‘The Punt’ 30th November

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JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 30 November 2013

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

DOOMBEN (BR)

7

$154,060

RECOGNITION STAKES

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$12,263

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,000

RISING STARS C’SHIP FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

8

$10,000

MIRACLE MILE

F4

MELTON (MT)

6

$2,000

DERBY ROYALE TROTTERS FFA

F4

MELTON (MT)

7

$2,000

POPULAR ALM FFA

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$40,000

M0 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$20,000

C0 TO C1

 TATTS JACKPOTS!  (above)

- THIS IS UPDATED now (8.30am)

*Welcome to ‘The Punt’ for another week!

Hopefully those who followed the midweek selections had a place all-up, every horse in the placing’s with just TEVEISO saluting.

Here is how I see the races this week. A very tough and even day!blackbook

BLACKBOOKERS:

SATURDAY, 30 NOVEMBER 2013

Blanket Bay – Caulfield R7 No.14 (2000m): Tough event but suitable.

Gold Cape – Doomben R2 No.6 (2200m): Not a great betting race, chance if dry.

Rudy – Doomben R6 No.5 (1110m): 1200m would be better but can win here.

Skating Away – Doomben R7 No.17 (1600m): Each way chance.

WHAT ARE WE MEANT  TO DO WITH THIS a day before the races??? Makes it hard. This is from bom.gov.au

Saturday 30 November

Summary

http://www.bom.gov.au/images/symbols/large/storm.png

Min 19

Max 24

Early storms. Showers.

Brisbane area

Cloudy. Scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Winds south to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening.

Race 1:

As people know I am not keen on these 2 yr olds having first starts.

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Race 2:

Again not keen. No reason to jump off POSTE RESTANTE other than probably jumps a stupid quote and has been costly over time.

Work around: 1,2,3,6

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Race 3:

Plenty of speed here and I am looking for value. Good bunch of owners in THE BLACK SUPERMAN and Brad Herne has done a good job with him, off the top of my head I think he may have been gelded this time in but may be corrected. The horse has always promised a bit but is just starting to hit his straps. Pace on, 1200m suits and although it’s an even race I might just have something small at the each-way on him.

ISIS DEVIL is flying at present and drops 2-3kg on his last two wins. Won 7 from 12 and guaranteed to show some fight, just needs a pinch of luck from the gate with a bit of pace drawn inside him which is my only concern.

1200m is sort of unknown with SPORTING PAGE, happy to think he can take the box seat if he wants which gives him a chance to run it out. AFTER BARON may represent value.

CABALLO RAPIDO is potentially the best horse in the race and although he will want further in time he can sprint well fresh!

On Top:  12- THE BLACK SUPERMAN   $9  (slight query with rain around)

More Value:  7- CABALLO RAPIDO

 

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Race 4:

Couple of main form lines here that you can stack a few up by. EMERALD DUKE did it tough but was still too good for them last start. Gate 12 from this starting point and out to 1600m is not ideal. He is still the horse to beat but he will probably start under the odds.

I am a MR TESTA fan and he was good 1st-up but does he sprint as well 2nd up? DANYME had every conceivable chance last start and although only beaten a lip, this is not exactly easier. UPDATE- Rain brings him right into this.

ALTAI WARRIOR is extremely hard to catch! If it was dry I could ascertain having something small on but he is a duffer if a storm hits. WALHAAN has support last start and is far from the worst.

Not a race I am keen to get too involved but have put PLUMAGE on top. She gets a good gate which is important here, can easily sit 6th-7th and Byrne just needs a pinch of luck working into the race before the corner for her to trouble them.

On Top:  13- PLUMAGE  $8

 *Next best-  9- MR TESTA,  7- EMERALD DUKE

*Matt Dunn Racing

Race 5:

Gee this is a good way to kick the quaddie off!

No doubt DISCREET will be supported here. She is one of the most honest horses around, a money spinner for connections and punters alike. She can blow them away without surprising. My concern is exactly how far back does she get?? If they run along it may not matter but I cant get it out of my head.

Although she has been hit and miss LIESELE looks to be perfectly placed. Won or placed in 23 of 38, gets in with 56.5kg and Colless should get into the perfect spot.

WORDS ARE WEAPONS clearly has some class but this isn’t easy and 1200m still a little question.

I think JACQUETTA and LADY ECHELON fresh are the ones worth thought for wide first 4’s at a price.

On Top:  2- LIESELE

Hardest To Beat:  3- DISCREET

 (IF THE RAINS COME ID CHANGE SELECTIONS AROUND)

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Race 6:

Seriously throw a dart. Every horse can have a case made but I obviously try to keep it as short as possible for you.

I see this race as two options, back RUDY or go extremely wide!

RUDY was terrific 1st up but went super. I was hoping they would get to 1200m 2nd up and he’d be a ‘good thing’. The 1110m may be ok from a decent gate and with what should be a good tempo up front. You may have to wait till late but he will be coming hard.

INTO THE RED should plenty in its first couple of runs and headed to Sydney for a couple of group races. High clas animal but gate 16 from this start is far from ideal. Will rely on class to carry it a fair way.

MISSING PAGE beat most of these last start, jumps 2kg which is not ideal but has gate 1 to help the cause.

ELIMINATOR creates interest after being gelded but again gate 14 is a big query?

CHOOSE A SAGA comes in fresh and even with 58kg he should be respected. From gate 3 he sits 5th-6th spending no petrol and seems to get every chance.

NEUSCHWANSTEIN very solid fresh, can run well again but sure we see the best of him at 1400m+.

*Each-way price RUDY or no bet for me.

On Top:  5- RUDYMaluaRacing...

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Race 7:

A lot depends on the weather, if it rains LISTEN SON may not run and the pace drops away a touch.

FILLYDELPHIA is the class but she does go up 3kg on her win the other week. She has come up with gate 1 again so Cahill gets an easy job and she will be hard to hold out. I don’t like mares giving weight to the boys but she is pretty good on her day.

BLACK CASH was only beaten a head by Less Is More over 1600m during our carnival and drops 4kg on recent runs in Melbourne.

DOLLY DOLLY made the trip south and ran well in Group races. This is a drop in grade and she will be strong late. Hasn’t won at Doomben but placed 5 of 7 so not an issue.

SKATING AWAY peaks for this and my only question is the form it comes out of stepping up to this grade. It is not bad but Cracco has gone terrible since and they went over the line together. Maybe take it she has improved from that.

ABSOLON has promised a lot but only starting to shows signs of what he has. Has to be a chance in this field.

ELMANTOSH has come up with the horror draw and no real option other than going back to last. Shame as I was keen to have something on. Still worth quaddie thoughts.

On Top:  2 – FILLYDELPHIA

Hardest To Beat:  3 – BLACK CASH

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Race 8:

Hard race, FLYING JET looked to have returned very good and I thought was really ordinary in Sydney. Hard to have on that run but Schweida may be able to turn her around?

Never ideal when a horse has had 4 runs at a track for no return but VENTURE ON is in that boat, it is misleading as his runs have been ok and It is not as bad as it looks. He will again be competitive here.

TOP RADA on the quick back-up and is a mudder, respect

Does CONGO and HAMPDEN (I believe is out as I type) run from 16 + 17 gates? They are the pace and would have to work if both run, if they both come out who leads?? These are important facts…. Make sure you check in Saturday morning for update.

CYCLONE BILLY has come to town and won before. CHALUPA seems to be on the up and if the speed is on he is more than capable to repeat the dose from last start.

I was keen on PRETTY GULLY last start and I thought she had her chance to run them down. Hard to say no off just that run.

POWERFUL JET and GUNNER KNOX are honest horses with good gates and this is about their level. Adding HOLY TOLEDO who can improve sharply.

**Very, very tough race. Waiting for closer to see scratchings)

Slight leaning to GUNNER KNOX but he would rather it dry.

On Top:    1- VENTURE ON $5.50

Next best:  16- CHALUPA, 

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GIBBOS BEST BETS:Piney meals

UPDATED now 9.20am

Sydney Race 6No.9 - STRIKE THE STARS  e/w

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This ‘weeks’ Longshot-  Brisbane Race 7 No.13- EMANTOSH

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BRISBANE Quadrella:

1,2,3,9,10 —– 3,5,6,7,8 —– 2,3,5,13 —– 1,12,13,16

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‘THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets:

*Brisbane Race 6 No.11 - ELIMANATOR

*Sydney Race 4 No.1 – MALUCKYDAY

*Melbourne Race 7 No.4 – UNCHAIN MY HEART

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TATTSBET SPECIALS this weekend and DOUBLE TRIO NUMBERS:

Tatts never sleeps*

DOUBLE TRIO- 

2,3,5,13,14  +      1,7,11,12,13,16

RL twist