‘The Punt’ 31st March

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Let me just start by saying a big ‘Thankyou’ to all the followers who get on the sight! Whether it’s midweek, weekends or both, thanks for clicking on brissyraces as it is appreciated and I hope I help in some way.

For the new followers wondering what ‘The Punt’ is? It’s simply my assessment of the races for that weekend. There is no charge and you can throw my thought in the bin if you like as it’s simply my opinion. But feel free to print them off or send a link to a friend so they can check it out too. The more the merrier and it helps to grow the site. I do advise to check back in after 8.30am Saturday as scratchings etc can mix things around.

ENJOY.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week: I do like the stable today and think we will get some winners!

SUNDAY
GAIL SALE R6 No.1 (1619m)
SATURDAY
THE REVELLER EAGLE FARM R4 No.10 – Gets a lot of things in his favour- Like him a lot!
BINGO ROSE EAGLE FARM R5 No.13 – With luck from gate will be right in this.
HIDDEN JEWEL EAGLE FARM R6 No.6 –Terrific filly, should win.
ALL TOO HARD ROSEHILL R2 No.1 – Odds on, watch on. Bloody good though.
FOXSTAR ROSEHILL R5 No.10 – Great ew chance on backup from G1.
CRAFTY IRNA ROSEHILL R5 No.5 Best ew for the day in SYD.
NIAGARA ROSEHILL R6 No.13 – Interesting to see how he goes 2nd up.
AMBIDEXTER ROSEHILL R7 No.12 Tough race but going very well.
OCEAN PARK  ROSEHILL R7 No.16 Very unlucky last time and nothing would surprise.
PERMIT  ROSEHILL R8 No.7 – Well placed.
GYBE ROSEHILL R9 No.6 – Another good chance late in the day.

 

All Prices are TattsBet prices at time of typing.

Race 1: Really messy way to start the day. ROCKDALE and KUMALI lead from probably SILENT MOVIE and INTERVIEW. As much as I’d be leaning INTERVIEWS way I simply don’t like the race because it can become very tactical when the pace may be muddling. Happy to stay out of this.

-PASS

 

Race 2: WOLFSBURG resumes and ran well behind Snipzu in the early 2 yr old races. That lines up well here and is a trial winner starting from a good gate. Think he’s worth a look EW. They have to run down HOLEY GADOLEY and that’s not easy when he is in this form. They are my clear on top horses and there is about 3 or 4 just below and include KHAANTANTES, REGRETS, DANSAL and PERFECT GLORY.

On Top: 12-WOLFSBURG ew

Next Best: 1- HOLEY GADOLEY

Others: 9-PERFECT GLORY, 3-KHAANTANTES, 7-DANSAL

 

 

Race 3: Just an even tempo again here with ONETIMEATBANDCAMP and MANICERO rolling to the front. That makes it interesting as a couple of the backmarkers are the best chances. If they can steal a break on MANICERO ON STRAIGHTENING THE SON OF Fastnet Rock can make it interesting. DODGING EDDIE is a backmarker but can sit closer from 2 and I believe that’s the key. If he is closer enough he can outsprint them. I do like him but the $4 on offer seems a bit skinny to me.. DIAGO would have gone on top, however he will have to produce a beauty after drawing gate 12. He will run honest as always, so look for him late. MARKED is a good horse who could surprise but it would be a great training performance dropping from a 2100m race on a heavy surface to win an 1835m race in a fortnight.

On Top: 9-DODGING EDDIE

Hardest To Beat: 10-MANICERO, 4-DIAGO

 

Race 4: Good pace on here from 1,2,4,5,11. In my map that sets it up for THE REVELLER to show everyone what he’s got. We got a glimpse of it last start when he was ridden correctly and went past some good horses like they were avg when rattling off a great last sectional. The EF track helps and he should be able to settle just worse than midfield for Keane who claims 3kg and The Reveller gets in with 51.5kg. That adds up to me getting on and I like him as one of my best bets. PARIS BLU and GOD’S WINDOW have the ability to kick off a good pace and will be hard to catch. Very easy to make a case for Symposium first up and is a class horse on his day. Also BIANCA JEWEL is by far the best roughie and only needs some luck from the gate to figure.

On Top: 10-THE REVELLER

Hardest To Beat: 4-GODS WINDOW, 5-PARIS BLUE, 7-BIANCAS JEWEL

 

 

 

Race 5: An open race to open the quaddie. The on top pick will surprise, but only interested in small bet here. If BINGO ROSE had a gate she wold be a clear top rater, however she has 14 and will need an A+ from Hellyer. I’m sure they will go back to give her every chance to run it out. She was super last start, but Snip’n’duck was beaten midweek which isn’t the best for the formline. WIN A MILLION was too bad to be true last start!! If she has an ‘on ‘ day she can win but it’s hard when she keeps mixing her form. KAUNDA was good first up, has a good gate, Munce on and this is a suitable race. The question is the 58.5kg he has to lump. START AGAIN has been flying on the wet tracks and would love some rain. CHART was slow out 1st up, has good 2nd up stats and is the forgotten horse at $21 on TattsBet! He is a better chance than that! LUCKY SONGS is a horse who can produce a great run but has to overcome gate 16. He does have the inform Anthony Allen on top and gets in with 53kg. BEGGIN and ROCK HOME LATE can both run well at decent odds. ROCK HOME LATE will be up on pace and will try to see out the last 100m which is his only query.  TEA TATTLE at $26 is also some hope.  I think it’s an open race and he will improve a lot getting a firmer surface. His run last start was solid and he had to circle the field on an unsuitable wet track. He will come hard late.

**Won’t be getting too involved. Rather just play quaddie.

On Top: 13- BINGO ROSE

Hardest To Beat: 2-KAUNDA, 6-CHART, 10-ROCK HOME LATE

 

Race 6: We see HIDDEN JEWEL resume here and I’m excited to see her. She is little but packs a V8 in there. Yes this is probably short of her best trip, yes others get a chance to beat her at the weights but I simply can’t go past her. MORNING CAPTAIN is 1st up and can be right in this! Even the big weight isn’t a real issue as he is pretty good. Same story for TRUMP who is very good and only needs to get some luck from the gate to figure at good odds. ABSOLON gets blinkers so inclined to think it’s worth including, if the blinkers don’t work he may need the biggest gear change (gelding). ROCK ACADEMY is the spruik horse and has a chance at the weights. It is hard to jump from maiden to this class and win, very few do it but Rob obviously thinks it’s pretty good! JUDY’S JOY and MORE BUBBLY add interest but they are up against some good ones here.

On Top:6- HIDDEN JEWEL

Next Best: 10-ROCK ACADEMY, 1-MORNING CAPTAIN, 2-TRUMP

 

Race 7: Speed to burn with 3,5,8, and 10 burning! Don’t want to go too in depth here. GIRLS GO RACING settles off them and brings SYD form which usually prevails. Add to that the pace suits and a great weight,  it points to victory. AMBERS CROWN always runs well and drops 5kg on her last win. LEAPFROG is the quaddie killer. You can’t get a guide on what he will do until 2 hrs before the race because a plunge usually comes and he smacks them. That doesn’t help, but feel he has to go in for that reason. GDAY OLD MATE and MY COOKIE MONSTER next best.

On Top: 4- GIRLS GO RACING

 

 

Race 8: The second 1000m race in a row to finish? I seem to keep giving ALL THAT more chances, but this is probably the easiest race he’s had for a while. I don’t have him on top, but he can be hard to run down. SNIPPETS SECRET gets all the favours from gate 1 and is a true 1000m horse. Should sit 3rd on the leaders back in this. SIGNIFIED has an ordinary gate which is a concern but is unbeaten fresh. EMBRAER, HEADHUNTER and MIST IN THE MORN wouldn’t surprise either but I’ve landed on VAARWEL. He has always had a bit of a wrap but hasn’t lived up to it. Toby Edmonds may have found the key to him, or at least that’s what I’m thinking. He gets a decent surface again, Colless on top and drops 3.5kg on his GC win where he won by 4 ½ L.

On Top: 12- VAARWEL

Next Best; 5-SNIPPETS SECRET, 7-SIGNIFIED, 2-ALL THAT.

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

 

 

Sydney Race 5 no 5 CRAFTY IRNA (dead or better track)

Brisbane Race 4 no 10 THE REVELLER ew

Brisbane Race 6 no 6 HIDDEN JEWEL

Brisbane Race 7 no 4 GIRLS GO RACING

 

REMEMBER final selections will be up 8.30am QLD Saturday

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

(I will have a shorter one standing out the fav’s in the 2nd and 3rd legs which is an option for those going skinny)

1,2,3,5,6,8,10,11,13,16 —- 6,10 —- 4,8 —- 2,5,7,12


SYDNEY Quadrella selections:

(This is extremely wide and you run the risk of a few fav’s winning and not making cash on your bet, but I’m happy to roll with it for a small % and hoping some value falls into it) Go with what your gut tells you.

7,8,11,13 — 1,3,6,7,12,13,16,17,18, — 1,2,7,10 —- 1,6,9,10

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 6 no 4 GEOLOGICAL

Sydney Race 7 no 16 OCEAN PARK

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

                                                          for

Saturday, 31 March 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ROSEHILL (SR)

7

$250,000

ROSEHILL GUINEAS

A2

ROSEHILL (SR)

9

$5,122

BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES

TT

ROSEHILL (SR)

-

$15,968

RACES 7, 8 & 9

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$20,000

M2 TO M3

F4

BATHURST (ST)

5

$2,000

GOLD TIARA FINAL

F4

BATHURST (ST)

7

$2,000

GOLD CROWN FINAL

EX

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,862

M1 ONLY

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$41,723

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

 

 

 

 

For those interested in my ROSEHILL GUINEAS numbers, my top 5 are :

Ethiopia was scratched and I have gone over the race a few more times. I actually think the best bet at value in the race is ROCK’N’POP ew in the race around the $16 mark.

16- OCEAN PARK

3-ROCK’N’POP

13- LASER HAWK

18- SILENT ACHIEVER


6- STRIKE THE STARS

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo