‘The Punt’ 18th Feb

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Another ‘The Punt’ section rolls along and we search for more winners.  For those who checked in mid-week we got a couple of winner at Mornington which was a bit of a bonus.

I have done a little article you can find on the front page of brissyraces in regards to buying and racing horses etc. It is well worth a read for those interested in racing horses or getting shares with mate. So have a read if you fall into that bracket.

This weekend we are at Doomben with the rail out 1m and it looks as though it should be a decent days racing, although I’m not too keen to make best bets as it looks an even card. This time of year is pretty difficult when having a bet as the good horses have gone for a break and there are three or four below avg races on the card. But my job is to try and help find some winners, so let’s get down to it.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week: It is a big team this week again with runners everywhere. Probably too hard to back them all, and some are in some really hard races, but give serious thought to them as we don’t blackbook them for no reason.

  TOMBOY DOOMBEN R3 No.4
JUDY’S JOY DOOMBEN R4 No.9
AROUND THE WORLD DOOMBEN R8 No.14

THEFT DOOMBEN R8 No.8
UNDER THE HAT FLEMINGTON R3 No.13
MOSHEEN FLEMINGTON R4 No.1
GREAT DAME FLEMINGTON R4 No.3
THE GOOD WIFE FLEMINGTON R4 No.7
THAT’S THE ONE FLEMINGTON R5 No.6
EMMALENE WARWICK FARM R7 No.8

 

SUNDAY at SUNSHINE COAST:
MR MOTO SUNSHINE COAST R5 No.5
LADY AGULHAS SUNSHINE COAST R7 No.11

ALL PRICES ARE TATTSBET PRICES AT TIME OF TYPING.

Race 1: The market has this race pretty much worked out. I will not be getting too involved, but I’d be working around 1,2,4,6. OPTIONALITY will work across and try to lead at a good clip, while GENERAL JACKSON from gate 1 will do it’s best to hold the lead. That will set up a hot pace which means GIBBERER is some hope and the well-bred HOT SHOW who comes off a trial win is the knockout horse. Hard to split them, but that’s what I’d work around, and I do have GIBBERER on top in another 2yr old race that doesn’t look too strong.

On Top :  4-GIBBERER

Next Best: 1-OPTIONALITY, 6-HOT SHOW, 2-GENERAL JACKSON

 

 

Race 2: Saturday staying races in brissy, you can leave me out of most of them and that’s the case again. It is made hard because on paper it looks as though RARE SUBJECT again gets a cheap lead in front. There was good money for it at big odds when it won by 4L last start and can run well again. It does however go up 3kg. CONTRACT CATERER, BREAK THE ICE and MARKED all come out of that same race and were well beaten. They can turn the tables here, but would need some pace on and that is hard to see that eventuating. OUR RECIDIVIST is an interesting runner getting out to a suitable trip now. His last run was better than it looked and I have him as the smoky here.

**I will sit and watch, and that’s the way I’d steer people as I personally think there are better races to bet on.

 

 

Race 3: This has the makings of a good race and a battle of tactics between some top jockey’s. TOMBOY resumes from a let-up with Jimmy Byrne aboard and has opened up short on Tatts. She has got a lot of things in her favour including the good draw. There is not much pace here and I have FANGLES getting an easy lead. That will give him every chance and although I don’t have him in the same class as a couple of these, with the lead and in form he can run a cheeky race. VIPERA GOLD is another who gets a few favours and is in career best form coming off a couple of cracking runs at Listed level (including a win). LEMIEUX will have supporters as he rises in grade with the light weight.  POOR JUDGE is also going ok, but does mix his form, so hard to catch. Even with a slow tempo resuming over 1350, from a bad gate I will still be on board MYSTICAL GREY because I think he is real class. If you had a Heathcote or Birchley next to its name you would be taking half the price, but as it is he is a nice e/w price and he will be flying late. If Browne can have him within a few lengths on straightening I’d be very confident of him running over them. He did win an easy race 1st up last prep at the Sunny coast by 5L, and has won 3 of 6 fresh also.

*Happy to go Mystical Grey at the odds as favourite seems too short for mine.

On Top: 2-MYSTICAL GREY

Hardest To Beat: 4-TOMBOY

Others: 3-FANGLES, 6-VIPERA GOLD

 

Race 4: Wow, there are 5 or 6 good quality horses here and all have a winning chance. AMBER’S CROWN was super last start when going down by a nose. She’s a really nice type and well worth thought here. BARRASSIE BROTHER looks very promising from the Schweida yard and its last two wins have looked awesome, albeit in easier grade than this. KAHUI can be forgiven for his last run and was good 1st up, so give him a bit of time. JUDY’S JOY is a blackbooker but I hoped they would go to an easier race because she would simply win! But she can still win here with some luck from the gate. WELL CREDENTIALLED flew coming from last and Bell stays on instead of jumping on the stablemate, so that may be a guide. I’ve landed on ANOTHER SUPERIOR who had a terrific campaign last time and that time in work she flew late 1st up to get within a length. She has trialled very well leading into this assignment and with Colless on board and 55.5kg I think she looks a decent e/w bet. MISS STASH will be up in the firing line and is worth thought for tri’s etc.

*Great race and I will be having something on Another Superior.

On Top: 3-ANOTHER SUPERIOR ew

Next Best: 2-BARRASSIE BROTHER, 9-JUDY’S JOY, 1-AMBERS CROWN,8-MISS STASH

 

 

 

Race 5: The start of a $159,000 JACKPOT Quaddie on www.tatts.com Happy to back two horses in this. SPIRIT OF FLATLEY gets every favour from gate 1, has Taylor on top, decent weight and recent form around Stratford and Whateverwhenever. I have him about 5th the fence and he will rattle late when others are tiring. One that will be tiring as it is just a speed machine is ALL THAT. Even though he may paddle late he is my other winning chance. The 1010m at Doomben is perfect for him and if Anthony Allen can get one cheap sectional at any stage he will take a hell of a lot of running down, and at $9 looks ‘overs’ to me. CHIPP’N’AWAY for Toby has improved each run and the horse he beat easy last start run well again mid-week. He is definitely a chance. HYDE PARK (SCR)probably the next best and looks big value for quaddie players looking to go wide. Away from them horses like REQUESTED are always chances, but I’m happy to roll with the four mentioned.

On Top: 1-ALL THAT  + 3-SPIRIT OF FLATLEY

Next Best: 10-CHIPP’N’AWAY

 

 

Race 6: Many won’t agree with me, but this could be the race to ruin quaddies. There is just ROCKDALE to again roll along in front with possibly Colless pushing up on CHILLED to sit outside him. I looked for reason’s to not tip the obvious here in STEEL ZIP, but he just seems to get to many favours to not have on top. Stewart can park on the leaders backs and get the cheapest run possible to give him every chance to run the 1600m right out. He will be hard to beat with the main query being the 57kg impost as he hasn’t won over 1600m and is only a little fella. LUCKY LUNA is flying at present and after the claim becomes a legitimate chance again. He has had four starts at the track/trip and never finished worse than 2nd. Likely improvers are HUMMA, ELUSIVE PORT and SHAMARDASHING who I think can all win the race.

*This race is almost impossible to get a guide on as many are having their 3rd runs back from spells and some may just jump up out of the ground. For that reason I am going wider in quaddie, and I won’t be having a bet in this race!

On Top: 3-STEEL ZIP

 (but rather watch on + wide in quad)

 

Race 7: I have again looked for reasons BIG BAD JOEL can get beaten. The 59kg? Maybe. The horrible win strike rate? Also maybe. But he is in great form in solid Sydney races and gets Cassidy on board and drew the 1 marble to possie up just behind the pace. I still have to put him on top. Lots of his main dangers have drawn the carpark which makes his gate all that much better. BEGGIN is a horse we have followed and I have a lot of time for, but another bad gate (18) throws a 1000 questions up again. I think Bryan Dais will leave it up to Tim Bell and he will probably go forward. I agree that may be her best chance of winning, but she doesn’t ping the gates usually and I am dying to see how she runs when ridden patiently behind midfield and get the widest on straightening. I admit that may not be her best chance of winning, but we would know a lot more about her. OUR HUSSEY is right up to this but will need a gem from Hammersley to get across and get cover. RAPID LEICA DANE is capable on his day and if the pace is silly up front he will sprout wings late! SNIP’N’DUCK has Browne on board and I think he will really suit this horse, so keep it safe. GEBLITZ, DAI KON and even TELESTO WARRIOR have blowout chances in a doozy of a leg for quad players.

On Top: 1-BIG BAD JOEL

Roughie: 16-BEGGIN

Others: 8-SNIP’N’DUCK, 12-RAPID LEICA DANE.

 

 

Race 8: If you are alive in the quaddie I think it will be for plenty. I just have them going at a moderate tempo in this and THEFT gets all the favours and with natural improvement is the one they all have to beat. Munce stays on and he loves the track, loves the trip and on a real upward spiral for Tony Gollan. In saying all that I still think THE REVELLER is worth another go and at $10 I will be having something on. Dunn has freshened him up and Colless will ride him cold at the back and come with one late run at them, don’t write him off just yet. PURETTAN will sit behind speed but will need a touch of luck to get in, if he does he is a winning chance. OAKFIELD COMMANDS(SCR) brings good Sydney form and has started fav in 3 of his last 4 runs down there. AROUND THE WORLD looked awesome last start against her own sex and will be making a run with THE REVELLER. ROCK HOME LATE, COME SAID THE BOY and STEEL DRAGON can all had cases made for them….

*Very open race. Think Theft is the one to beat, but like the $10 on offer for The Reveller and think that’s overs.

On Top: 13-THE REVELLER e/w

Hardest To Beat: 8-THEFT, 14-AROUND THE WORLD

 

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Really not overly keen to make many specials in Brissy. Most of the ones I like up her will be good e/w value, and I’d steer people into reading each race preview and see which ones grab them.

 

Interstate best:

Sydney Race 5 no 1 BEADED      ($2.90)

Melbourne Race 3 no 13 UNDER THE HAT    ($4.20 looks right price)

 

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:  -Touched up after scratching, and check back 8.30am QLD tomorrow.

1,3,10 — 1,2,3,4,7 — 1,8,12,16 — 8,13,14

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Melbourne Race 2 no 4 KALLOGG

Melbourne Race 3 no 13 UNDER THE HAT

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 18 February 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

DOOMBEN (BR)

-

$159,680

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M2 TO M3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember to tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing through the week, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

 

Remember to check in for the interviews through the week, and if we have some mail midweek they will be posted at the bottom of the articles..

**Also note there are two BLACKBOOKERS running Sunday that should go very close.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo