‘The Punt’ 1st September

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‘The Punt’ section is back for another week!

Thankyou to all the punters who touched base to let me know they had a winning day Wednesday with the midweek preview. It can be extremely hard to find any value, but there were enough winners to have a good day. Cheers.

It’s all about finding winners Saturday so let’s get our head into some form. Just a note that this meeting is very even and would simply take too long to comment on a whole heap of runners. For that reason I am simply focusing on what I see as the main few, so if I don’t comment on a runner your thinking about, it may just be an open race.

 

The Rail is out 1M and we should be racing on a Good 3.

 

We have $100,000 JACKPOT QUADRELLA’s in Brisbane and Melbourne on TATTSBET so I will put selections up for both at the bottom of the article.

Blackbookers: (A small team today today)

September 01
BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL CAULFIELD R2 No.9 (1400m)
LUCKYGRAY CAULFIELD R6 No.8 (1400m)
NOCTURNELLE ROSEHILL R1 No.1 (1400m)
PEAL OF BELLS ROSEHILL R6 No.9 (1800m)

 

**All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.**


Race 1:

PACE- A race void of pretty much any pace. Unless a jockey makes a decision to put a horse into the race early this should be leader dominated.

 

Because of the pace and the fact RACING HEART  $4.60 gets such an easy lead he is very hard to go past. It was a good, tough win on a dry surface last start and he drops 1.5kg on that run. Take nothing away from Matheson getting the ride, but the horse did seem to get along with A.Allen well.

SAINT ENCOSTA $4.20 is going very well, he drops 3.5kg from his last run and meets RACING HEART 2kg better off here.

TOPPING $3.60 had a trip to Sydney where he ran well in a better race than this. He jumps to the 2100m and may be better after the run, but he only has to run up to the Sydney race to go close.

**They are the clear top three in my head.. Wait till you see some prices and take it from there.

 

ON TOP- See where the money goes: 2- RACING HEART, 3-TOPPING, 4-SAINT ENCOSTA

 


Race 2:

PACE- Very tricky here. No pace again on paper.

 

HIDDEN KISSES may be one of the leaders with GREY ASSIGNMENT, but that is a query?

I feel HIDDEN KISSES can win here but think she is a better horses ridden with a sit as she seems to hit the line far better when that’s the case. For that reason I’m not too keen to take a short quote.

GREY ASSIGNMENT, SKATING ON ICE and HOUR OF PERIL all have chances but your guessing where they end up in the run..

Same goes for SATCH who I have a lot of time for and who should run well if he gets the right run. He was badly held up last start and hit the line hard. Even though he jumps in grade, he drops 5.5kg from his last outing. If he was double figures I’d consider a small wager on him. Otherwise it looks even.

**Too many questions for me to get heavily involved here.


ON TOP- (Not keen- Possibly 11-SATCH at the big odds)


Race 3:

PACE- Nothing silly here but it should be run to give most horse a chance.

 

Tough race will a heap of different formlines. ANTARCTIC DREAM and CONGO bumped heads last start with ANTARCTIC DREAM winning the battle by knockout. She can repeat the dose without surprising but has to lump 58kg this time?

CONGO meets her 2kg better off and I believe was given no hope in the run last start. Many have sacked the horse but I wouldn’t be jumping off too soon. His run was good and he can win at double figure odds.

TRAKSTAR looked like a horse still learning the caper and screaming out for the 1400m at E-F. He has a bright future and is just another genuine winning chance.

ACCIDENTAL was smashed from $10 into $3.60 at the midweeks last start and is obviously starting to put it together.

Les Ross has MISHANI LADYHAWKE and MISHANI STEALTH engaged. MISHANI LADYHAWKE was huge on debut where she dropped out the back and flew along the fence. She will take a heap of improvement from that and should be able to sit closer with the tempo of this over 1400m compared to the 1000m last start. MISHANI STEALTH has raced in far easier races but won them convincingly.

So where does that leave us??? Good question. I won’t be pushing punters out of the way to get on, let’s just say that. I will be having something small on CONGO at the $11, but there are about 8 winning chances and nothing would surprise!

 


ON TOP-   1-CONGO, 7-TRAKSTAR, 6- ANTARCTIC DREAM, 15-MISHANI LADYHAWKE


Race 4:

PACE-CARRY TO FORTUNE, SPURTASTIC and SHAFEEQ burn the turf early and set a genuine tempo. All horses should have their chance.

 

I made LATIN NEWS one of the early weekend specials on RadioTab on Thursday as he looks to have a distinct class edge on these. He has only won 3 of 27 starts but importantly every one of those wins has been 1st up! He has raced in far better company and gets the gun run in transit for Brisbane’s best jockey.

HAIZUM is an underrated sprinter and I think he is the main chance to spoil the party if there is one. He was great 1st up and has an excellent 2nd up record also.

*Clear top two as I see them.


ON TOP-     2-LATIN NEWS,   3-HAIZUM

Race 5:

PACE- 1,4,5,7 are all jump and run speedsters. Plenty of other pace also but this will be run at a break neck speed setting it up for something to swoop. **UPDATE- 5,7 now scratched and although that does take some pace out of the race it should still be a good tempo, just not break-neck like it would have been if they ran**

 

I think the horse that gets that run is PURE PERRFECTION $4.50. A few good judges liked her last start and her run was enormous. She drew the carpark, eased back and gave the leaders an impossible start but rocketed home. Gate 4, Munce stays on and a hectic pace gives her every chance to pick up a Saturday victory in town. Gollan has them flying at present which is always a help!

ONE OUTED is a roughie to consider in exotics and is not the worst $26 pop in today that’s for sure. COUP RAYVAN and GOLDEN TRINKETS should also like the pace on and should get their chance to run home. OUTBACK LEGEND and ALL THAT are good frontrunners if the track is playing that way but they may bring each other undone if they cut at each other.

**With the scratchings horses like ALL THAT and JAVELENTIA who will be up on pace come into the race a lot better**


ON TOP-    11-PURE PURRFECTION, 10-GOLDEN TRINKETS, 8-COUP RAYVAN


Race 6:

PACE-DIENEKES will try to cross from gate 15 and slow them up midrace if possible. There may be a touch more pace here though and it should be genuine early.

 

I always thought he was better ridden back, but his effort last start was very good. He seems to have improved this time in and if Matheson can get a cheap sectional or two in the run he can win. He and Transporter gapped the rest of the field which is a good sign.

FLEET RIANE was 3rd in that race and should get an ok run here again. WHITE PHOSPHORUS was 4th in that event after being wide all the way and hitting the line well. Even though he hasn’t won for a while $21 is generous in a field like this for a white hot trainer.

ERINSEA is a good quality Northern Rivers mare who ran well behind Beggin at Grafton before a good 3rd in the Coffs Cup. The gate means she probably has to go back a bit here, but don’t underestimate.

HUSH POWER is right in the market but I have to admit I expected a bit more last start..


ON TOP-   1-DIENEKES, 11-WHITE PHOSPHORUS, 6-FLEET RIANE, 2-ERINSEA


Race 7:

PACE- FLINDERS CITY (SCR)leads with STARLIN, JET STYLE and KORANOVSKY getting great runs behind her. They should all get a slight advantage the way this is run.

 

This is the most even race of the quaddie and there may be some value here. I will be having something small on INTERVIEW. He is a late maturing son of Encosta De Lago and although his 2nd up record looks ordinary he could nearly have won 2nd up last prep but was severely hampered at the 200m. Just think the $17 is tempting.

FLINDERS CITY (SCRATCHED) is flying, CATASHEE meets her 4.5kg better off this time around which obviously makes her a big hope.

I can never catch SANTO DE LAGO but I’d respect if money came for it with Lloyd on board.

BEEN BROKE BEFORE is $11 and is a pretty good Nth Qlder. He has got a good finish and Stewart is on top.

JET STYLE impressive at the coast. MAGIC TARTAN is knocking on the door. MR ORIENT, STARLIN and CHART all capable on their day.

**As I said this is the most open race of the day and I’d be shopping for value!


ON TOP-   2-INTERVIEW, 6-CATASHEE, 14-JET STYLE, 11-KORANOVSKY


Race 8:

PACE- Plenty of pace here and some drawn wide who will have to work hard to cross. For that reason I’ve settled on a few who get cheap runs.

 

The market has this race spot on with GOLDEN CASH, SOLEBID and FLYING JET at the top of the market. Just leaning GOLDEN CASH with Lloyd to ride from a good gate and importantly back to 1200m which is his go.

SOLEBID has put in two great efforts this prep and they can sit right behind the speed and get all the favours.

FLYING JET is hard to catch but off a good break has the ability to blow them away if right. If there is money for her it would be a great pointer.

BY CHOICE has the horror gate but has ability and looks to be the best roughie in the race if going wide, and TRISKELE is another who gets a good run and is more than capable on her day.

 


ON TOP- 4-GOLDEN CASH, 15-SOLEBID, 16-FLYING JET, 10-BY CHOICE

 


GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 4 No.2 LATIN NEWS

Brisbane Race 5 No.11 PURE PURRFECTION

Melbourne Race 5 No.1 GOLDEN ARCHER

 

Brisbane JACKPOT Quadrella numbers:

8,10,11 —– 1,2,6,11 —–2,6,10,11,12,14, —– 4,15,16

 


Melbourne JACKPOT Quaddie:

1 —– 3,8,10,11 —- 2,3,4,5,7,9,  —– 3,5,7,13

 


‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

**Melbourne Race 7 No.2 TANBY

**Sydney Race 8 No.3 EMOTIONAL CIRCUS

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION
for

Saturday, 1 September 2012

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
QD EAGLE FARM (BR) - $100,000 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8
QD CAULFIELD (MR) - $100,000 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8
         


POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
QD ALBION PARK (BT) - $47,176 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5
TT GLOBE DERBY (AT) - $8,059 RACES 4, 5 & 6
         


POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 THE GARDENS (CG) 8 $1,000 BLACK TOP FINAL

MARKET MOVERS AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON

EAGLE FARM

3/10 The Black Superman $21.0 to $13.0

3/15 Mishani Ladyhawke $10.0 to $8.0

5/11 Pure Perrfection $4.5 to $3.5

7/10 Been Broke Before $15.0 to $10.0

 

ROSEHILL

2/4 Proisir $2.5 to $2.3

5/1 Pierro $2.3 to $1.9

8/11 Rushing To Win $7.0 to $6.0

 

CAULFIELD

4/4 Elite Elle $2.7 to $2.35

5/7 DeeNGee $10.0 to $6.5

7/9 Mr O’Ceirin $10.0 to $8.0

8/1 Sneak A Peek $15.0 to $12.0

 


**I will add a link here later on where you can hear a few comments with AJ and he talks to Peter Ellis also on the Helter Skelter website..

 

Thanks for checking in and hopefully we can continue the run from Wednesday! Good Luck