‘The Punt’ 25th August – Doomben

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Doomben is the host for this weekend’s racing in Brisbane.

The Rail is out 3m the entire. Some rain is expected so we will wait till Saturday morning to see what surface we are on. I have done the form on a Dead track.

**Personally I think the best betting races are early in the day and that’s where I will be getting involved.

 

(There is a link at the very bottom of the page where you can also hear a quick preview, and also hear form expert Peter Ellis talk interstate racing)

 

Blackbookers: Tough day regarding blackbookers. I don’t think Melbourne is a great day to get involved as there may be a bias, so I’d be waiting to see how track plays there. The Brisbane and SYD blackbookers should all run well and hopefully we find a couple of winners.

August 25
FROM LONDON DOOMBEN R3 No.2 (1600m)
RAPID LEICA DANE DOOMBEN R8 No.10 (1350m)
UNANIMOUSLY MOONEE VALLEY R6 No.3 (1000m)
EXCLUDED  MOONEE VALLEY R7 No.10 (1519m)
BOMBALATOMBA  MOONEE VALLEY R8 No.13 (1200m)
WONDERFUL JESTER TOOWOOMBA CUSHION R6 No.8 (1300m)
JULIENAS  WARWICK FARM R1 No.1 (2200m)
KELINNI  WARWICK FARM R1 No.2 (2200m)

**All prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing**

 

Race 1:

PACE- CARRY TO FORTUNE should have enough pace to lead these and can run them off their legs.

 

Think CARRY TO FORTUNE is the quality 1000m horse in this race. Happy to kick the day off with her. Her last win was very good and this looks very suitable.

LIESELE is flying at present and if Browne can stalk the leader and stay in touch she is probably the only other winning hope.

 

ON TOP-1-CARRY TO FORTUNE, 2-LIESELE

Race 2:

PACE- This could get messy as it looks to be a very slow run race on paper. THE SIXTIES most likely takes it up.

 

I sound like a broken record but THE RINGMASTER is a far better horse ridden back and chasing. They again pushed forward for no result last start. Even with the slow tempo I would go back here as it is only a small field and he won’t be far of the lead. After the claim he gets in well and he is the way I’ll be going.

Throw a dart outside that as anything could happen here.

**Not a great betting race and the price will decide if I have a bet on THE RINGMASTER.

 

 

 

ON TOP- 5-THE RINGMASTER

Race 3:

PACE- Bit of pace from the awkward starting point. PLAYACTION, FROM LONDON and REVITALISE probably the first three in running.

 

The three above and CYCLONE ALL look the main players.

More than happy to be with FROM LONDON $3.80 who got the money for us midweek last start. He has been wide and working both his last starts but has dug deep and looks as though he has really improved this time in. If he can sit outside the lead without using much petrol he will be very hard to beat. I made him a best bet on the Thursday interview with Steve Hewlett and I’m confident he can get the cash early in the day.

CYCLONE AL beat TRANSPORTER last start and it has since come out and been dominant last Saturday.

PLAYACTION looks to be coming back to his best form, and his best form would win here!

REVITALISE looked ordinary last start but it was his only bad run this prep. He gets a better run in transit behind the leaders and should improve.

 

 

ON TOP- 2-FROM LONDON, 3-PLAYACTION, 1-CYCLONE AL, 10-REVITALISE

Race 4:

PACE- A bit of pace out wide here and I’d expect this to be run at a decent clip giving each horse a chance.

 

GRANZELLA comes off a great run behind Hidden Kisses and does look a major player in this. DORCHESTER was very good last start when checked at the 650m but picked itself up to win easy. It has always promised a lot and may be about to deliver.

Pretty keen to get OUR HUSSEY around the $4.80 mark here. She is beautifully placed in a no metrop win race as she was beaten ¾ L in a class 6 last start. She gets a great run behind the early pace and she will be right there at the business end.

 

 

ON TOP-6-OUR HUSSEY,3-DORCHESTER, 1-GRANZELLA

 

 

Race 5:

PACE- 4,5 and 6 should all push pretty hard and set a good tempo.

 

These are the races I bypass every year. When horses return as early three years old you often get burnt taking short odds about the ‘gun’ two year old from 6 months ago. That may not be the case here with DOUBTFILLY looking as though she has lengths on them. However you are being asked to take silly odds so I will again just be watching on and see what happens. There will be one or two horses that improve lengths and turn into nice three year olds, but we won’t know which ones they are until a month or so.

TRAKSTAR, RED ERIC and LITTLE LONG HORN are the main dangers in my mind.

**DOUBTFILLY looks to have them covered, but I won’t be steering anyone into her first up with the big weight and short price.

 

 

Working around—1,4,10,11

Race 6:

PACE- 1,4,9,13 all look to cross and sit on speed setting a decent tempo. Another race where all should get their chance.

 

Can D’JET make it 3 from 3 this prep? I think he probably can but Anthony Allen will have to shoot him out and try to sit outside the lead. If he happened to get trapped wide early it will be the end of him. After the claim he actually meets TUNAHOG the same at the weights, and meets DE DOZEN STARS 1kg better off. For that reason I think he has to go on top but Larry Cassidy knows the horse very well and it’s never great changing a jock that’s won a couple straight on him but obviously Caitlin had to claim or the weight may well have been too much to lump.

DE DOZEN STARS $17 has been very good and if he improves again here he can be in the money. TUNAHOG is impossible to catch and really mixes his form. He was beaten 6 lengths this track/trip by General Shereef a few runs back and then runs a neck 2nd to D’JET a fortnight ago?

WHATEVERWHENEVER who likes this track and JUNGLE HEAT are worth thought for trifecta’s etc.

 

 

ON TOP-   1-D’JET, 7-DE DOZEN STARS, 12-TUNAHOG, 3-WHATEVERWHENEVER

Race 7:

PACE- Not many distinct leaders, but with the big field and a few that like to sit handy drawing wide this should give every horse a chance.

 

 

Whether he has the class to win this is the question, but SEAFIGHT is a very handy North QLD horse who will relax with cover from the good gate and he can really dash at the end of his races. You can’t change his pattern of getting back, but I just hope they sit a bit closer from gate 4 and put him into the race before straightening if possible. Don’t sell him short.

SAINT SAIALA has improved each run this prep and is peaking for this. A slight gear change and with fitness now on her side she looks the top rated one here.

Any rain what so ever brings ANGUSROY into the race. He doesn’t want it heavy, but he seems to really enjoy the edge of. He has been consistent and you can’t say that for many of these.

The best roughie would be LAGONISSI who won well at the sunny coast two runs ago and then hit the line well in town last start.

 

 

ON TOP- 13-SAINT SAIALA, -SEAFIGHT, 12-LAGONISSI, 4-ANGUSROY

Race 8:

PACE- 2,3,7,9,14 all go hard here and I’ll be looking for something stalking them with some cover to come off the hot pace and roll them.

 

There are half a dozen genuine chances here and a tough way to finish the quaddie. Here are a few + and –‘s on a few horses chances (running down the page).

MAGIC SHUFFLE – Ultra consistent and run behind Startsmeup would put him right in this. Gate 13 the query?

SEZWHO- Incredible cushion form where he looks like Phar Lap… You’d usually go broke backing horses with cushion form in class ones and two coming to town. Can he stand up?

STARLIN- A real chance and a horse that improves with each run in its prep. Like his chances here and Rosie Myers should be able to park 3rd the fence.

ALVITAS- $3.80 Has always promised a lot and has run some very good races. Placed beautifully, takes a 3kg claim and has good gate. The one to beat.

RAPID LEICA DANE- Horrible record this track, but should also get a decent run and got close to Startsmeup last start. Nice weight and enjoys the dry track.

STRAIGHT- Building decent record but hasn’t got a lot of early pace and gate 1 may not be the best spot for it.

ALDINI- $7. This is the horse I have come up with (even though he’s hard to catch!) He has been racing in good races and performing well. A few things go his way today. Blinkers back on. Gate 5 gives him a great run behind a good speed and Jeff Lloyd takes the ride! This is his race if he’s gonna win one on a Saturday.

 

 

ON TOP- 12- ALDINI, 8-ALVITAS, 10-RAPID LEICA DANE, 7-STARLIN

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 3 No.2 FROM LONDON

Brisbane Race 4 No.6 OUR HUSSEY

Sydney Race 3 No.4 MOMEMNT OF CHANGE

 

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:
(obvious way to thin the brissy quaddie is to stand Doubtfilly out in the first leg)

1,4,11 —-1,3,7,12 —- 4,9,11,12,13 —- 5,7,8,10,12

 

SYDNEY QUADDIE numbers:

8 —– 2,4,5,11,12,13 —– 10 —– 1,2

 

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s: (This week is a three horse allup in SYDNEY)

SYDNEY-

Race 3 No.4 MOMENT OF CHANGE + Race 5 No.8 SUMARAND + Race 8 No.1 STEPS IN TIME

 

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS**

DOOMBEN

1/1 Carry To Fortune $3.6 to $3.4

3/8 Equissential $11.0 to $9.0

4/6 Our Hussey $5.0 to $4.8

5/5 Athanea $15.0 to $13.0

5/11 Trakstar $21.0 to $17.0

 

WARWICK FARM

1/1 Julienas $3.25 to $3.1

3/4 Moment Of Change $2.25 to $2.00

4/10 Keith’s Legacy $11.0 to $9.0

6/4 Lamasery $21.0 to $14.0

6/6 Startsmeup $21.0 to $17.0

6/12 Lights Of Heaven $8.5 to $7.5

8/4 Irish Dream $10.0 to $9.0

 

MOONEE VALLEY

1/6 Commanding Jewel $2.25 to $2.00

2/2 Draw Forward $4.0 to $3.6

2/10 Chivvy $8.0 to $5.5

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 25 August 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

WARWICK FARM (SR)

6

$300,000

WARWICK STAKES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

6

$2,000

SPRING CUP

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

C2 TO C4

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

HOBART (TG)

5

$10,000

NATIONAL DISTANCE C’SHIP FINAL

F4

HOBART (TG)

8

$10,000

NATIONAL SPRINT C’SHIP FINAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**Have a cracking weekend and I hope you find a winner!

Gibbo

>>>>>>>>>>>>>I will place a link here later that you can click on that will take you to the Helter Skelter website

and you can here myself and form expert Peter Ellis talk about the weekend selections. So check back in later!

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/#!news/c19om