‘THE PUNT’ Dec 8th E-F

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Let me start by saying this looks an incredibly hard day in brissy and I wouldn’t be throwing the xmas money at them!

There are two or three during the meeting that I like and I will let you know them but it is not a day of great confidence.

Rail- +5.5m … Some rain has fallen Friday as I type.  Possibly a dead surface to start off, but check back in the morning for latest.

*For those who only get on of a Saturday you may be interested in the SPEEDMAP article I did during the week. Simply scroll down on the home page and click on the article.

**JACKPOT QUAD and TRIFECTA in Brissy, so check out the info at the bottom of the page!

 

Blackbookers: Small but select team. I think they should all be competitive.

December 08
HI SON EAGLE FARM R2 No.1 (1600m)
HEZA JETSETTER EAGLE FARM R2 No.2 (1600m)
TIGER DIMEJAN EAGLE FARM R5 No.17 (1200m)
ADEBISI EAGLE FARM R7 No.2 (1200m)

 

All prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing.

 

Race 1:

CHOISENGER is the obvious one here but may start odds on. If that’s the case I couldn’t possibly get involved. He will be better for the impressive debut run but odds on- watch on for me in 2 year old races. CHOOSE A SAGA has also run well in town. JERROCITY creates interest and I wouldn’t rule out here.

*Staying out.

 

Race 2:

First thoughts are the top two fight it out again. HI SON has been gelded and to tell the truth I thought he safely held HEZA JETSETTER although the runner up did have his momentum halted. Just leaning the 1 from the 2. ALLKNIGHT SAINT was pretty good in the same race so must be respected. MISHANI STEALTH is above average but the step up in trip is a slight ? ARGIE’S HEART and LINVILLE can run into first 4’s .

 

 

ON TOP-    1-HI SON    -   2- HEZA JETSETTER

First 4 =      1,2 – 1,2 — 4,5,6,7 – 4,5,6,7

Race 3:

This is the one I see as value for the day. BUSINESS DAY was trading $9+ in the earliest markets around Aust. But was crunched straight to $6.50. The $9 was great value, but she deserves to be every bit of her price now (I don’t want much shorter!) Slow to mature like most Zabeel’s but has hit her straps with 3 great runs in easier grade. Dominant last start and seems to be looking for the 2100m.

1,2,4,5,6,7,8,11 all are easy to make a case for but I will just be backing BUSINESS DAY e/w here.

 

 

ON TOP-     10-  BUSINESS DAY e/w

Race 4:

PACE- 1,2,3,6,7 all push forward and it should be a tempo each horse gets their chance.

SONS OF GOD only issue is getting across and finding some cover. I wouldn’t be concerned if Cahill led on the horse but you wouldn’t want to gas the horse early. He is ultra-consistent without winning but I like The White Hope form line and he will again be hard to beat.

TWIN ZERO beat the fav last start and then ran well in the bush. He can’t be underestimated.

PLAYACTION is a live chance. Fresh at the 1400m he can add some value into first 4’s. PREACHER BOY gets back to a good surface which is the key with him. He probably has a better record over further , and at Doomben though.

EMPRESS ME is going to blow a field away one day but she just gets way too far out of her ground and is becoming frustrating. With the long run to the first turn I’d love to see them try to push forward and see if she can slot in. It is worth a change for one race as she just keeps running on and being beaten 3L or so.

O’GRADY has always promised a bit and his 1st up run behind Lucky Sound was good (that’s good form line).

*Think SONS OF GOD gets to break through for a long awaited win!

 

 

ON TOP-   7-  SONS OF GOD

Others: 1- PLAYACTION, 8-TWIN ZERO, 9-EMPRESS ME

 

 

Race 5:

GOOD LUCK!! Wide in quad is probably the way to go!

Too many to name but will go over a few.

SNIPZU- Liked all her Melb runs and even though she excels on the wet she is well suited at set weights. (She gave Shamal Wind 4.5kg last start and finished midfield!)

LADY COLOURS- 1200m suits her far more than the 1400m last start. Trialled well midweek. I would just about have her on top on a wet track. Can still run well.

CALIENTE- This filly has the X-factor. Has a wide gate but will go back anyway. How much start she gives them is the question but she has had a couple of trials leading in and she has a devastating sprint.

SOOKIE- Very game behind the quality Lucky Hussler. Can mix form but gets the run of the race and a repeat of last start has her right in the money.

SUNSET AFFAIR- (SCR)Has had two runs back and should nearly be peaking here. Drops 1kg from her win.

TIGER DIMEJAN- Relation to Cape Kidnappers and looks nearly as good on debut win. Should get a sweet run from (7). Big jump in grade but worth a throw at the stumps.

SISTER EMMA- Real improver and a good run wouldn’t surprise at odds.

*Could still miss the winner!

ON TOP-  6-CALIENTE ($9)

Others: 7- SOOKIE, 4- LADY COLOURS, 17- TIGER DIMEJAN

Race 6:

BRADBURY CHOCOLATE returns and she has a massive following. Trialled well, has won 7 of 8 and draws the perfect gate. The price ($3.50) is about the right price but this is her biggest task. The biggest plus is the 52kg after the claim, that means she gets 7kg off THEFT.

SIGNIFIED should have won 1st up last prep and improved out of sight. This is a great kick off point for it and is in ok after the claim.

THEFT is always around the money and Munce suits the horse. DELAGO BOLT beat it last start and can again be around the money here.

LAST GIFT is a speed machine and will probably lead, while GDAY OLD MATE is always underrated but can win. He was terrific in two runs in March and he may be the value here.

*Open race, speed galore! Finding it hard to split BRADBURY CHOCOLATE and SIGNIFIED

 

 

ON TOP-   2-SIGNIFIED   + 10- BRADBURY CHOCOLATE

Others:   5- GDAY OLD MATE,  1-THEFT, 4- DELAGO BOLT

Race 7:

Again there should be decent pace with AUDACIOUS SPIRIT kicking up and ADEBISI looking to cross.

I’ve gone for ADEBISI but am willing to concede the 1200m is as far as he wants. If they do go silly early he may be found out. If the speed is even he has the run under his belt and is going extremely well so he is the horse they have to catch.

If it was 1300m I would be tipping BELLTONE. Over the 1200m fresh with gate 1 he can still get the gun run and finish hard. Wood and Munce have the best strike rate in Brisbane and this horse is still on the way up.

I see EXCELLANTES as the blowout horse if there is one. Rob knows best and I may be well off the mark but I’d love to see the horse ridden back from the bad gate. It may not work out, but I think there is a chance of being caught 3 wide if pushing forward and that’s game over too.

STARTSMEUP will get back to midfield I suspect but if the pace is on he will come hard late.

AUDACIOUS SPIRIT, PHELAN READY and MORNING CAPTAIN probably the best of the rest.

 

 

ON TOP-   2- ADEBISI

Hardest To Beat: 3- BELLTONE, 6- EXCELLANTES, 4-STARTSMEUP

 

Race 8:

SOMEDAY and SPOT THE ROCK(SCR) will be the fancied runners and will be up on pace. They do look to have the race between them, but we have had rain as I type Friday and that may bring DOUBLE IMPACT into the race.

SOMEDAY returns from a break but progressed from a maiden to winning a benchmark 85 last prep. We haven’t got to the bottom of him yet.

SPOT THE ROCK(SCR) just went down to the smart Saluter last start and should again get a good run in transit. Big danger!

DOUBLE IMPACT gets a good run from the gate and gets to a much more suitable 1200m. At the price I am just looking for some value and have him on top. (I admit it looks hard to roll the favs)

RAPID LEICA DANE(SCR) , COMMANDARE and now LONGSHOREMAN (if the edge is off the track) are all hopes if going wide in quad.

 

ON TOP-  6- DOUBLE IMPACT —- 8- SOMEDAY

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Best e/w — Brisbane Race 3 No.10 BUSINESS DAY

Brisbane Race 4 No.7 SONS OF GOD

 

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

1,4,6,7,17, 20—– 2,5,10 —– 2,3,6 —– 6,8

 

 

 

THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Brisbane Race 3 No.10  BUSINESS DAY

Melbourne Race 6 No.8 ESPRIT DE BULLET

Sydney Race 6 No.3 CABERNET

 

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 8 December 2012

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
TF EAGLE FARM (BR) 7 $96,439 GEORGE MOORE STAKES
QD EAGLE FARM (BR) - $96,215 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8
         

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $40,000 M1 ONLY
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 5 $5,000 LORD MAYORS CUP
F4 CRANBOURNE (MT) 4 $2,000 BILL COLLINS TROTTERS MILE
F4 CRANBOURNE (MT) 7 $2,000 CRANBOURNE PACING CUP
EX GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $9,986 C2 TO C3

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 WENTWORTH PARK (SG) 8 $1,000 SUMMER CUP FINAL
F4 CANNINGTON (PG) 4 $1,000 ANNIVERSARY CUP FINAL