‘The Punt’ 3rd March

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Another ‘The Punt’ section rolls along and we search for more winners. We move to Eagle Farm and looks as though the track will dry out enough to hopefully race very true. It looks to be a very open card with a lot of chances in the double figure odds.

The quaddie could pay anything today, so I will put my selections at the bottom of the page as usual. If you want a guide on a couple of my best bets, simply go to the brissyraces home page and read ‘Gibbo’s early market selections’ to find out more about each.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week: I am extremely keen to follow this week as I’m sure there are multiple winners amongst them.

BEGGIN EAGLE FARM R3 No.13 *
ANOTHER SUPERIOR  EAGLE FARM R4 No.6
SHAMARDASHING EAGLE FARM R8 No.9
PURETTAN EAGLE FARM R9 No.5
UNDER THE HAT FLEMINGTON R4 No.7 *
BOMBALATOMBA  FLEMINGTON R6 No.15

MOSHEEN FLEMINGTON R6 No.16 *

PRAECIDO  ROSEHILL R4 No.8
MANAWANUI ROSEHILL R6 No.1 *

 

All Prices are TattsBet prices at time of typing.

 

Race 1: Bit of a tough race to kick the day off. I think there are better races later and won’t be betting here. If you are having a bet, I’m sure it will be beneficial to watch where the money trail leads early Saturday morning as it always is in the Two year old races.

I hate to do it to people, but really not keen to steer anyone in a direction here as there are about seven different form lines colliding!

PASS.

 

Race 2: The dreaded Brisbane staying race! I have simply got it down to the two or three proven horses. MARKED hit top form last start and can continue improving into this. He may have to go back from the gate, but I have this run at a decent tempo with three of four runners heading here from the provincials all looking to lead. That will give MARKED his chance. OUR RECIDIVIST (SCRATCHED)is now primed! He has had a couple of runs to get fit and the last race when he led would be the perfect blowout for a race like this. He gets the good gate and I’m certain Munce will box seat, or at the worst be 4th-5th throughout the run. Can he make up the 3 lengths that MARKED beat him by last start? Not sure, but is a big chance. BREAK THE ICE is another who is now cherry ripe and should be respected. The X Factor and a little unknown is ATTICA who is well bred to get the trip, is lightly raced and could pop up. Maybe a box 4 trifecta is not out of the question..

On Top: 3- MARKED

Hardest To Beat:, 7-BREAK THE ICE, 6-ATTICA

 

Race 3: Well this looks a good race and I’m pretty keen on BEGGIN which opened at $21 (hopefully those who jumped on Thursday read the early market article and got that price)  We have followed her every start this prep. She won in a class record 1st up at $10, and has had no luck what so ever in her next two. She was closer to Nudgee road than she was the inside rail last time and still finished off. If McMahon can get her to jump and just get her to relax she should be able to sprint better than most and looks well over the odds at $20+. I have talked to Bryan Dais her trainer and he thinks she has come on and going really well. EMOTICON looks the main danger as he has raced against better horses than these of late. Probably should have won last start. He does go up 3.5kg into this, but if he gets a good run from Byrne he can win and is a deserved fav. NSW visitor OKANE is an interesting runner. This is again an easier race than he has contested. I was in Grafton last year when he beat Emvoss (which he was lucky too). He is no superstar, but it’s a race without a lot of depth so he can win. KISS ME DEADLY has been progressing nice and is ready to show her best here. Respect her as I expect her to be running on late. KUMALI gets to his fav track, fav trip and onto a good surface, so the $13 looks like it could add value to tri’s etc. DODGING EDDIE will fly late and EF will suit to a tea, and MODERN AL probably the best of the rest.

*Will take the big odds Beggin in a really open race.

On Top Value: 13-BEGGIN e/w

Next Best: 1-EMOTICON, 11-KISS ME DEADLY, 15-DODGING EDDIE.

 

Race 4: This is some type of race! In saying that, I won’t be betting but will be watching on for the future as I’m sure a stack of winners will come out of this. KILLWINNING OPTION has been very good all his runs down here. He will push forward and can run a cheeky race. ABSALON has real class but has been set a task with 58.5kg and gate 14. Write him off at your own peril though as 1st up last prep he was beaten 3.6 L by Sepoy at Flemington! BOYS ON TOUR far from the worst and should be respected in this grade.ANOTHER SUPERIOR would have benefited from the run 1st up and gets Colless (3) which is a huge help. TAMBAN (SCRATCHED)the real question here. Looks very good and at the weights I am very keen to watch it step up from a maiden to this grade. It doesn’t happen often, but if he wins we may have a bloody good one on our hands. JUDY’S JOY is screaming to win a race but things just haven’t fallen into place yet. Good gate and Munce abourd + ‘The Prophet’ is pretty keen e/w. MISS STASH the other horse for multiples at the good price on the minimum weight and gets a better run in transit today.

*Good luck if you have a go, but I’m not leaning a certain way.

 

Race 5: Sometimes you just have to forgive horses and I’m prepared to forgive ESSINGTON. Toby takes all the ‘gear’ off him and I love the fact Colless is on board. I think he will suit the horse and even with the bad gate, if he he is switched on he should go very close. MR ARMSTRONG destroyed them last start and goes well 2nd up also, so would be silly to not respect him. THE SIXTIES gets a great run and will have every chance. He is a real threat. CARIAD showed glimpses of her best last start and that was  6 weeks between runs. She is hard to catch, but if she reproduces that she can trouble them. BIANCA JEWEL was very good 1st up and could be the smoky. She gets gate 4 and drops 2.5kg on her last start. SHE’S A ROCK STAR some hope with solid Sydney form and a decent 1st up record. She will push forward and try to trail the speed which will be a big plus.

*Slightly worried about Essington’s gate, but thinking class and Colless may prove the difference.

On Top: 1-ESSINGTON

Hardest To Beat: 2-MR ARMSTRONG, 8-BIANCA JEWEL, 9-SHE’S A ROCK STAR

 

Race 6: Plenty of pace over the 1000m and one of the horses on pace will be CARRY TO FORTUNE (NOW SCRATCHED). I was surprised when Tatts went up just under the $5 mark as she looks the one to beat. She’s a real 1000m horse who jumps and runs them into the ground on cornering. Not many can kick off that pace, that is what makes her so good. I think that is a great price and around the e/w mark she will give you a terrific sight. BOLD GLANCE is the ‘class’ in the race and will charge late. I think he is the main danger fresh (has won 3 of 5 first up) and won or placed in 7 of 11 at EF. I give a blowout chance to CRAIGLEE FALCON as he likes the speed on over this trip. JUST BEEN LUCKY, ANOTHER TAKEOVER and especially FALVELINA can also have a role in the placing’s here.

*Scratching of Carry to fortune throws it wide open!

On Top: 1-BOLD GLANCE

Hardest To Beat: 9-FALVELINA, 4-CRAIGLEE FALCON, 12- JUST BEEN LUCKY

 

 

Race 7: There is speed galore he early with a lot looking to possie up near the lead.1,3,6,9,13 all keen to lead or sit outside pace. 4,5,7,12,14 all keen to be not too far behind the leaders. Nothing would surprise here so I’d be sticking with whatever tickles your fancy. I’m keen on THE REVELLER()SCRATCHED) who will drop out of that battle and be in the last couple on settling. Not sure of a jockey booking, but probably Colless? He has had a few avg rides on the horse, but I think conditions and even the barrier suit. He simply needs to get to the outside and be given a chance to rattle late with no traffic. That can happen here. Whether he can give that much start to these smart ones is yet to be seen, but he will sprout wings late! GOD’S WINDOW is interesting in the fact he improves sharply 2nd up and is good on his day. SPIRIT OF FLATELY(SCRATCHED) may need a touch of luck and his gate does worry me as his pattern is to be on pace. THEFT(SCRATCHED) has drawn wide for the first time in a long time and will have to work overtime. I think he is a winning chance but the last 50m will be the big question, especially if the speed is as hot as I expect it to be. DE BOIS gets a suck run from gate 2 and will get every chance dropping 2kg from his last run which was very good behind Thefifthhole. RAISE UP comes off a really good form race but will need a B.Stewart special from gate 18. RIVER LAD, FANGLES and MR SLICK can all have claims made for them and wouldn’t surprise, but I’m only having the one bet in the race and it will be THE REVELLER e/w. Think RIVER LADE now comes into it and does interest me. I would watch the market and if there is $$ it may pay to follow.

**RIVER LAD if money comes.

 

**After scratchings. add 16,19,20.

On Top: Not interested now after half a dozen scratchings.

 

 

Race 8: Massive fan of MYSTICAL GREY and gets a lot of things in his favour. Has won 3 of 6 second up. 2nd up last time won a Listed race at this track by 1.8L and will improve into this. The more I look at the race the keener I am. He looks like a terrific e/w prospect, look for him late. STAR OF OCTAGONAL brings SYD form and looks to be somewhere near his best again. He will start fav and deserves to be. His form is around Steps In Time and Praecido (who have both run really well since). TOMBOY will have her work cut out this week from a horrible gate and meets Mystical Grey 1kg worse off at the weight. She will however appreciate the step up in distance. LUCKY LUNA is looking for a hat-trick and who’s to say he can’t achieve it. His biggest hurdle is the fact he has had 15 starts at EF and is yet to win?? Also goes up 3.5kg so I’m sure plenty will risk him. SHAMARDASHING is primed for his best run this prep. I was impressed last start and I’d be including him in everything. VIPERA GOLD is simply flying and you should always stick with a mare in form. My only query is that she is about 3 lengths better when there is some juice in the ground. STEEL ZIP gets every chance. Although she is a ‘nutbag’ and I said I had sacked her- JASMINKA is worth thought for quaddie players. I couldn’t back her, but I will throw her in the quad with the blinkers 1st time as it may just sort her head out. God help us all if it makes her worse!

*Like these four trifecta wise.

On Top: 3-MYSTICAL GREY e/w

Hardest To Beat: 4-STAR OF OCTAGONAL, 9-SHAMARDASHING, 6-TOMBOY

 

Race 9: Last leg of quaddie. Some wide gates make this interesting. Will probably go short in quaddie this leg. PURETTAN is ready to win. Not the best 1400m form but think he is older now. His barrier is not that bad after emergencies come out. Happy to be with him. WHISPEROSSA is the obvious danger and Munce gets the perfect gate to work with. He has started fav in 4 of his last 5 and looks as though he is by far the hardest to beat after dropping 4.5kg on his last run and is 2 from 2 second up. Other with a chance but need luck from the gate are SNIP’N’DUCK, MAGIC TARTAN, WIN A MILLION, PRODUCT and ROCK HOME LATE. AL FAHER probably wont get a start but I’d throw her in if she does.

*Depending on prices I’d be happy to back both, or just Purettan e/w.

On Top: 5-PURETTAN

Hardest To Beat: 12-WHISPEROSSA

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Sydney Race 6 no 1 MANAWANUI

Brisbane Race 8 no 3 MYSTICAL GREY ew

Best roughie- Brisbane Race3 no 13 BEGGIN e/w

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: (Races 6-9 today)

 1,3,4,9,12 — 1,3,4,14,16,19,20 — 3,4,6,7,9 — 5,12,

 

MELBOURNE quad:

2,12,14,15 — 1,7,15,16 — 4,6,8 —1,3,5

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Rc 4 no 13 JUDY’S JOY e/w

Melbourne Rc 7 no 6 PANAPIQUE

Melbourne Rc 8 no 5 BIANCON ROSE

*There is also a horse he has been following in KALLOGG in Melbourne. He didn’t want to make it a ‘best bet’ but feels it will run well again.

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 3 March 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

FLEMINGTON (MR)

6

$180,000

AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS

TT

EAGLE FARM (BR)

-

$28,853

RACES 7, 8 & 9

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$45,306

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

 

 

Something I mentioned last week for a mate who does a great job may not have been read by a lot of punters because the site was playing up, so I will mention again here.

**I just want to go over something I mentioned earlier. For those who really get into their punting, you may even pay for other tipping services. If that’s the case and you are not exactly over the moon with them, check out Chris Nelson’s Queensland Trials Review. For the amount of time, work and more importantly WINNERS you get out of it, the service is very reasonable, especially when compared to a hell of a lot of the other ‘professionals?’ that charge more than him.

You may know Chris as the tipster for Brisbane in the BestBets magazine. Your situation may be different to mine, but if I run out of time I usually skip over or miss some trials, simply because it takes so bloody long! But I can tell you there isn’t a bloke who tips more 1st up winners in Australia. I think he had a run leading into last week of 11 winners from his last 13 tips. Anyway he’s a good bloke and an even better judge. It may not be for everyone, but I know it is something a lot of you may like to look at if you want to save some time.

Check the site out for costs and how it all works, so you can see what you think of it and if it will work for you.  www.queenslandtrials.com.au

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

Let’s hope we can make it back to back quadrellas!

Gibbo