.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

June 23
DUSTY GOLD EAGLE FARM R3 No.8 (1400m)
SUNSET AFFAIR EAGLE FARM R4 No.12 (1400m)
SHEZAHOTSHOT EAGLE FARM R6 No.16 (2200m)
RISK AVERSION EAGLE FARM R7 No.11 (1400m)
DIVORCES EAGLE FARM R7 No.6 (1400m)

 

**All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

 

Race 1: A decent 1200m race to kick the day off. The four main chances have all drawn wide, but that’s not too much of a worry. THEFIFTHHOLE will push forward and it will be up to Rosie Myers to decide if she pushes up underneath to hold the front with SIGNIFIED. They are both very good frontrunners and they would be crazy to push each other too hard. Both are great chances and pretty handy horses.

Then there are the two who will sit of them and hope for the leaders to go at each other. RAISE UP and CAPTAIN CLAYTON are both more than capable of running over the top. RAISE UP was good winning at Doomben in what I think will be a very good form race (grey Assignment has won already out of that race). But CAPTAIN CLAYTON at his best would be winning this. He has had a bit of a freshen up going into this and I give him a very good chance of finding his best form.

*They are the four who should fight this out. GENERAL SHEREEF and DUX BELLORUM are the others I’ll consider for first 4’s etc.

On Top: 2-CAPTAIN CLAYTON

Hardest To Beat: 1-THEFIFTHHOLE, 3-SIGNIFIED, 4-RAISE UP

(Sorry guys, I had GUNDY SON down down on top…. Been one of them long weeks. Stablemates)

 

Race 2: Where to start here? Too many to go over! Happy to go with HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME who I made an early market selection on RadioTab this week. He promised a lot in his first prep and then had 9 months off. First up the other week he gave the older horses a beating which is a great pointer going into a 3 year old race. Avdulla knows the horse and all he has to overcome is the hard run on a heavy track 1st up which can flatten horses.

STRADON popped up as a blackbooker for us at $21 the place last start and this is easier than the guineas. From the good gate he can run well again. KELBENJAR can add pace to the race and does fight hard so must be respected. WAR CHARM brings good SYD form and with Bowman on and gate 5 to his advantage is a big player here.

VIKING HEART is a horse I have tipped plenty of times and although he is getting costly he is one who will rattle late with some pace on up front.

AQUATORIAL drops back from a very hot sprint race against the older horses last week and must be given respect on that run.

CASTLE HILL the best of the rest having its 2nd start for the Heathcote yard.

On Top: 4-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME

Others: 7-STRADON, 3-WAR CHARM, 10-VIKING HEART

 

 

Race 3: DUSTY GOLD e/w for me here look the go. His form says he is better at Doomben, but EF suits his racing style. Has been flying this prep and ran well in two good form races leading into this. Wiggins gave up a few good rides at Rockhampton to ride BIANCA JEWEL so she must be respected. She is very good on her day, but she does have her fair share of weight. I see them as the main chances.

OAK STREET has been avg his last couple but gets to a dry surface and can roll forward here. SKATING ON ICE is the class horse in the race and is on the backup which may be a good sign. PRIMED, MACHINATION and FIRE UP FIFI can all run well if playing exotics.

On Top: 8-DUSTY GOLD e/w

Hardest To Beat: 5-BIANCA JEWEL

 

 

Race 4: HOSS AMOR has opened at $1.90. If you think she’s that good you might like the price, but I think it is a bit short. She may not lose much with Munce getting on top but I think J.Cassidy is a bit of a stand over man and suited the horse. It also has an awkward gate, so I will be looking wider. SUNSET AFFAIR has to find 2.3L to turn the tables from last start but gets gate 3 and I feel the dry track will be a massive help. At the $11 on offer I will be having something on her e/w.

HOLEY GADOLEY is extremely consistent and you’d love to own him! He got within ¾ of a length of the very smart DESTRUCTION who would start fav here if it ran. You are getting $9 this horse so probably good value if you like him.

SUBSTATION is a horse I have a lot of time for also. He has never really had things go his way but should get a good run in transit here.

If DISCREET runs here she is in the top couple of chances, but she is also nominated in Rocky.

Looking for some value: 12-SUNSET AFFAIR ew

Hardest To Beat: 8-HOSS AMOR, 9-DISCREET, 1-HOLEY GADOLEY

 

 

Race 5: FIREBOLT has had the foot on the till it’s last couple and just needs a pinch of luck or a good ride to win this. Has great form at E-F, 1600m suits and I think he is one of the best for the day. (However he is getting short enough too)

JETSET LAD is backing up from the Eyeliner where he was terrific! He is a quality horse and the 1600m is far more suitable than the 1350m last week. He is the biggest danger.

CARRY ME BLUEY is more than up to this on his day, but he has not had a lot go his way this prep. He’d be right in my quaddie calculations and a win wouldn’t surprise. He does have an awkward gate, as does MYSTICAL GREY who has been set for this. Forget his last run on the heavy track as they simply had to run to peak for this race. Don’t under-rate him.

*For those who checked in within half an hour of posting you may have seen I left HOUR OF PERIL out. That was just a mistake I found on going over the article. He has been very unlucky all prep and his win at the G-C was outstanding. J.Thompson feels being on the outside of horses is a major plus and Dunn is a key booking.

*Think they will fight it out but more than happy to be on Firebolt one more time.

On Top- 1-FIREBOLT

Hardest To Beat: 2-JESTSET LAD, 5-CARRY ME BLUEY, 4-MYSTICAL GREY

 

Race 6: A nightmare to work out! Many of these are coming off heavy track runs and very hard to line up.  Waterhouse dictates the pace with ONCE WERE WILD and KINNERSLEY the likely leaders, and both have hopes in this. ONCE WERE WILD could be the big improver back on the dry track and she is a genuine group horse on her day. KINERSLEY was tough in the Ipswich cup and backs up.

I have gone over GINGA DUDE’s run in the ippy cup a few times and I don’t think it was that bad. He wobbled around the corner and lost a lot of ground, and he had a hell of a lot of ‘dead weight’ with Taylor on board who is a natural lightweight. He was strong late and he is a major player here with Bowman steering. Previous form puts him right in this.

WAZN has had four runs this prep and all have been full of merit except for the run at Doomben where he didn’t seem to handle the track. He gets a good run and is yet another chance here.

ELUSIVE KING was horrible last start on the heavy, but can be forgiven for that and drops 6kg into this and Walker stays on. At the $11 mark he may add value to quaddies.

WARRIOR WITHIN and SHEZAHOTSHOT worth thoughts for first 4 players and RUNDLE who is a ‘duffer’ on the wet gets back on top of the ground which can turn him right around at big odds.

*Happy to think WAZN has enough in his favour to be worthwhile investing in. Light weight, good gate and a good jockey over a suitable trip.

On Top: 6-WAZN

Hardest To Beat: 1-GINGA DUDE, 4-KINNERSLEY, 12-ELUSIVE KING

 

 

Race 7: The last group one of the season and it is a great field of fillies and mares to do battle. On paper there is not a heap of pace, but wave $320,000 in front of connections and some plans will change to push forward. Even so, it should just be an even tempo. That can be a bit of a concern for SOFT SAND who I have on top. She will get back, but I do think she will turn out to be a real group 1 performer for a couple of years to come, and she can balance up in the big E-F straight and get last crack at them. You could make a case to say she should have been unbeaten last prep and the stable have eyed this race off for a while.

By far the best value in the race in my mind is RISK AVERSION at $31. She will also get back but Munce doesn’t have to get back to last. She is one of very few who has a turn of foot like SOFT SAND. This weight scale doesn’t help her but her run in the Glenlogan was full of merit and I will be having something on her at big odds. She has been screaming out for E-F and 1400m and unfortunately missed a run in the straddy because that was tailor made at the handicaps.

SHOPAHOLIC and EMMALENE are other three-year olds who can run well. SHOPAHOLIC was good in the Stradbroke off a horrible gate. She gets a good gate and D.Dunn to help today. EMMALENE has not had any luck what so ever this prep. Gate 3, Colless takes the ride and a dry E-F surface gives her a knockout hope at $41.

BONNIE MAC and RED TRACER get the best runs in the race up near the pace and just behind. Both can be players here. BONNIE MAC will relish getting back on top of the ground and a repeat of her run in Adelaide gives her a hope.

MID SUMMER MUSIC smashed them in QLD’s best race, the Stradbroke. The track was dead that day, but I believe there was a fair bit of juice still in it. That said, she is still the best credentialed horse in the race and only needs luck from the horror gate to be right in the money.

GAI’S CHOICE has been exceptional and this is her biggest task to date, while VARENNA MISS gets the blinkers off and can improve sharply.

*A really open race, but I will be backing SOFT SAND, and at the $31 RISK AVERSION is another that will get some of mine.

On Top: 17-SOFT SAND

Hardest To Beat: 11-RISK AVERSION, 15-SHOPAHOLIC, 14-BONNIE MAC

 

 

Race 8: Heathcote has been very upbeat about GRIFFON and the horse has come on since the first-up win. He will again settle back and rattle late. Simply on his last run he has to go on top. The stable feel this is the best they have had him and he stood EXCELLANTES up a big start in a track gallop lately and picked him up. The stable mate EXCELLANTES gets back to the more suitable 1200m and gets his favoured good (3). When he gets these conditions he always stands up, and usually wins.

TROMSO is hard to get a line on here. He has always promised a lot and his good win first up in SYD may be the first step in him progressing. However from the gate I do think he looks a little short in the market. One company opened him at $3.80? He can win without surprising but I’ll look for a touch better value.

The two leaders are again AUDACIOUS SPIRIT and ADEBISI who are extremely quick early. They can kick off that pace, but I do think AUDACIOUS SPIRIT is going better than ADEBISI this prep and he does have a good record this track/trip.

HAVATRYST had the ‘thumps’ after his last run so put a line through that. He has won 6 of 9 here and is 2 from 2 this track/trip also. TIERQUALO was the best run behind Griffon in the Lightning. He copped two checks and did well to pick himself up and hit the line so well. He has enough pace to sit behind the leaders and can look the winner at the 100m.. He will be in my quaddie at $9-$10.

*So where does that leave us?

I’d be happy to stick with GRIFFON but I wouldn’t be getting carried away.

On Top: 8- GRIFFON

 


 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Best Bet: Rockhampton Cup Race 7 – No 16  - EMVOSS

Brisbane Race 2 No 4 – HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME

Brisbane Race 5 No 1- FIREBOLT

Best Roughie- Race 7 No 11 – RISK AVERSION

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: (Short first leg for me today)


1,2 —– 1,4,6,12 —– 1,8,11,14,15,17,18 —– 3,4,8,9,10

$28 = 10%


 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane-Race 3 No 8- DUSTY GOLD

Brisbane-Race 7 No 8 VARENNA MISS

Brisbane-Race 8 No 8 GRIFFON

 

**Mick ‘The Shark’  from Theshark.com.au will join us yet again after steering us into another winner last week. (check back here later for his in depth preview of a couple of Melbourne races.

SATURDAY 23rd OF JUNE – FLEMINGTON
Great White’s enjoyed a really good day at headquarters last Saturday with all but one of the winners rated in my top two picks in each race – betting advice ensured that most left the track with a bit of cash in their pockets. This weekend’s meeting looks a bit better but I’m worried about the condition of the track…

FLEMINGTON – Track: Slow (7) potenially heavier Rail: Out 12m (11am Friday) (I am quite worried about the state of the Flemington track – it has seen 4 meetings in the space of 17 days and has copped plenty of rain during that period. It has looked quite choppy of late, the rail has been moving around all over the place, and I suspect although rated slow that it will race more like a heavy deck.)

RACE 1 (12.05pm MLB time) 1000m 2yo Hcp
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
A little bit of form around the better chances here but we have two well-bred debutants with no trial form from good stables to confuse the issue. NO. 1 GENERAL ORDERS had no luck on debut at Ballarat in what looks to be a decent sort of form race, and he is taken to make amends today. We’ve already seen the winner Flamberge emerge from that race and win at this track at his next start, yesterday the eigth placegetter The Empress won at Geelong to add further clout to the form. On that basis and with a softer run down the straight he can win. NO. 8 ROYAL CHASSIS made a good impression at Cranbourne at its first start and she has to be taken seriously. She rac decent time for a heavy track and showed good speed to run out and lead, booting down off the bend to put a little gap on her rivals. She looks a useful sort, I suspect General Orders has her covered though. NO. 9 ISABELLA SNOWFLAKE has her first start today and this daughter of Not A Single Doubt commands respect for Mick Price. The stable has had a great season with its 2yo runners and I suggest that you follow any positive move from the betting ring or on Betfair. NO. 7 DANCE CARD wasn’t bad at its first look down the straight behind Day Procedure and she rates 2 lengths better than the others we have seen so far.
TIPS – 1, 8, 9, 7
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 70% (big watch on Price runner, otherwise 1)
BETTING ADVICE – Small win bets numbers 1 and 9 if betting

 

RACE 2 (12.40pm) 1400m 2yo Hcp
Expected Pace – Moderate (leaders should be favoured)
I suspect that there will be value to be found in this race with the top and bottom runners sure to attract plenty of attention from good stables. The two horses that I suggest that you focus on are NO. 4 RIVER CRUISE and NO. 3 MONTANA MAN – both come through a very similar race to this a three weeks ago. River Cruise went into that race off a strong on-pace run at Geelong when he looked every bit a miler in the making, but when the gates opened last start he fumbled around and missed the kick. Chris Symons had little option but to settle at the tail of the field which ended his chances with the leaders dominating the race. I am expecting a sharper getaway this week and a better tactical position in the run. Montana Man jumped better in the same race but began to pull quite fiercely when the leaders dropped the speed. He lurched out on the turn when fighting Jamie Mott but kept kicking strongly to the 200m before tiring late. If he settles and races kindly he will be much tougher to get past. NO. 1 UNDER THE LEANER was ridden really patiently, almost too patiently, at Swan Hill but a very good final 100m propelled him to victory. Mott has elected to stick with him in preference to Montana Man which is a good lead, and his form does look pretty strong – Clinton Affair and Clinking are both city class. NO. 2 STARS IN THE SKY looked likely to drop right out here last week over 1200m but he rallied again late when off heels and away from other runners so I’m glad to see the winkers on. He’s got the ability, he’s just that little bit raw at the moment. I’m just risking NEXTESS a little as she may need a touch more tempo and a mile now.
TIPS – 4, 3, 1, 2
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 75% (suspect top two raters will be overs)
BETTING ADVICE – Small win bets numbers 3 and 4

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

**This week TattsBet have $75,000 to kickoff the First 4 pools for each of the last four races at Eagle Farm!!

So if your looking to have a go at a First 4 you have come to the right place.

The tatts site can be found by clicking on their link on the right hand side of this page.

MARKET MOVERS FROM TATTSBET

EAGLE FARM

1/8 Dux Bellorum $8.5 to $6.5 — Now into $5.50

4/1 Firebolt $3.2 to $2.7

6/6 Wazn $7.0 to $5.5

6/10 Rundle $35.0 to $23.0

6/12 Elusive King $16.0 to $11.0

7/7 Gai’s Choice $12.0 to $10.0

7/17 Soft Sand $5.0 to $4.8

**EMMALENE $61 into $41

WARWICK FARM

2/9 Forever Crazy $9.5 to $8.5

6/8 Romanus $7.0 to $6.0

8/7 Rushing To Win $4.8 to 4.2

 

FLEMINGTON

2/6 Spinmeister $14.0 to $10.0

3/4 Geejayhaitch $7.0 to $6.0

7/9 Johannapine $2.4 to $2.2

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 23 June 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

5

$75,000

TATTERSALL’S CLUB MILE

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

6

$75,000

TATTERSALL’S CUP

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

7

$75,000

TATTERSALL’S TIARA

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

8

$75,000

W.J. HEALY STAKES

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

GOLD COAST (QT)

1

$20,000

M2 TO M3

F4

GOLD COAST (QT)

5

$2,000

PREMIER’S CUP FINAL

F4

GOLD COAST (QT)

7

$2,000

GOLD COAST OAKS

EX

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$9,056

C3 TO C5

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember to tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo