‘The Punt’ 21st Jan

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Another weekend has flown by and we are back to Eagle Farm for what looks like a great betting day! The main question is the weather? We have been told there are chances of showers for Friday and Saturday, so how much we get will play a big part. I will try to cover the conditions as well as possible as it can rule a few chances out if it gets too wet. (im sure it will be around the ‘dead’ range) I have been able to tweak a few things to improve my setup, so I have had a lot of time to run a rule over the days racing and confident we can have a good day.

RAIL—TRUE.. TRACK-Dead 4.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week: There are only two, but both can win.

 HEADLESS EAGLE FARM R1 No.4—Tough race but good chance.

TOMBOY EAGLE FARM R6 No.9 – She looks well placed and with some luck on straightening should win.
THE REVELLER EAGLE FARM R8 No.8 –If the tracks dry I’d expect him to go very close.

REILLY BLUE- EAGLE FARM R7 No.4 – Made a stack of ground last start and this trip suits.

*For those new to the site, this is my opinion and you can choose to use it how you want. All prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing.

Race 1: (SCRATCH 13,14,15,16)Let me start by saying I’m staying clear, but I will try to inform you as best I can. OPTIONALITY should run well again. Hasn’t missed a place yet and goes hard early. The last 50m is her question, but she can win. HEADLESS is our blackbooker so must be respected. She had no luck in a good race last start. DOUBTFILLY also comes out of that race when well beaten, but did have support. CASINO CARD and SHAMROCK SLIPPER come through the same GC race and both were impressive that day. Of the unraced horses SHOW DIVA looked outstanding in a trial and with the in-form Hammersley on top has to be a big chance.

*Tough way to kick the day off. Will just see how the blackbooker goes..

Blackbooker-4 HEADLESS

 

Race 2: (SCRATCH 1)In my opinion GOLD SHEARS simply has to have some luck from the gate to win. There is not much pace in this race and if they ride her positively she should win. However I don’t get to choose how they ride him, so it is wait and see if we hear tactics before race day. It’s hard to make him a special without knowing connections plans, but she may go in. She opened $4.20 and $1.76 on TattsBet and that is a great price. KUMALI has a horrible wet track record, but if the track dries out he may be the one to beat. He comes off two straight wins and looks to be flying. I’LLBETRICKED is also going for the hat-trick and can be somewhere on pace. MARKED, DUEL SHOW (especially wet), IN A TANGLE and EQUISSENTIAL can all fill minor placings if you play first fours.

On Top: 8-GOLD SHEARS e/w

 

Race 3 (SCRATCH 5)I’m never very keen on these staying races in Brisbane. I have been waiting for ROYAL REIGN to show something this prep as this race would be tailor made, however he has shown nothing that could make me put him on top. He did have a month between runs and went up 200m in distance, so he should improve lengths on that run though. MR LIGHT BLUE is the obvious way and all signs point to him, not that I see it as a great betting race. This is his pet trip and he is the best horse in the race! Seriously, outside that throw a dart. It really doesn’t grab me. Possibly GOLD RATING and EUREKA JACK.

*Average type of race.

On Top: 4-MR LIGHT BLUE

Next Best: 2- GOLD RATING, 1-ROYAL REIGN, 10-EUREKA JACK

 

Race 4: (SCRATCH 3,13)Great race that looks pretty easy to read from the outside (famous last words). FORTY ZIP will fire out and try to hold the lead from KILWINNING OPTION. KAHUI and BOODLES’N’BOODLES just behind that with EMPRESS ME, ALDINI and ROYAL SHOUT getting the runs of the race.  That has led me too EMPRESS ME. She looked really good on debut and then ran well in her 2nd start. She trialled enormously well recently and think she is a great e/w bet around $6.50 on www.tatts.com ! KILWINNING OPTION is a really smart North Queenslander and also attractive odds at $8.. It will be on pace and after going over its replay’s I’m convinced it’s the hardest to beat. The only issue is the 59kg it has to lump and give some decent horses a lot of weight, but don’t underestimate. ROYAL SHOUT has always promised a lot but found it hard to win. Gets it’s chance again here. FORTY ZIP was good winning last start but not sure why he hasn’t been seen for 6 weeks? WELL CREDENTIALLED will probably get back and seems to still be learning. I do have time for her, but will have to be good to catch these. Possibly. ALDINI showed great promise first prep, but was beaten 6 lengths first up. This is easier, but that’s a lot of ground to make up. KAHUI has come up as early favourite and that does surprise me to a degree? Has got an ordinary first up record, but did trial very well. PEPPERED BLACK would like it longer, but class will take him a long way.

*Think Empress Me is an up and comer who will run well at $6.50. May have a saver on Kilwinning option at the $8.

On Top: 12-EMPRESS ME

Hardest To Beat: 1-KILWINNING OPTION

Any2:    1+12.

 

Race 5: SCRATCH 4,5,11,15,16..Guaranteed speed here! Nearly all these would like to lead, and a lot of trainer’s have opted for apprentice’s to take a claim for weight relief. In these cases barriers can play a part, but you just want some type of cover and to not be working 3-4 wide the entire. Have put ALL THAT on top but think the $3.80 is almost too skinny to get involved. I do like him, but this is the tricky leg of the quadrella. BRULEUR gets the good gate and doesn’t spend a cent from there to sit on pace. $15 is pretty generous.. A loyal follower of the site has a share in SUCHABIMBO and it has enough pace and a decent gate to run a solid race at big odds. John Shelton doesn’t bring them here for a holiday. DEVIL’S MELODY has Colless on board and will take natural improvement from the run 1st up. Big chance. JESSICA’S DREAM led easily and won easily running good time at Coffs after about 6 month break. ORIGINATE has to be taken on trust if you feel that way. North Queenslanders LAMBERT $15 and SHOW THAT JAZZ $35 can run great races at huge odds and worth a lot of thoughts if going wide. PRIME COGNAC (SCR) will need a lot of luck from the gate and I’m prepared to risk. CRYSTAL DOLL is a 3 year old filly taking on the older horses, but this is not the strongest.

*Tricky race! Leaning to the topweight slightly, but think some at big odds worth a look.

On Top: 1-ALL THAT

Next Best: 13-JESSICA’S DREAM, 2-BRULEUR, 9-DEVIL’S MELODY

Roughie- 12-SHOW THAT JAZZ

Race 6: Looks TOMBOY’s race for the taking. Was solid last start and is looking for the 1500m now. Sounds silly but her main issue may be barrier 2. She will get a super run, but will need to get off the fence around the 500-600m mark to get clear running. In saying that, she does look the one. I mentioned in the early market selections yesterday that the $2.60 on Tatts will probably be as good as you will get as I expect her to start shorter on the day. LUCKY LUNA is going really well and will again run good. The downside is 14 starts at the track for only five 3rd placing’s. PROST has a good record here and always races well from good gates. Colless a big positive, but has to lump 58.5kg. NARCELO gets in with a great weight but must overcome the wide draw. SILENT MOVIE will take benefit from 1st up run and had a good prep last time in work. DIAGO improves lengths 2nd up and I’d expect him to do the same again. MR SLICK has been pretty solid in better races. EMOTICON worth some thought.

*Think she should prevail. Very wide outside her.

On Top: 9-TOMBOY

Next Best: 2-PROST, 1-LUCKY LUNA, 11-DIAGO

 

 

Race 7: Small field, but a good race and will be interesting to see tactics employed here. THE SIXTIES, TYCOON RULER and FANGLES fly early and should sit 1,2,3 in the running. PURETTAN 4th the fence and I’m sure Munce will try to hold the position 5th the outside which PATTIE’S MATE will also be looking to get. That little battle is important here. If REILLY BLUE gets that run then he will be very hard to beat. He comes off a dominant win and a fast finishing third in the GC race. He is a late bloomer like his half-brother (Carry Me Bluey) and is a deserved fav. OLLIE VOLLIE is $5 and he is the other winning chance in my eyes. They are the two I will take in the quaddie. He has been going terrific without having a lot of luck or getting the results. Comes off two Listed races where he has been beaten less than 1.5 lengths in both! PURETTAN goes well second up and is the 2nd favourite in early markets. Have a feeling SHAMARDASHING can sprint well fresh and will fly late!

On Top: 1-OLLIE VOLLIE

Next Best: 4-REILLY BLUE

Others for exotics: 8-PURETTAN, 6-SHAMARDASHING

 

Race 8: (SCRATCH 7,10,13,14,15)I can’t wait for this! You can’t get carried away with these and say that it’s a match race, but these really look the two. ACHIEVEMENTS and THE REVELLER raced last start and there was ¼ length between them in THE REVELLER’s favour. There is no doubt THE REVELLER should have put a length at least on ACHIEVEMENTS that day, but got caught up in traffic. On the other side of the coin Toby Edmonds told us in an article earlier this week (in case you want to read) that ACHIEVEMENTS has really improved from that run and that he is very happy with the horse. So who will win?? Good question. THE REVELLER is $3.50 and ACHIEVEMENTS $5.50. At those fixed prices I will probably back both of them the win. If you are an e/w punter ACHIEVEMENTS looks decent value. Pretty sure both will start shorter on the day. MONDEAN has his second start for the Heathcote and has a terrific second up record. I’M RUTHLESS is $31?? And I think should go in all trifecta’s as he’s right up to this. He always needs a couple of runs and 3rd up here will improve lengths! TEA TATTLE simply needs the pace on and has won 2 of 3 first up. MAGIC TARTAN and SKY EFFORT worth thought if having first four’s.

*Any rain would steer me to ACHIEVEMENTS, but can’t split them at the moment and will back both at the fixed odds available.

On Top: 2-ACHIEVEMENTS +8-THE REVELLER

 

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

(This week I feel it’s a great betting week, but not keen to make four or five specials) I will stick with some I made early market selections yesterday, (left All That out)and run with a skinny Quadrella I think can win.

Race 2 no. 8 GOLD SHEARS e/w

Race 4 no. 12 EMPRESS ME e/w

Race 6 no. 9 TOMBOY

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA:

1,2,9,12,13 –- 9 — 1,4 — 2,8

(For those going wider, I’d suggest 3,8,10,14 are possibilities in the first leg)

 

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Good news for the followers of ‘The Prophet’, he has a very big priced runner, and another at value e/w odds  to check out.

Melbourne Race 7 no. 10 RICHOMAN

Melbourne Race 8 no. 2 SIDECAR 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

For

Saturday, 21 January 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

FLEMINGTON (MR)

6

$44,147

KENSINGTON STAKES

QN

EAGLE FARM (BR)

8

$4,746

CLASS 6 HANDICAP

TT

EAGLE FARM (BR)

-

$5,994

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TT

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$11,410

RACES 3, 4 & 5

 

 

*Bet Responsibly

 

 

 

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Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo