‘The Punt’ DERBY DAY 2012

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BRING ON MELBOURNE CUP WEEK!

Many punters name the cup, the cox plate as their favourite days, but give me a sunny Derby Day on Australia’s best track and it’s a great recipe for a punt!

It is an open day with big fields and let’s see if we can’t try to get a bank for the race Tuesday!

 

**For those new to the site we have blackbookers below, best bets at the bottom of the article and Quaddie numbers there also.

**I will also have a guide to Betting on the Melbourne Cup from TATTSBET.

*Prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. Feel free to print or pass link on to mates. The more the merrier!

Blackbookers:  (Horses we have picked out to follow over the last couple of weeks)

Very good stable and I’m sure a few winners amongst them!

November 03
FILLYDELPHIA EAGLE FARM R4 No.1 (1400m)
JUGAHLATION EAGLE FARM R7 No.2 (1200m)
AL ANEED FLEMINGTON R1 No.4 (1600m)
CRYSTAL WEB FLEMINGTON R1 No.6 (1600m)
DEAR DEMI FLEMINGTON R3 No.1 (2000m)
ZYDECO FLEMINGTON R3 No.4 (2000m)
SIZZLING FLEMINGTON R4 No.1 (1200m)
STREAMA FLEMINGTON R7 No.1 (1600m)
HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME FLEMINGTON R8 No.6 (1200m)
FREE WHEELING FLEMINGTON R9 No.5 (1400m)

 

 

Race 1:

PACE- Just an even tempo and first thoughts would be that it may suit horses in the first half..

 

 

AL ANEED goes on top. He is still not at his peak, that may be a prep away but he is on the up and Boss gets a lovely run off the pace. If he sits quiet for as long as possible I think he can outsprint them. Looks a nice horse in the making.

PROVERB and TATRA (drops 2.5kg) both looked to be on the ‘staying’ path and this may be an afterthought? Even so they have class, but need to find the sprint in their legs to win here.

LUNA RISE also in the same boat dropping in trip, however I think the freshen up will help and I do respect the horse.

UNION GAP is the other untapped horse (similar to AL ANEED) and they are the type of horses you want in these races. It is the other one who could blow them away.

 

ON TOP-      4-AL ANEED

Hardest To Beat: 8-UNION GAP, 5-LUNA RISE

 

 

Race 2:

PACE- Doesn’t usually matter what it looks like on paper, THE LEXUS is nearly always run at pace with horses trying to get into the Cup and each horse should again get a chance.

 

I’m an unashamed DARE TO DREAM fan. I will state my case. Bart has had the horse for a while and the preparation has all gone to plan bar last start, but that’s not the end of the world as this is the only race he could get a cup start from winning and this is where Bart will peak the horse. He ran the quickest last 600m overall and last 200m sectional last start when spotting leaders 20L and coming 15 wide on the turn. Barrier blanket goes on, but more importantly the blinkers are on 1st time and James McDonald goes back on. If you’re game to question Bart good luck to ya!

GATEWOOD is probably well weighted coming off the Geelong cup win and he has to be the one to beat. Has to be a slight question over 3 runs in 4 weeks with a European stayer but he is flying.

EXCLUDED was great behind Shahwardi in the Herbert Power and Flemington is right up his alley. He is a real improving stayer and was scratched from Bendigo Cup on Wednesday to run here.

TANBY goes up 2.5kg and carries 58kg. He will have a task with that weight but it’s hard to knock winning form and his win over Maluckday was good in the Bart Cummings a few weeks back.

You can go as wide as you like after those named (KELINNI, EXCEPTIONALLY, RUEBEN PERCIVAL etc) but I’m happy to focus on these mentioned and will be backing DARE TO DREAM e/w

 

 

ON TOP-    12- DARE TO DREAM

Hardest To Beat: 1-GATEWOOD, 6-EXCLUDED, 2-TANBY

 

 

Race 3:

PACE-Even tempo over the 2000m and every horse should get their chance.

 

 

In my opinion it is a race with 2 main chances and one possible knockout. Anything else would surprise..

DEAR DEMI and ZYDECO were both exceptional in the Thousand Guineas and that is by far the best fillies form around! DEAR DEMI was held up for a run while ZYDECO circled the field on the corner at Caulfield. I think DEAR DEMI may have ½ a length on ZYDECO over the 2000m but she has to carry 2.5kg more than ZYDECO… Very hard to split them.

Guy Walter is a special at tossing up a filly just before an oaks and again has ZUCCOTTO who can improve sharply. This run may top her off for the oaks, but I’d be surprised if she doesn’t run well.

 

ON TOP-   1-DEAR DEMI + 4-ZYDECO

Roughie- 11- ZUCOTTO

 

Race 4:

PACE- Plenty of pace engaged. There will be horses tiring late and the strongest will win.

 

 

Cracking race and not as clear cut as many would think.

If you have been on SNITZERLAND you will probably stick with her. She is very consistent and has the class needed to win. 3 starts for 2 wins and a second here at Flemington.

SIZZLING has targeted this and I think he really fits the bill. Many thought Sepoy would win by panels last year but the 1200m at Flemington can throw up a result and Foxwedge came hard late to just miss. I think SIZZLING is the horse who will be strong at the end of a fast 1200m here.

NECHITA had an ultra-impressive jump out Tuesday and she is a star. Forget the 1400m Golden Rose where she was galloped on and was on pace. She will settle with cover here and when she lets down not many will go with her.

Many chances who would not surprise at big odds are JOLIE BAY (beaten a nose in a track record last start), FIRE THUNDERBOLT (2nd to Snitzerland last start), KNIGHT EXEMPLAR (Going particularly well)

**CRACKING RACE!

 

ON TOP-   1-SIZZLING

Hardest To Beat: 11-NECHITA, 9-SNITZERLAND, 3-FIRE THUNDERBOLT

 

 

 

Race 5:

PACE- BACK IN BLACK and GLASS HARMONIUM lead but pace should be slow.

 

OCEAN PARK should win but there has been a heap of shorties rolled in this over the years. It will probably be run like the Caulfield stake that didn’t suit him and ALCOPOP nearly beat him on that occasion. In saying that he is the Cox Plate winner and if he is still 100% he should win.

DECEMBER DRAW gets back to 2000m and Flemington which is his bread and butter. You’d be silly to write him off. ALCOPOP has never done much at Flemington but he is in career best form and the run in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding!

PRARIE STAR loomed as though it was going to gap them in the Coongy but didn’t. I’m thinking he needed the run, but may want further now? He’s the best roughie.

ZABEELIONAIRE can fall into first 4’s at value.

 

 

 

ON TOP-: 7-OCEAN PARK

Others: 4-DECEMBER DRAW, 5-PRARIE STAR, 3-ALCOPOP

 

 

Race 6:

PACE- Capacity field and there is sure to be plenty of speed here.

 

**An interesting derby with a lot of the main chances out of sprinting/miler type sires. Fastnet Rock has 3 runners and Testa Rossa has a leading chance also.

I have landed on HONORIUS. Brown and Payne are very keen on his chances and I’m in their corner. He is bred to be the best stayer in this field and he is the horse improving each run. Flemington will suit. Gate 2 gets him an economical run and I think we will see the best stayer prevail around $7 on www.tatts.com .

SUPER COOL and IT’S A DUNDEEL ran 1,2 in the vase last week and are the main contenders. I’m the head on the IT’S A DUNDEEL fan club, but he’s a small horse who has had a long prep and SUPER COOL put a length on him over the last 200m last week. For that reason I think SUPER COOL can again beat him home.

HVASSTAN and ELECTRIC FUSION were both very good in the Norman Robinson. Both have been in terrific form and both have great jockeys. They are hard to split and are also going to be right in the finish.

From that race SUBIASO was enormous and is the forgotten horse. No doubt in my mind he is the best ‘roughie’. He was chopped out completely at the 150m and rattled late. Even though he is by a sprinting sire in Testa Rossa, he is out of a Carnegie mare to help get the trip.

 

 

ON TOP-   3- HONORIUS

Others: 9-SUBIASO, 4-SUPER COOL, 5-HVASSTAN, 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL

 

Race 7:

PACE-Not much pace on paper here and a lot depends on how Oliver rides OASIS BLOOM. PEAR TART will work across from gate 8 and STREAMA will tag her across to sit nicely on the leaders shoulder. The fly in the ointment is if Oliver pushes up and holds the front, can Hughie find the spot behind the leaders or does he work harder and push on?

 

Happen to think STREAMA can sit on pace and prove too strong at set weights against her own sex. Flemington and 1600m should be tailor made for the daughter of Stratum. She was back to her best in the Tristarc and that would have just topped her off for this her grand final.

PEAR TART should not be underestimated. Even though her record is superior on wet tracks, she is effective on top of the ground and her last 50m was very strong at Caulfield. She meets most horses from that race better off here (meets Streama on same weights)

SECRET ADMIRER may be dropping back from 2400m of the Caulfield Cup but the drop in grade to set weights mares race is an enormous plus. It’s been a long time since she has had the opportunity to take on the girls in a race like this. Any rain would be a big help.

RED TRACER another who’d love rain. She will run well and my only concern is the last 50m as she seems like a true 1400m horse?

YOSEI has been flying with no luck. You’d think Flemington would suit but her record is not great here. She just needs luck in running to be in the finish. The form around OASIS BLOOM is standing up well and she is probably the one that could surprise a few. A dry track is a big tick and she gets the perfect run in the race up on pace!

Best horse at a huge price in my opinion is SHANNARA who will be better suited at Flemington from the good gate.

*The race doesn’t end there and it will be a cracker as usual.

 

 

 

ON TOP-   1-STREAMA

Hardest To Beat:  6-PEAR TART, 10-OASIS BLOOM,

 

 

Race 8:

PACE- 1,3,6 put plenty of pace into the race. Cover would be a bonus and the last horse off the bit usually wins these races.

 

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME is over the line isn’t he?? It is remarkable the hype this horse has got in a 2 week period… I do think he will win and I do think he is pretty special but can’t believe he will start odds-on… Whatever beats him will win.

Really think Gollan will have SPIRIT OF BOOM ready to run his career peak here and he gets a nice dry track that the horse needs. He relaxes so well down the straight and that’s the key to winning these races.

TIGER TEES, PAMPELONE and GOLDEN ARCHER all have similar racing patterns and all consistent types.

FONTELINA looks ‘overs’ at $26 and carried 59kg 1st up last prep to beat Said Com. Has 54kg here and trialled behind Sea Siren..

*Good type of race, can’t wait to see if the fav makes the next step in grade.

 

 

ON TOP-     6-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME

Next Best: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM, 1-TIGER TEES

Roughie: 13-FONTELINA

 

 

                                                                 RACE 9:

PACE: McCLINTOCK and DUSTY STAR are the leaders and even though they set a fair clip these 1400m races around Flemington really suit front runners and they can be competitive.

 

MCCLINTOCK can be hard to catch here at nice odds. As mentioned front runners have a good record over this trip and $9 is a nice price.

In saying that I think FREEWHEELING looks one of the best of the day. He is $3.40 at the time of typing but I’d suspect money will come.  Form around Tiger Tees and Pear Tart last prep is outstanding and he won with his head on his chest 1st up this prep. He will be better  for that run and he should get the gun run 3rd, 4th behind the pace.

FAWKNER has won 4 and placed in 1 of his 6 starts at Flemington. Although he’d probably rather the sting out he is one of the top rated and he drops 2.5kg off winning a Listed race last start.

MORANT, INSTINCTION and definitely BOLD GLANCE the QLD’er all have legitimate chances.

 

ON TOP:       5-FREEWHEELING

Hardest To Beat: 8-MCCLINTOCK, 4-FAWKNER, 3-BOLD GLANCE

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Melbourne Race 7 No.1 STREAMA

Melbourne Race 9 No.5 FREE WHEELING

Best each way- Race 6 No.3 HONORIUS

 

MELBOURNE Quadrella numbers:

**Although it is such a big day, I have decided to keep it a bit skinny and save a big outlay.

1,3,4,5,9 —– 1,3,6,10 —– 6 —– 3,4,5,8

 

 

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Brisbane  Race 6 No.11 EMPRESS ME

Brisbane Race 8 No.3 REGULAR

 

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS: (More will be updated later today)

$17,000 Treble Jackpot ADELAIDE.

 

TATTS MARKET MOVERS:::

EAGLE FARM

1/7 Sister Magic $3.8 to $3.3

 

ROSEHILL

4/2 Lucripetous $5.5 to $4.8

4/4 Angelus $4.6 to $4.0

 

FLEMINGTON

1/9 Right To Roam $35 to $21

2/1 Gatewood $2.75 to $2.6

3/4 Zydeco $2.9 to $2.8

4/3 King Thunderbolt $10.0 to $7.5

4/8 Knight Exemplar $14.0 to $12.0

6/1 It’s A Dundeel $2.85 to $2.7

7/1 Streama $3.5 to $3.0

 

**Thanks for checking in. Good luck on the punt Derby Day!

Have a cracking weekend!