‘THE PUNT’ 15th Dec Eagle Farm

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We stay at Eagle Farm for ‘The Punt’ section this week.

Rain has been about but I have done the form for a DEAD surface.

Rail- True.

A very open card with a few shorties, but I think we can find some value as well.

Let’s get to business.

Blackbookers:

December 15
THE ALLEGED ASCOT R6 No.7 (2200m)
ACCELAROMETER ASCOT R8 No.7 (1500m)
BOYS ON TOUR EAGLE FARM R4 No.1 (1400m)
SALUTER EAGLE FARM R6 No.2 (1200m)
LUCKY HUSSLER EAGLE FARM R6 No.8 (1200m)
AMALFI DREAMS EAGLE FARM R7 No.17 (1300m)

 

 

All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

 

 

**You can have a listen to my interview with AJ on the www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

Race 1:

Another one of these staying races where POST RESTANTE starts way under the odds. She should win again but no way I’m taking the odds.

*No punt for me here.

Race 2:

ELIMINATOR won by about 9L on debut at the GC. He is a flying machine and will run them along.

EL TORANDO will be improved off the debut run and can go close.

SIR LUMINAR has trialled well and I’d say respect any money trail for him, but I simply can’t go past LONDAHERO. I would rather it be 1200m, but he can sit behind the hot pace and should run over them late. Big future.

 

 

ON TOP-  1-LONDAHERO

Race 3:

One of the highlights of the day. MISSY LONGSTOCKINGS gets the favors at the 1000m trip and has to be the one to beat. She has been faultless and deserves to step out fav.

I do however give GREYTFILLY and particularly GLOBAL DREAM big chances of rolling her.

GLOBAL DREAM is back off a let-up and I think looks very progressive. She has trialled well and at the price I may just have something on her.

GREYTFILLY (I believe will not run)will be flying late for Heathcote after 2 great runs in October.

MORROCAN ROSE was a $2 fav against MISSY LONGSTOCKING on debut so should be given some thoughts as she must show plenty at home.

 

 

ON TOP-3-GLOBAL DREAM  + 1-MISSY LONGSTOCKING

Race 4:

LUCKY SOUND is the up and coming horse who has strung a few together. He is still on the upward spiral and is the horse they all have to beat. This isn’t any harder than his last assignment.

The horse I think can cause the most headaches is BOYS ON TOUR (he’d like more rain). Each of his runs have been satisfactory this time in but he gets a few things in his favour this time. He meets LUCKY SOUND 4kg better off than last start and this time he gets the good gate while the fav draws wide.

*They are the two winning chances as I see it.

 

 

ON TOP-  4- LUCKY SOUND,  1- BOYS ON TOUR (value)

 

 

Race 5:

JET STYLE finds yet another race he can dictate up front and be hard to beat. He will start a short priced fav and even with a little rise in the weights it is hard to see him being troubled.

If the sting is out of the ground PEPPERWOOD who has improved each run could figure here.

CARRY ME BLUEY would put these away easy on his best form but for some reason he was pretty ordinary 1st up. I’m prepared to forgive and with a gear change and jockey change he could be the big danger to JET STYLE.

 

ON TOP-  5-JET STYLE

Hardest To Beat:  2- CARRY ME BLUEY, 1-PEPPERWOOD.

 

 

Race 6:

SIZZLING pulled up with a sore back after the G1 Coolmore in Melbourne (The best 3yr old sprint in Australia) and was still only beaten 1.9L by Nechita. At set weights here with a good gate he would need a heap of bad luck (which can happen) to be beaten.

DISCREET was great first up, she draws a great gate and gets a weight turnaround on her conquerors from that race.

LUCKY HUSSLER is probably the one we are still learning about and that has the most improvement. With the right run he can take another step.

QFIGHTER has the blinkers off and will be ridden cold to have one last shot at them from the wide gate.

SALUTER was good beating the older horses in a race where the form is stacking up nicely!

REFLECTANCE trialled well and will grow wings late. Was $625K as a yearling and may well be at his top this time in work.

*Great race! If Sizzling finds some bad luck nothing would surprise with a win in this.

 

 

 

ON TOP-   1-  SIZZLING

Others: 6- REFLECTANCE, 8-LUCKY HUSSLER, 2-SALUTER

 

 

Race 7:

Capacity field over the 1300m with mares chasing some ‘blacktype’ should ensure this is run at a decent tempo.

FIRE UP FIFI and RISK AVERSION were no chance last start when the leader pulled the hand brake on at the 800 till the 400m. Their runs were ok and this is far more suitable. I think they are the clear two on top.

RISK AVERSION is a fav of mine and she has won 5 of 11 with three other placings. Don’t forget she should probably have won the G1 Tatts Tiara where she had no luck. She improves 2nd up, gets the tempo, Munce back on and I’m in her corner around the $5.50 mark on www.tatts.com .

FIRE UP FIFI gets a lovely run and just needs some luck getting off the fence on the corner to be right in the finish.

FILLYDELPHIA mixing her form lately. On her day she could win this but hard to be confident on recent form.

I have a slight query on FUNTANTES at the 1300m from a wide gate but she is in very good form.

ROSE OF SCOTLAND, JESTER’S GIRL and CUDDLESOME all worth thought for those playing exotics.

*AMALFI DREAMS gets a runn and will give the backmarkers something to catch!

 

ON TOP-  4- RISK AVERSION e/w

Hardest To Beat:  3- FIRE UP FIFI, 17-AMALFI DREAMS

 

Race 8:

If it’s a hot dry day the leaders are usually advantaged in the 1200m races late in the day. This race however has a stack of pace and I’d be keen to be on those just stalking the pace, you still don’t want to give too big of a start. 1,2,4,6,7 are all natural leaders and will push forward looking to find the fence.

ROYAL SHOUT (SCRATCHED)comes out of a very good form race. He beat home Altai Warrior and Spinhro who have run very well since. Can push forward from the gate and hopefully slot in 4th or 5th one off the fence.

MISS IMAGICA and DREAM’N’IGNITE probably the best of the leaders. MISS IMAGICA is in ok after the claim while DREAM’N’IGNITE ($4.20) drops a long way back in grade. ‘The Prophet’ likes DREAM’N’IGNITE and I think they could easily sit 3rd with cover and that’s their best chance of winning.

Not sure what to make of ROCKET TO GLORY. Was once a super horse, changed stables and I expected more when joining Gollan.. Not keen to put in, but bit wary to leave out?

AQUATORIAL, RUN LEICA DANE, RIN WITH (SCRATCHED) and VIKING HEART can all fly home if it’s possible to win from back there. That’s the question, how’s the track playing by this stage?

*After scratchings I think TUNAHOG now has to be given thoughts for quaddies etc..

 

 

ON TOP-   7-DREAM’N’IGNITE

Hardest To Beat: 11,14,

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 2 No.1 LONDAHERO

Best e/w: Brisbane Race 7 No.4 RISK AVERSION

 

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

1,2,5 —– 1,6 —– 3,4 ,17 —–1,7,8,9,11,14

 

 

THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Brisbane Race 8 No.7 DREAM’NIGNITE

Sydney Race 8 No.9 INVENTIVE

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

Will post up later.

 

*GOOD LUCK TO ALL!