‘The Punt’ 25th FEB

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Hi all! Thanks for checking out ‘The Punt’ section again. I hope you had some luck last week with ‘The Prophet’ and I agreeing on Under The Hat, which incredibly got out to $5.. It was also a huge weekend for the Blackbookers, so good on you if you had a win.

This week is a different story and looks a very hard day in Brisbane. Showers have fallen with more rain tonight and that will play a part. I’m sure it will be a wet track and as we know Eagle Farm is pretty ordinary as a surface compared to Doomben, so fingers crossed. The meeting may not even go ahead. It makes it difficult for me as there will be a heap of scratchings and it could be a big waste of time, so I will flick over some races quicker.

*Be sure to check back in Saturday morning after 8.30am QLD.

**I have done a BLUE DIAMOND preview on Thursday so check it out after you read this if you want my take on the Group 1 feature.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

PRONTO PRONTO CAULFIELD R7 No.19 –May not get a run
HI BELLE CAULFIELD R9 No.2 – Decent ew chance in an open race
EMPRESS ME EAGLE FARM R4 No.4 – Heavy track the main question
DOUBLE RANGA EAGLE FARM R7 No.14 – Heavy track the query again, but really like this horse.
SAID COM  ROSEHILL R2 No.2 –Probably the best of the blackbookers this week, but will be short.

ALL PRICES ARE TATTSBET PRICES AT TIME OF TYPING..

 

With the wet track you will see I have gone for a lot of value, but to be honest I really don’t think it’s a great betting day in Brissy.

Race 1: It’s not real often I get involved in the 2yr old races, but I do think we can kick the day off with what looks like a near good thing (if there is such a thing).  There are a couple of different  formlines coming into this, and the Doubtfilly form is going to be lengths stronger than the other race that CHRISTINE, HOLEY GADOLEY etc run in. I felt that race was one of the lowest rating 2 year old races I had seen and thought the form would not hold up. I ran it past a friend and great judge Chris Nelson from www.queenslandtrials.com.au  and he agreed to a certain extent (think he may have another as his top pick though) but him agreeing about the other form made me more confident here. I really like WONDERFUL JESTER from the Patinack team. It was very good on debut in a strong race and can sit in the first five on settling here and should be able to run over them for Bell late. The 1300m is ok in my mind as his breeding suggests he may get a mile+. Has a good barrier and I’m sure he will be the best horse to come out of this race. Even though he got some cheap sectionals on pace last time, I thought he worked hard early and was really strong late. NIELLO’S GIFT looks to be on the improve and will be the other winning chance in a shallow race. He will be flying late. They are the only one’s I’m keen to steer people into.

On Top: 2-WONDERFUL  JESTER

Hardest To Beat: 1-NIELLO’S GIFT

 

Race 2: These races do not interest me in the least and not comfortable tipping for the sake of it.

*Sorry, but PASS.

 

Race 3: Thought this was tailor made for DIAGO until you see gate 18 at this starting point which can be a killer. I still have him on top, but have really cooled off now and probably won’t bet on this race. He has to go back here. Track and conditions suit but will need some pace on to come into contention. The formline through Lucky Luna + Emoticon looks exceptional for a race like this. NARCELO can be forgiven for last run and is some hope on earlier form. Big weight is the question. Gollan has BANG ON going great and is has to be a player in a race like this. Dropping back in trip a little issue, but has had a 3 week freshen up which will work well. OKANE and ONETIMEATBANDCAMP will be on pace and probably look the winners at some stage. How strong they are late will be the interesting. LOHAN and NOBLE JESTER will have supporters but I’m not sold until I see them put more runs on the board as I have a question on the form lines.

*Not keen after the barrier draw.

On Top: 5-DIAGO  – but I would be avoiding the race.

Next best: 6-NO SHACKLES

 

Race 4: Rain throws this wide open. Nothing would surprise! If DOUBLE IMPACT (SCRATCHED)runs he ticks a few boxes. Handles the wet, is in form and has a class edge. On the other side is the bid weight (unless they claim) on the heavy track makes it tough. EMPRESS ME is a super little horse on the way up but is unknown on the surface. If she handles it she will take a stack of holding out. One here that I think is way over the odds is THAT’S KARMA for the Heathcote stables. Bred to get further, has handled wet track before and is rock hard fit which will help over a tough 1500m. At $26 + $7.25 on TattsBet he looks ‘overs’ and at worst is worth thought for trifecta’s etc. The other runner from the stable is DEFENCEMAN and he may well have found his groove last start. 3kg claim and out in trip will suit. I like him too. VIKING HEART, CARESSABLE ONE and ARCTIC the best of the rest.

*Respecting  EMPRESS ME, but happy to back both Heathcote horses the win at $26 and the other at around $7.

On Top Value: 3-DEFENCEMAN + 11-THAT’S KARMA

 

 

Race 5:  Was taken with FALVELINA last start but didn’t want her striking the wet track! She can still run well. JUST BEEN LUCKY goes great in the mud, but I’m always a bit hesitant 1st up on heavy when a couple of others are into their preps and rock hard fit. CYCLONE BRAD is big odds but can push forward and be some hope. TAFEER is a speed machine that handles the wet. That makes her hard to beat, but again 1st up. TEN SECONDS has promised a  lot and may be in for his best prep. By a wet track sire and has Colless on top. NOROCOS always takes a few runs to hit form and I really liked her run last time out. Being by Show A Heart , out of a Danewin mare I’d expect her to get through the track. FELONY FLIGHT can also have a case made for her.

*Really tough here! (Wide in Quaddie)

On Top; 4-FALVELINA

Hardest To beat: 14-NOROCOS, 9-CYCLONE BRAD, 8-JUST BEEN LUCKY, 11-TEN SECONDS

 

Race 6: It is always a query, but being EF and this late in the day, I’m sure they will be coming wide on the track so barriers not so important. Yet another even race. Just think OUR HUSSEY is screaming to win one of these and has been in great form. Rock hard fit and handles the heavy. GEBLITZ gets through the going and good on her day, but gee she is running out of chances with punters. OAK STREET looks a really promising one on the rise and should run well. Wide all the way 1st up and can be forgiven. BY CHOICE seems to be over the odds around $17. I think this is a nice horse improving all the time and the barrier may not be a big issue this time of the day. DE BOIS and KARANJa have some claims. If it was a dry track I had AL FAHER on top, but not sure they will run, even if they get a start.

*Hail mary!

On Top: 13-OUR HUSSEY

Next Best: 11-GEBLITZ, 7-OAK STREET, 8-BY CHOICE

 

Race 7: Big fan of ESSINGTON but I want to see him back to his best, and I’m not sure he is at his best on heavy going. He does love EF and is hard to write off. MR ARMSTRONG was enormous 1st up and goes good 2nd up too. Does handle the conditions so he must go in. The horse I have a massive wrap on and is a blackbooker is DOUBLE RANGA. I would have much preferred a dry track, and the weights are not nice to her, but I’d respect her. SHE’S A ROCK STAR loves the wet conditions and is a winner 1st up. She ran 4th behind Red Tracer on a heavy track 3 starts back which shows her credentials. CARIAD looks to be hitting form for Gollan, has Byrne stay on and is a slow track winner. THE SIXTIES ticks a lot of boxes here. He has won or placed in 6 of 10 at EF. Won or placed 5 of 7 on slow/heavy. He is as fit as they can get him and can sit on pace and prove hard to run down. BIANCA JEWEL was pretty good first up but may need one more to get to her top.

On Top: 6-THE SIXTIES

Next Best: 2-MR ARMSTRONG, 14-DOUBLE RANGA, 1-ESSINGTON

 

Race 8: This is the race I will go shorter in the quad and I will be happy to back two horses the win. WIN A MILLION was one of my early market selections on RadioTab Thursday and she looks to have a few things in her favour. She has an extra run under her belt compared to a lot of the other chances. She gets through the going and gets a lovely run in transit for Cassidy. Blinkers go on 1st time and I have a feeling they may switch her right on. $7 on Tatts looks inviting. SANTO DE LAGO is 3 from 3 on heavy and is a last start winner. Colless stays on and at $5 is the main danger. Outside of them Birchley’s pair SNIP’N’DUCK who probably should have won last week, and SLICE AND DICE who hasn’t had much luck look like they are others worth the most thought. Neither have had jockey’s assigned as yet which may mean they don’t run? Not sure. MR SLICK and MAGIC TARTAN for trifecta’s etc.

*One of the better races for the day. Like 10 e/w, or back 9 + 10 the win.

On top: 10-WIN A MILLION

Hardest To Beat: 9-SANTO DE LAGO

Others: 13-SNIP’N’DUCK, 16-SLICE AND DICE

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 1 no 2 WONDERFUL  JESTER

Brisbane Race 8 no 10 WIN A MILLION e/w

Melbourne Race 2 no 1 HOT SPIN

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: (obviously gone wide on mud track, will change after scratchings)

4,8,9,10,11,13,14 — 6,7,8,11,13 — 2,6,10,14 – 9,10

 

MELBOURNE Quaddie Selections: (many may want to stand Samaready out in Blue Diamond to get a bigger %)

1,4,6,7,– 2,4,10,14 – 9,12,13 – 1,2,5,6

 

SYDNEY Quaddie selections

1,2,3,8 —  5  — 3,4,5,6 — 3,4,5,14

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

He has come up with 3 + a real roughie.

Melbourne Race 4 no 1 ANABANDANA

Melbourne Race 9 no 3 LET’S BE HAPPY

Sydney Race 5 no 1 SECRET ADMIRER

Roughie—Brisbane Race 3 no 13 KUMALI

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 25 February 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

CAULFIELD (MR)

6

$150,000

OAKLEIGH PLATE

EX

CAULFIELD (MR)

7

$12,629

BLUE DIAMOND STAKES

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

AUTUMN C’SHIP (1ST HEAT)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$20,000

CLAIMING PACE

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

C1 ONLY

 

 

**I just want to go over something I mentioned earlier. For those who really get into their punting, you may even pay for other tipping services. If that’s the case and you are not exactly over the moon with them, check out Chris Nelson’s Queensland Trials Review. For the amount of time, work and more importantly WINNERS you get out of it, the service is very reasonable, especially when compared to a hell of a lot of the other ‘professionals?’ that charge more than him.

You may know Chris as the tipster for Brisbane in the BestBets magazine. Your situation may be different to mine, but if I run out of time I usually skip over or miss some trials, simply because it takes so bloody long! But I can tell you there isn’t a bloke who tips more 1st up winners in Australia. I think he had a run leading into last week of 11 winners from his last 13 tips. Anyway he’s a good bloke and an even better judge. It may not be for everyone, but I know it is something a lot of you may like to look at if you want to save some time.

Check the site out for costs and how it all works, so you can see what you think of it and if it will work for you.  www.queenslandtrials.com.au

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

Remember to read the BLUE DIAMOND article if you want my opinion. (may be worth a read if this rain continues as Brissy may be in some trouble).

Have a cracker.

Gibbo