‘The Punt’ – 6th July

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Well the Quaddie last week wasn’t a ball-tearer but better to get it than missing out! The best bets were around the mark and hopefully punters had a win with some value around.

This week we head back to Eagle Farm, it was pouring early in the week and it is hard to know how dry the track could get. It will be affected and I think we are probably looking at SLOW, that is what I have done the preview on, but we will have to wait and see.

Rail-  +5m Entire course.

Track- Eagle Farm

****TATTS have JACKPOT Quaddies on Brisbane $100,000 and Melbourne $150,000- So my numbers will be given at the bottom of this page!blackbook

 

 

 

BLACKBOOK runners:

Outstrip – Eagle Farm R1 No.5 (1500m): Very suitable.
Run With Me – Eagle Farm R3 No.7 (1200m): Probably rather dry.
How Fairdinkum – Eagle Farm R4 No.2 (1826m):
Viking Heart – Eagle Farm R4 No.10 (1826m): Could sprint better than these!
Ava’s Delight – Flemington R2 No.1 (1600m):
Storm Burst – Flemington R6 No.9 (1600m): Rain would be great!
Bull Point – Rosehill R1 No.1 (1200m): Not keen on race at the odds
Cradle Me – Rosehill R8 No.6 (1200m):

 

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing, and preview is simply my take on the Brisbane races. Make what you want of the information.

****FINAL UPDATE 8:05am**** complete

Race 1:

I think OUTSTRIP was unlucky to be beaten in Sydney last start and even though he was aimed at a race he missed last week I think he can more than measure up here. Happy enough with the $5.50.

Really don’t want to write off a horse like YOU DID WHAT off the ordinary run on the bog track last week. He is far better than that and can improve sharply.

On Top: 5- OUTSTRIP

Hardest To beat: 2- YOU DID WHAT

 

 

Race 2:

Maidens on a Saturday, not a great betting option.

SOUTHERLY is a blackbooker, he will be very hard to beat, McMahon stays on, he is lightly raced and has a brighter future than most of these. I’m just not keen to take $3 on a wet track.

So goes for TIGER JET who should have broken maiden status by now. A win wouldn’t surprise but odds are well and truly short enough. SPURSWOOD (SCRATCHED)has the same lead up form and may improve with that hit out.

At $15 I will be having something on THAT SNOW ATHLETE. Should have probably won last week when slightly held up. Wet track not an issue, drops 2kg and she will be strong late.

*ORDINARY RACE!

On Top:  12- THAT SNOW ATHLETE  @ $15

Hardest To Beat:  3- SOUTHERLY,  10- TIGER JET

 

 

 

Race 3:

Really good race for CARMINE KING and the key booking of Browne a good pointer. A repeat of any of his runs this prep probably gets the job done here.

KEEP IT MOIST the hardest to beat and was racing well before the rain periods where he missed runs. 42 days between runs but drops to the 1200m which suits.

PRINCESS LYCA comes back off nearly 2yr off and joins Heathcote stable?

RUN WITH ME will be competitive if dead or better track.

NUPTSE good enough to win this on her day but she may be better on top of the ground.

The 3 yr old AVALADYLUCK is in very good form and the Discreet form is very solid. Wet not a concern for her!

STYLE is back off 200 day break, may need the run on the wet track but has won a trial in Syd.

On Top: 3- CARMINE KING

Hardest To Beat: 2- KEEP IT MOIST, 10- AVALADYLUCK, 11-STYLE

 

Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 4:

HOW FAIRDINKUM is in the Blackbook but I would have rathered him over 2000m+. Still a chance in tri’s etc.

I’m banking on VIKING HEART being able to sit a touch closer in an event with a slower tempo stepping up to the 1800m. He should be able to work into it and have too much acceleration at the business end for most of these who may want further.

Bryan Guy has got MIKEN who could easily blow these away on a wet track! 2nd to Fulgar two runs back wins this.. $9 looks generous.

Many others you could make a case for, but happy to back both MIKEN and VIKING HEART.

On Top:  10- VIKING HEART  $7

Hardest To Beat:    9- MIKEN   $9

 

 

 

Race 5:

Very hard race to kick the Jackpot Quaddie off. Not a lot of pace on paper and most chances will get back.

First glance tells you TAX EVADER may be a question at the trip but that may be deceiving. He was strong late in the Glasshouse last week and that is great form for this! He finished alongside BELLTONE who would be $1.90 in a race like this, so the $3.50 is probably an ok price.

LOADED comes up from down south and gets a sneaky claim (1.5kg for Clipperton). More than enough ability to win here and better for two runs back.

PLAYITSTRAIGHT is the on pace horse who is in form and will be hard to run down again.

Heathcote more than capable of getting BALLYBIT ready for a 1st up strike joining his stable and first run from a gelding operation. Browne booked!!

DOUBLE IMPACT and CASH’N’STYLE are always chances in these races and a Slow track would help.

On Top: 10- TAX EVADER

Hardest To Beat: 5- LOADED,  9- PLAYITSTRAIGHT, 12- BALLYBIT

 

 Pineapple Hotel award winner

 

Race 6:

What a low Listed race…

IBICENCO has the 59kg to limp but looks to have absolute panels on these. He is 4th run back and should be rock hard fit here. When most of these are getting a stitch he will be working into it. He won the Sandown Cup 3200m beating a better field and ran 4th in the Lexus so he should make a mess of these.

VERDANT and TURNER BAYOU (also nominated interstate) are the next best stayers.

On Top:  1- IBICENCO

 

 

 

Race 7:

Only a little pace, don’t think it will be a speed battle early. SHAFEEQ, FUNTANTES and LISTEN SON should go forward. If track is wet they are not great chances and may not even run?

I’m happy to think BENNYS BUTTONS gets the run of the race and every chance here. Looked as though he would drop right out in the Healy but found again the last 50m. Handles all conditions and although not overly confident I do have him on top.

GRIFFON lame last start and has to be forgiven.. Colless goes on and should have no trouble getting to outside on straightening from the gate. I’m not big on changing a horses pattern, but I’d look at this as a chance to sit in the first 4 on settling, especially if there are scratchings.

LIESELE going better than it looks, EMOTIONAL CIRCUS has class but would rather it dry.

DELAGO BOLT was strong at the end of the 1200m last start and only needs the pace on to be a major factor.

Browne booked for DOUBTFILLY.

 

On Top:  6- BENNY’S BUTTONS

Hardest To Beat:  3- GRIFFON, 2- DELAGO BOLT

 

 

 

Race 8:

First look at this field and LUKE’S LUCK jumps out. The race is much deeper than that though!

59.5kg and gate 20 for LUKES LUCK (SCRATCHED)is some sort of task! Casino Card, Eximius form is extremely good and he will still be in the finish.’

LITTLE LONG HORN gets the run of the race and gets in with 55kg, a weight lighter than he has carried for some time.

MY SHABELLA was wide at Ipswich on a tight track that didn’t suit and meets LUKE’S LUCK 4kg better off than that run.

SEEN will start fav, has joined Ben Currie stable after a debut win over 1400m on a heavy track. Really hard to get a guide on it but looks pretty handy.

Don’t know what to make of FERMENT, very good on his day but form looks bad. Tongue Tie 1st time may be a pointer to last run? If so he can’t be written off just yet.

SMASHER $19, ELLAWISDOM $21 and ITCHINTOWIN $21 all worth thought at prices in exotics.

 

On Top:  3- LITTLE LONG HORN

Hardest To Beat:  16- SMASHER, 2- FERMENT, 4- MY SHABELLA

 

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 6 No. 1 – IBICENCO    $2.40

Melbourne Race 5 No. 3- RIZIZ   $3

Best Each Way:

Brisbane Race 1 No. 5- OUTSTRIP  $5.50

Brisbane Race 4 No. 10- VIKING HEART  $7

Melbourne Race 4 No. 6- EDGEWOOD

 

BRISBANE Quadrella:

5,8,9,10,12 —– 1 —– 2,3,6,8,12 —– 2,3,4,15,16

 

This weeks best ‘Longshot’ – Brisbane Race 2 No. 12- THAT SNOW ATHLETE

 

Melbourne Quadrella:

3 —– 1,3,4,5,9,,12 —– 2,3,4,7 —– 2,3,4,5       

 

‘The PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 5 No. 12 – BALLYBIT

Sydney Race 4 No. 12 – PHRASES

 

 

****TATTS JACKPOTS and MARKET MOVERS***tattsbet Also a footy preview below..

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 6 July 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

DARWIN (DR)

7

$10,000

DARWIN GUINEAS

QD

EAGLE FARM (BR)

-

$100,000

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

QD

FLEMINGTON (MR)

-

$150,000

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$2,000

4&5YO C’SHIP

F4

MELTON (MT)

5

$1,000

VICBRED SUPER SERIES FINAL

(3YO FILLIES)

F4

MELTON (MT)

6

$1,000

VICBRED SUPER SERIES FINAL

(4YO E&G)

F4

MELTON (MT)

7

$1,000

VICBRED SUPER SERIES FINAL

(3YO C&G)

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$25,250

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

TT

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

-

$4,576

RACES 4, 5 & 6


*Bet responsibly

 

Hopefully we can get a slice of the big Quadrella’s and have a winning weekend!

Whatever you do, have a great weekend!