‘The Punt’ 17th March

Print Friendly

A huge weekend ahead. I would usually try to get a run-down of the feature race interstate up for you guys but I have a thousand things on this weekend and am very time poor!

*Be sure to check back after scratchings Saturday morning.

The track should be around the dead – slow range in Brisbane and that is always difficult to know hoe affected Eagle Farm will be. I don’t think it’s a great betting day and I’d be choosing my races carefully. As always I’m just trying to be honest and this is a day I will watch the first few and then possibly work a quaddie out when you know what the tracks doing. I am not real confident on steering you guys into many races!

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

FRIDAY NIGHT
DOUBLE RANGA CANTERBURY R2 No.5 (1250m)

SATURDAY
FOLDING GEAR  BENDIGO R7 No.16 –Come back well and in for good prep.
DODGING EDDIE EAGLE FARM R4 No.15 Very suitable race if he gets a start.
ALTAI WARRIOR EAGLE FARM R8 No.10 –Would rather it dry, but if he runs will be competitive.
SHELFORD RANDWICK R2 No.2 Really like this guy as a horse even though this looks very tough.
MOSHEEN RANDWICK R6 No.17 –Superstar who will be right in the market and hard to beat.

DIAGO EAGLE FARM Rc4 No.4- On the back-up and hard to beat.

 

All Prices quoted are TattsBet prices at time of typing.

*I’d suggest the first few  races are sit and watch races which can give you a guide on how the track will play..

Race 1: Ordinary way to start the day. Small field over a mile. Tactics can play a part here and a couple of the main chances have 3kg claiming apprentices on? Simply have to have STEEL ZIP on top as I was surprised that he toughed it out last start. It was pretty impressive and he is the one to beat. ROCKDALE can roll along in front and even though his form is horrible he will get the pace and track to suit, so he can be cheeky at odds. Every other horse has claims but OKANE probably the obvious one coming off a good win.

*Won’t be betting in a race like this to kick the day off.

On Top: 2-STEEL ZIP

 

Race 2: Way too many 1st starters for me to even consider getting involved. Watch it for a guide to the future..

PASS

 

Race 3: A staying race that I don’t want to fall for again! I will be working around MARKED, BREAK THE ICE, ATTICA and WINMARA who are all in good form and possible winners on their day. OUR RECIDIVEST  has some hope and BIG GIRLS DON’T CRY comes right into it with the track having the sting out.

*I’m staying out.

Top picks: 1,2,3,8

 

Race 4: This looks as though it will be a good betting race. The horse we have been following is BEGGIN and she is a winning hope. I don’t have her on top today but she looks well placed and this is a chance to see how strong she is at the 1800m late in her prep. Being by Benicio you’d expect her to run it out and if she can have a bit of luck from the gate she will trouble them and I love the clever claim with smart young apprentice Anthony Allen on board. DIAGO is on the back-up and is the one I will put on top. He ran well last week after 5wk between runs and I rekon this is spot on for him. EMOTICON is always thereabouts and should get a good run for Byrne from gate 3. DODGING EDDIE is the big question. He drops 1.5kg on his last run and his past two have been excellent runs and pointers to this. I see EF 1800m his perfect trip. He is unknown if the track is slow and that’s the only reason I don’t have him on top. BANG ON probably the best of the rest, but keen to work around the four selections here.

*Depending on prices I wouldn’t shy away from backing a couple the win.

On Top: 4-DIAGO

Hardest To Beat: 15-DODGING EDDIE, 2-EMOTICON

 


Race 5: You guys are gonna get sick of me telling you I’m not keen, but this is a lottery. A heap of these 1st or 2nd up and it’s hard to get a guide on how they are going because they ran on the day it poured rain and although the track says dead it was FAR worse than that and was downgraded straight after. The top 3 are class, but TRUMP(SCRATCHED) hasn’t trialled, BOYS ON TOUR mixes his form terribly but was impressive last time. If he blew them away again I would flinch, but if he was beaten by 5L I wouldn’t either! ABSOLON (SCRATCHED)was bad 1st up but can he bounce back with a gear change? I’d suspect he can. VIKING HEART is the horse on the way up, but he’d rather a firmer track and may be looking for further. ANOTHER SUPERIOR is the one I have landed on as she will be fitter for the two runs back and she does boat a win over Emmalene last time in work. STRIP SHOW is a handy little filly and may be worth keeping safe. FLYING JET is getting back to her best since the stable change. If the track happens to be rated slow a blowout in this leg of the quaddie would not surprise.

On Top: 8-ANOTHER SUPERIOR

Hardest To Beat: 1-BOYS ON TOUR,

 

Race 6: Happy to stick with CARRY TO FORTUNE although I’m not up with why it and WARRIOR GIRL were scratched over the last couple of weeks. CARRY TO FORTUNE is simply a speed machine and even with a bit of pace engaged, she can sprint on straightening and be very hard to catch with 52.5kg on her back. I think you then look for the class to click in with a few of these. BORDER REBEL and FALINO )prob run at coast) come off long breaks but both are Listed or better horses and will sprint well fresh. GUNDY SON and FUNTANTES will make their presence felt and will be coming hard late. HAIZUM may well start over the odds and has a great 2nd up record! BOLD GLANCE (SCRATCHED)may want further now, but not keen to write him off. FALVELINA was better than it reads on paper last start and may add value to first 4’s.

*Tricky, but feel Carry To fortune can be hard to run down.

On Top: 12-CARRY TO FORTUNE

Hardest To Beat:  2-BORDER REBEL,  5-HAIZUM.

 

Race 7: WIN A MILLION looks the best bet on the card to me. She is in great form, comes off a dominant win and I can’t find a way for her to get beat other than bad luck. Butler claims 3kg and she gets a lovely run throughout. Ticks every box.  Interesting Toby Edmonds choses to start CHART 1st up here over 1400m suggesting to me that he will be fit enough and does like the sting out. He could be the danger. MACHINATION  has always had class but hard to line up cushion form? SAM’S TOWN and TEA TATTLE both take a couple of runs to produce anything like their best, but they are now reaching that point and I’d expect them to run well and improve sharply.

Best Bet: 1-WIN A MILLION

 

 

Race 8: Prepared to forgive OAK STREET on its latest effort. Has trialled well and showed plenty of talent prior. Like most of the Commands bred it will love the juice in the track and I think it may represent some value. Matt Dunn told us in our article through the week he has an opinion of this horse and I think he’s a beauty. He has some big positives and just as many negatives. He gets back and will get a long way out of his ground from gate (21) and he would rather it dry even though he’s run ok before on the wet. The positive is he was enormous at Doomben and Eagle Farm will suit better and he drops 7.5kg on that win! REQUESTED will push forward and look the winner at the 200m. DE BOIS is capable of going close and was nearly a month between runs last start so should improve and has a nice weight drop to help. KING OF THE CONGO always a chance in this type of race and the claim for Wood helps, as does the big EF straight. GUNNER KNOX will need a lot of luck, but he has won better races than this. Many other chances but they are what I see as the  main hopes.

On Top: 8-OAK STREET

Next Best: 10-ALTAI WARRIOR, 6-REQUESTED,

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 7 no 1- WIN A MILLION

Brisbane Race 8 no 8- OAK STREET

 

(It’s not a best bet but I do expect that MOMENT OF CHANGE can really improve in Randwick Guineas. 3rd up into this goal, Nolen back on top and a gear change. May not be able to beat MOSHEEN as she is a star, but he can run well and is around $20 in early markets)

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

1,5,8,11 — 2,4,5,7,12 — 1 — 6,8,10

 

RANDWICK Quaddie selections: $250,000 Jackpot on TATTSBET!

2,6,7,10 — 1,14,16,17 — 2,4,5,7 — 2,8,11

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Sydney Race 4 no 10 MAULES CREEK

Sydney Race 8 no 11 FORFEITURE

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

 

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 17 March 2012

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

RANDWICK (SR)

6

$26,086

RANDWICK GUINEAS

QD

RANDWICK (SR)

-

$250,000

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

**It’s been a big week on the site with some decent articles so check them out before you log off if you get the chance.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

*I’m off to the QTIS sales Sunday and Monday, so say hello if you spot me around the place!