‘The Punt’ 2/12 -DOOMBEN

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I don’t like pumping our own tyres but the whole team did well last week with a couple of $7 winners, a $2.80 winner (two best bets winning). We had three blackbookers win including one that touched $41 as well as ‘The prophet’ tipping 1/1 at $10.80 and Steve Hewlett having Crack Me Up as one of his best to top it off! Also a few midweek albeit at shorter quotes.

Hopefully we helped in some way. Let’s have a look at what is a good card, but BEWARE- RAIN AROUND

*I’ve done this preview around the Soft 6-7 mark so will really need some touching up if it lands in a different range.

*As always the preview will be up after 9am Saturday so be sure to check back in*

 

We were very keen last week but very few bets this week and contemplating leaving them alone all day.

Helsby's

 

Blackbookers:

(5 of our last 10 blackbookers have saluted)

Metis – Fri Dec 1 Ipswich R5- Has trialled well.

Sequondo – Fri Dec 1 Ipswich R5- Also a decent trial.

Diamonds Are – Fri Dec 1 Ipswich R6- Also in GC, nice horse.

Osbeck – Sat Dec 2 Doomben R3-Good trial but holding off (2yr old wet track)

Veranes – Sat Dec 2 Doomben R3- same comment as above

L’elu – Sat Dec 2 Doomben R9- Can be in the money.

Diamonds Are – Sat Dec 2 Gold Coast R8

 

 

Race 1:

Staying out here.

 

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Race 2:

Can start by saying unlikely to punt here also.

I’VE GOTTA NEL looks the obvious from the good gate and can be up on speed. Brown is good but gee I like Lloyd on this horse and he has lifted him a couple of times this prep. No spoil with 59kg and just enough queries for me to let him go around without me.

A couple of the main chances have drawn wide but may come into the race if there are scratchings.

*Not a race I’m that keen on but I have I’VE GOTTA NEL on top and the fact Shane is so keen gives me enough confidence to have a bet.

On Top:  1-I’VE GOTTA NEL $4

 

 

Race 3:

Well what are we meant to make of a 2yr old race where 10 of the 13 are first starters and they will be going around on a soft/heavy track.

OSBECK trialled very well apart from flopping out the gates, that’s always an issue but the way he moved up and went past in the straight says he will be hard to beat in this.

VERANES has had the two trials and the latest was a good trial where she put them away and was strong through the line. The 2nd horse in the trial has made his debut and finished 2nd at the Sunny Coast last Friday. Can be in the money.

KATY’S DAUGHTER comes from a very winning family around these parts and money trail may tell the storey there?

MIRACLES APLENTY has seen and won on a heavy track already which is one box ticked.

*Just watch market moves but they are the ones that interest me early on.

3-OSBECK and 12- VERANES interest me but not sure i bet.

 

 

Race 4:

This is an even race with very little between 4-5 of them.

If they all run BOOMWA will be stamped positive with the claim and burn early, BULLPIT may revert to his old tactics with Tegan on as well. Add to that ICE FROST going forward and you will have COUNTER MEAL/MISHANI EL LOBO both looking to park right behind that speed. Three backmarkers who can rattle late are IN HIS STRIDE, COURTZA KING and RINGS A ROCKSTAR showed enough last week to say he’s not far off a win.

He isn’t one of mine but it would be fair to say IN HIS STRIDE is the most talented horse in the race but he finds it very hard to win and with 59.5kg I won’t be backing him. It’s no big knock as the race will be run to suit and this is easier and a good drop in grade.

COURTZA KING will be back also and although he has won at Doomben I’d love him on a big track. When he can stay in touch he has a great turn of foot. Will handle conditions and gets the race run to suit. Opened $3.50 and that seems more than short enough.

COUNTER MEAL could be the value if it is a heavy track, he has flippers and improves lengths on the wet. Don’t be surprised if he runs a race at $13.

MISHANI EL LOBO trialled well, raced well fresh and gets the gun run.

RINGOS A ROCKSTAR showed a glimpse of his better form last time but got his head to the side. A chance here but I feel he could have been placed better to win.

*Might have backed COURTZA KING at a better price but really want to wait until Saturday to see what horses run as the speed map could be turned upside down.

 

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Race 5:

Those that follow the site will remember I thought PRETTY FAST was a good filly and I tipped her unsuccessfully over our carnival. Of course she has returned as a 3 yr old and is unbeaten winning 3/3 this time in work. Good speed here but she can sit outside lead or a pair behind and I don’t think this race is very strong. Ran 1:09:50 last start and about 5L quicker than the other 1200m race on the day. She should be take care of them all things being equal.

We made INITIALIZE a best when the races were called off but that was over 1050m which I felt was ideal, 1200m fresh not so good for her but she has talent! Last 50m the query.

I thought DREAM KISSES went ok fresh but it was bottomless there and I’m always a bit wary backing horses off tracks like that fresh. I feel she may well be the main danger to the fav and meets COOROI CHASE 5kg better off. That horse has flippers so watch out if it is a heavy 10.

On Top: 3-PRETTY FAST $2.40

Hardest To Beat:  1-DREAM KISSES

 

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Race 6:

Another even type of race with a few chances.

I have landed on AQUA VITE as I simply think he is handy and when Fradd missed the jump and sat back/wide it was game over last week but he still had the audacity to hit the line. I’m sure he has a Saturday race in him and from a better gate with the sting out and the feather weight I have to have something on here. (Has drifted alarmingly late both city runs and been beaten. Hoping there might be a positive move this time!)

NO ANNAMOSSITY is looking for 4 straight wins and has returned very well after injury. This is again suitable. Ruby Ride produced a great steer last time but it isn’t ideal having apprentices on back markers and this horse might again be spotting them a start. One of the main chances.

Well REVALDOR was backed when they predicted rain about 6 weeks ago and it never arrived. Was then $21 into $5 twice and they called the races off the race before she was meant to go around. Last week she finally got to run and touched $51 before saluting. Edge out of the track and $7 about her right price here, loves the wet tracks.

Chances don’t stop there, MISHANI PHEONIX won as a short priced fav in Murwillumbah and drops 7.5kg here. Been in the money 6 of 7 runs this prep.

BRACTEATE has been running ok in the staying races but from gate 3 can be competitive in this.

PRIVATE HERO won fresh and has to be respected for Symons and Laxon, while EIGHT BELOW and VOLTIERE LUMIERE come off solid efforts.

*Happy to back AQUA VITE again around the $4 and hope he can prove me right that he is up to Saturday grade.

On Top: 15-AQUA VITE $4

Hardest To Beat: 9-REVALDOR, 2-NO ANNAMOSSITY

 

 

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Race 7:

Good sort of race and I was very keen to see PIERATA in but this might be more competitive than I first thought.

SPEED: BRING IT HOME POP (gate 4) goes forward, DAZZLING RED (9) wants to be in the first couple of pairs, EISMANN is the likely leader from gate 2 and PIERATA will want to make the most of gate 1 and hold a spot. That should all make it a decent tempo and all should get their chance.

SAINT PATRICKS DAY meets BRING IT HOME POP 2.5kg better off at the weights here and that may have been the difference on the bog track last start. Has had the two runs back and raced close enough last time out to say he will be within striking distance from gate 6 and ready to show his best. BRING IT HOME POP is one that holds form and after kicking off with a win he will be on speed and hard to catch again.

PIERATA is classy and the latest trial when the blinkers went on was very strong and a great pointer for this. If the track is in the soft range he will be my selection but if we get to a Heavy surface I’m likely to leave the race alone, or watch how the track is playing on the day and go from there. (Update- QRIC have just said he doesn’t wear blinkers here) personally I think he is a better horse in them so I’ll let him go around.

CAPITAL GAIN is a G1 winner and the set weights are ideal. 1200m around Doomben isn’t ideal but if he brings the form from last prep he will be the one sprouting wings late.

UPDATE: I heard a really good interview Steve Hewlett did with Paul Butterworth (CAPITAL GAIN) and it cleared a few things up. Horse shifted a shoe and may well be the reason the trial was just fair late. Blinkers stay on here and hoping to race midfield. All things considered I may have a small e/w bet at the $7.50 on the proven G1 winner returning.

Value: 1-CAPITAL GAIN $7.50 e/w

Hardest To Beat: 6-PIERATA, 4-SAINT PATRICKS DAY, 2-BRING IT HOME POP

 

 

Race 8:

The days feature and shapes as a good form reference going forward.

Last week everything pointed to Khalama when she had a good gate, good jock, trip suited and couldn’t believe she was $7. This week CALANDA has the good gate, good jock, fair weight, trip that suits and everything pointing his way but you have to take $3.40 and I think that is skinny enough. He was an improving type last prep and went on to finish the prep with a win in the Listed Ramornie (bless him). I have been keen to follow. The fresh run at Caulfield said he’d come back well and he was very good at Flemington Cup week when on the worst side of the track. He is the one they all have to beat.

MONSIEUR GUSTAVE  just keeps winning! Can’t knock the horse, I do think this is another step up and he has the 58kg but Brooker will be positive from the wide gate and put him in the race. If he can win from out there with the weight it will be some sort of win.

EGYPTIAN SYMBOL (SCRATCHED) interests as well. Was good enough in a couple of G1’s last time in work and is a genuine G3 mare who at her best is better than most of these. May need a little bit of luck from gate 10 and not sure she runs if it’s really wet but respect if she does.

MOST IMPORTANT made some ground last time but needs to improve again while SIEGFRIED had the best prep of his career when last in work, just watch any money trails there.

*Looks CALANDA but would rather a soft than a heavy.

On Top: 5-CALANDA $3.40

 

 

 

Race 9:

Leaving this race alone until closer to start time.

 

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Race 6 No.15-AQUA VITE $4

Race 8 No.5- CALANDA $3.10

(But not as keen as we were with the best last week)

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Sandown Race 9 No.18- SEVEN YEAR REWARD

 

STEVE HEWLETTS BEST:

Race 1-4 THE RUMOUR FILE

Race 3-3 OSBECK

Race 7-6 PIERATA

 

SHANE CIURLEOS BEST:

Race 2 No.1- I’VE GOTTA NEL $4

 

ned protest