“The Punt” 13th July

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UPDATED and Final NOW.. 8:25am

Righto, for those who follow the site through the week you would know there was a lot of form done for Grafton and that was time consuming. That has left me with little time for Saturday but the good news is I don’t think there are exactly a lot of great betting races in Brisbane. Also I’m heading to the www.pineapplehotel.com.au on Saturday and that has taken some planning too, can’t wait!

I am going to go over the quadrella legs in Brisbane this weekend.

The forecast has changed from Wednesday to Thursday to Friday so fair dinkum, who knows? All I know is that makes it incredibly hard for folks like myself trying to give decent steers to punters.

Track- DOOMBEN

Rail – TRUE

*****PREVIEW IS DONE ON A SLOW SURFACE***

 

Blackbookers:

SATURDAY, 13 JULY 2013
Miss Steele – Caulfield R1 No.5 (1000m): Tough race, will run well.
Nadeem Lass – Caulfield R2 No.4 (1200m): Great e/w chance.
How Fairdinkum – Doomben R5 No.11 (2100m):
Mishani Warrior – Doomben R6 No.2 (1350m): Can win again.
Smakatus – Doomben R8 No.9 (1200m):
SUNDAY, 14 JULY 2013
Henwood – Sandown Lakeside R6 No.8 (1200m):

 

pineapple

 

***Sorry the preview is much shorter on detail but that is simply all I have to work with this week.

 

Race 5:

Typical Brisbane staying race, mixed formlines and hard to work out. The genuine horse is FLYING HOME and I do think he is improving. Back to a slightly better surface and out to 2100m should be suitable now. Byrne may have to go back a touch further than he wants and that would be my only concern. He may spot them a fair start…

CASH’N’STYLE nearly ready to win now and was very good last week. Smith’s pair of HOW FAIRDINKUM and CLANGOR are also chances from good gates. FRETON not the worst at the odds for wide quads.

On Top:  4- FLYING HOME

Hardest To Beat:   10- CLANGOR, 11- HOW FAIRDINKUM, 6- FRETON

 

 

Race 6:

Been waiting for BRIBIE to find the right race as he is going really well. Not sure this is it but he can be competitive. I feel he is a real 1200m Doomben horse and will have to be good to lump the 59kg over 1350. If the track gets back to Dead or better his chances increase.

MISHANI WARRIOR gets the claim which helps but will meet a few worse off at the weights from his last win. He is on top but not brimming with confidence.

INSIDE JOB, MR ORIENT, SPATHA and SONS OF GOD outside chances in a tough one to work out.

On Top:  2- MISHANI WARRIOR

 Hardest To Beat: 8- INSIDE JOB

 MaluaRacing...

 

Race 7:

A really good Tatts Mile. Gollans pair LISTEN SON and TOPPING can lead at their leisure and give themselves every chance. LISTEN SON really needs the track to dry and if it does he comes into this.

LUCKY HUSSLER and LOADED are flying and get in with 54kg each. They have good gates and I have them fighting the race out. Slight leaning to LOADED as I like the way he put Tax Evader away last week. He is on the back-up and at around $-5 I can’t see why you jump off if you were on last week. LUCKY HUSSLER is very classy and deserves a win.

FIREBOLT is a horse I have always liked but patience is running out this time in work. Joins Wood stable and has to be some hope.

BOOGIE SHOES could be an improver and at the $34 I will be having something on. He was solid 1st up, this should be a slightly better track and can sit just behind the pace here.

On Top:  10- LOADED

Hardest To Beat:  9- LUCKY HUSSLER, 13- BOOGIE SHOES

 

 

 

Race 8:

What a way to finish the quad. From a good gate DISCREET looked a good thing but (21) makes it tough. Obviously will move in a few with scratching’s but 1200m around Doomben means it’s worth throwing more into the quaddie in my opinion.

Track conditions are more important here than most of the races today. No doubt CALIENTE, GENERAL EXHIBIT, MASTERFUL PLAY and THE CONSPIRATOR are winning hopes on Dead or better surface but is that the case here?

SMAKATUS wants the sting out and should get it. I actually think he is an improving type and with the track to suit he will be hard to beat again.

Two on-pacers I feel could run well are STAR SAMMY who drops back to 1200m which is his go and he can sit 3rd the fence getting the gun run. Last start wasn’t suitable but he puts his head out and isn’t afraid to dig in. The other is TUKIYO who is a bit of the forgotten horse at $14. She is bloody handy on her day and just put a line through the Listed run last start when wide and it was too bad to be true. From gate 10 I think they can get a spot 5th-6th, get her to relax and let her ease into the race.

Interested to see how Heathcote pair LA FRISSON BELLE and REGAL SHOW line up.

*DISCREET the class and just needs luck to win, while CALIENTE just needs it dry.Matt Dunn Racing

Value: 11- TUKIYO

Hardest To Beat:  1- DISCREET, 4- CALIENTE, 2- GENERAL EXHIBIT

 

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

*Not exactly best bets but if you can get $5-6 about these they are worth thought.

Melbourne Race 2 No.4 NADEEM LASS

Belmont Race 4 No.2 THE MILLIONAIRE

 

Best ‘Longshot’- Brisbane Race 7 No.13 BOOGIE SHOES  @ $34

 

Brisbane Quadrella:

**NOTE- This is an early guide only, when track conditions are known Saturday morning the preview and numbers may change significantly**

4,6,10,11 — 2,8 —- 1,6,9,10,13 —- 1,2,4,9,11,16

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 3 No.5- THEFIFTHHOLE

Melbourne Race 3 No.4 FLASH OF DOUBT

 

*Here are the Tatts market movers, I’m off to The Piney!

 

TATTS MARKET MOVERS and JACKPOTS:tattsbet

 

DOOMBEN

7/10 Loaded $4.2/$3.6

 

WARWICK FARM

1/6 Meteoros $14/$10

4/1 Masahiko $4.8/$3.8

6/1 Wild And Proud $12/$10

 

CAULFIELD

1/6 Monkstone $4.8/$4.4

3/4 Flash Of Doubt $7/$6.5

4/16 It’s Fred $14/$10

5/14 Harry Trimbole $5.5/$4.6

7/13 Committed $4.2/$3.7

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 13 July 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

DARWIN (DR)

7

$10,000

CHIEF MINISTER’S CUP

TF

CAULFIELD (MR)

6

$172,300

SIR JOHN MONASH STAKES

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$15,334

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$2,000

SUNSHINE SPRINT

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

7

$2,000

QUEENSLAND DERBY

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

“THE WESTCHA$E” FINAL