‘The Punt’ Doomben 10,000 day

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Welcome to ‘The Punt’ section once again! For those new to the site this is simply my preview of the big day at Doomben.

The situation at the moment is that rain has been predicted and falls of around 25ml are meant to fall Friday. As you would understand that makes life very difficult for me to try and steer you in the right direction. There could be a heap of scratchings which throw speed maps out the window, and we may or may not get the rain?

I will do my best to lend a hand and give you as much info as possible. Like most wet days around Doomben I think I have found a few value bets throughout the day.

**A couple of little changes this week. Mick Sharkie’s preview of a couple of the Melbourne Races will be included in this ‘Punt’ section. You can find it under the jackpot information at the bottom of the page.

**A quick congrats to ‘The Prophet’ with 2 from 2 last week at great prices ($9 + $6) I know a heap of the followers were very happy!

**Also I would like to welcome Topline thoroughbreds on board. There is an article on the front page if you would like to know more about their setup. Or simply click on the banner of their outstanding youngsters on the right hand side of the page.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

May 26
SHEZAHOTSHOT DOOMBEN R1 No.7 (1615m)- Well suited at big odds.
KELBENJAR DOOMBEN R2 No.2 (1200m)- One of my best bets.
VIKING HEART DOOMBEN R2 No.5 (1200m)- Probably over the odds now it’s drier.
SATURN ROCK DOOMBEN R3 No.13 (1350m)- Competitive
DUSTY GOLD DOOMBEN R4 No.1 (1350m)
SOROS DOOMBEN R5 No.5 (2200m)- Very good chance. Nice horse
DURNFORD DOOMBEN R5 No.7 (2200m)
PINWHEEL DOOMBEN R7 No.7 (1350m)
EXCELLANTES DOOMBEN R8 No.5 (1110m)- Wet was a concern. Can win on a dead track.
LUCRIPETOUS  ROSEHILL R3 No.2 (2000m)- Like this horse today.
ALTAI WARRIOR ROSEHILL R7 No.14 (1200m- Can run well. Wants it dry to show best.

**All prices are TattsBet prices at time of typing.

**THIS PREVIEW HAS BEEN DONE FOR A SLOW/DEAD SURFACE**

 

 

UPDATE- As of 9am Friday only 1ml of rain.. !!! Forecast has unfortunately been way off all week.

 

 

Race 1: Very open race to kick off. I like SHEZAHOTSHOT at big odds here on TattsBet $17 + $5. At that price she will be my only bet and something small each way looks the go. She is fourth up into this and gets a good run from this awkward starting point. Rain is not a concern and Cooksley is riding well. THEY WON’T LAST gets through the mud and can run well. My only query is that it usually helps to be on pace when it’s wet at Doomben and he may get out of his ground. AUSWORLD is always a chance in a race like this and although he doesn’t win often, he usually puts in. LOVINGTHELIMELIGHT return from NZ and she is a pretty decent horse. If she gets in from the gate she is a winning chance. ANGUSROY (SCRATCHED)destroyed them at the midweek’s last start and I do think he is the improver and the unknown in the race. EASTLINE worth thought for first 4’s with a dynamite record on the track at $26..

*Shezahotshot + Angusroy (SCR)get the right runs.

On Top: 7-SHEZAHOTSHOT ew @ $17

Next Best:  8-LOVINGTHELIMELIGHT, 4-EASTLINE

 

Race 2: It may not be the best race on the card but it will be a good race and keen on KELBENJAR. He is a very nice horse and has simply had no luck his last couple. Two starts ago he reared and missed it by 10L. Last start he jumped on the bunny and stuck hard to the fence in the GC guineas, that was the worst part of the track and was only collared at the 100m and was beaten 2.8L in a good field. If it’s wet it will not faze him in the least. There are some other promising horses but at around $4 KELBENJAR is hard to go past. RUN WITH ME keeps running well at decent odds and was a good winner last start at Ipswich. DEVINE CITY had a great prep last time out and has trialled twice. I’d expect her to run well but would rather it dry. Steve Hewlett commented BRADBURY CHOCOLATE is the ‘Black Caviar of the bush’ and he’s not far off. She’s won 5 from 5 at the bush tracks by a total of about 36 lengths! It is hard to line that up obviously as it never happens. LONGSHOREMAN, AQUATORIAL and RETSINA who gets the blinkers on first time are probably the best of the rest. VIKING HEART is a terrific young horse but his record on wet surfaces is ordinary and he would be far better suited on a dry track.

On Top: 2-KELBENJAR

 

 

Race 3: Not a race I will be getting too involved in. HOSS AMOR will be ridden a touch quieter and will have every chance. She can atone from last start against a similar bunch. SATURN ROCK was very good late in that race and she will again be swooping late. She looks like a kiwi that has thrived since arriving. CHOICE BRO is aimed at the T.J and will take improvement from this run but he is in the mix from a nice gate. Although it was a much easier race HI SON is worth thought for exotics as his win the other day at the GC was good. HOOLEY GADOLEY and REGULAR may find it tough to win, but again can fall into first 4’s.

On Top: 10-HOSS AMOR

Trifecta:  10 — 1,2,7,13

 

Race 4: EMVOSS and DEMANDING MISS are the two that really interest me. I can never seem to catch the mare, so I am sticking with the very consistent EMVOSS. He looked as though he may have needed the run 1st up and he will have come on from that run. The bonus is he doesn’t have to spend any petrol from gate 7 and the NZ whiz kid is on board. At $4.50 and $1.88 I will be on him ew and that will be my only bet in the race. DEMANDING MISS has the awkward gate to overcome but has BOWMAN on. If the track stays in the dead range DUSTY GOLD is right in this race. 56kg after the claim is a good weight and he will fly late. HOUR OF PERIL was terrific 1st up, I have a feeling it may like it heavy, but hard to knock. GREY ASSIGNMENT is the best roughie and was a great run 1st up. At $21 he is well worth thought. CAPTAIN CLAYTON and GUNNER KNOX (SCR)also have claims.

On Top: 8-EMVOSS e/w

Next Best: 7-DEMANDING MISS, 3-GREY ASSIGNMENT, 1-DUSTY GOLD

 

Race 5: SOROS is the best horse in this race in my opinion. His biggest problem may be the tempo. There is very little pace on paper and he will get back as he just doesn’t go early. If something does try to turn this into a staying race and put some tempo into he will be the one. His win over DURNFORD was very good and he meets that horse 3.5kg better off for beating him! VATUVEI has had a month between runs after a highly impressive win in the VRC St Leger 2800m on a heavy 8. If he runs up to that effort he is right in this. I rate them as superior to the other stable mate BRAMBLES. Many will come up with him for sure, and fair enough, but I’m not as sold. The big plus for him is the fact he can settle well in front of his main dangers and a slow tempo would give him every chance. ISOPACH finds it very hard to win but has run well in the Tulloch (G2), Frank Paker (G3) and the Rough Habit up here last start. EURYALE looks to have found form last time out when it beat a smart one in Lucripetous in Sydney. She has always promised a lot and very interested to see how she goes. RED SHIFT is a handy kiwi and from the good gate she can run into first 4’s etc.

**Now it’s dead Brambles moves up the list a little for me, and just goes on top of Vatuvei.

On Top: 5-SOROS

 

 

Race 6: The wetter the better for ABSOLUTELY. Has there been enough rain fall by this stage? Shis is a good quality mare who has competed at the top level most of her career, you can’t say that about her opposition. Not many of these would get within 4L of MORE JOYOUS in a Doncaster. They have been hoping for rain and off a good trial last week I’m more than happy to be on her at a great price of $7 ew. I don’t think the track will get to heavy, but her only win was on a heavy 10 when she won the AJC oaks by 3 ½. DANCE WITH HER swims as good as she runs! She will roll along up on the pace which may be an advantage and she will be hard to run down. WAZN has been great his 1st two runs back, Brown takes the ride and he is well and truly up to this. He will probably have to go back a touch further than expected, but if Brown gets a nice spot with cover he’s the one to beat. SHAMARDASHING some hope if it pours rain. IRONSTEIN is getting to his peak and gets a cushy run from (1), he was good in the Chairman’s last start from a bad gate. FRUEHLING has a good gate, light weight and is the horse we are still learning about. If he gets a run keep him very safe! LARRY’S NEVER LATE has not got a mention, but he can get sharp improved with Dunn on from a good gate!

On Top Selections: 2-ABSOLUTELY, 1-IRONSTEIN, 3-LARRY’S NEVER LATE, 6-WAZN

 

 

Race 7: This maps looks straight forward (but that can be famous last words) PAMPALONNE jumps and lets ADEBISI and BUFFERING cross. This leaves him in the box seat smoking a pipe behind them. Whoever jumps best SEA SIREN or LADY ANGEL will sit outside him in fourth. I think what that does is possibly keep BEADED three wide and that is the big query on her. Obviously if they string right out she may slot in, but they won’t push too hard on BUFFERING after a setback going to 1350m. BUFFERING will look the winner at the 150m. The great unknown is can he hold on? I will be cheering, but I can’t have him on top. Both the 3 year olds SEA SIREN and PAMPALONNE are outstanding types, but it is hard to take the short odds about them. Three year olds usually perform better in the straddie, but I do think they are extremely good and will get every chance from their good draws. MID SUMMER MUSIC at $13 is where I have landed here. We all know she has the Black Caviar form last prep and she has been going pretty good this prep. I thought she was ridden to the track conditions last start and was too close to the action. She can sit a few pairs back and get a great run in transit. At $13 she represents good value and track conditions won’t faze her. LADY’S ANGEL has never gone better and if it happened to get to heavy she should be considered for exotics. PINWHEEL has never gone better and is ultra-consistent. Snowden has been glowing in reports about the horse and this is suitable. PHELAN READY is going well but has a task getting back on a track where his record isn’t great. The rain brings TEMPLE OF BOOM into this. I don’t think 1350m is really his go, but the main concern is Doomben. He loves open spaces as seen by his wins at Flemington and Randwick. He hasn’t won here yet.

*NOTE: If the track happened to stay in the dead range WOORIM is a must for exotics. He hasn’t missed a place in his 4 starts this track/trip. More importantly his run in the BTC cup was far better than it looked and 1350m is more suitable. With rain during the meeting it would dampen his chances, but a dead Doomben surface is great for him.

On Top: 13-MID SUMMER MUSIC

Hardest To Beat: 16-SEA SIREN, 4-BUFFERING, 12-PAMPALONNE

 

 

Race 8: This is the last race I am typing and the mail is we are not going to get as much rain!! That gives EXCELLANTES his chance to string a couple of wins together. Some will arguehis dead and slow form is not as good. I agree that he is better on a good track, but a couple of the dead and slow runs were at 1200m+ and against harder company. If it stays in the dead range I would be pretty confident with him. Browne is usually the key to this horse winning, but McDonald is as good as you can get to replace him. SEEK AND FIND was very tough beating NUPTSE last start and he gets the run of the race from gate 1. Kelso Wood is on fire and this horse will again be right in the finish. There is not a lot of speed underneath NUPTSE and she may find a spot a few pairs back. She is unbeaten 2nd up and is an improving type. If the surface is good/dead HAVATRYST will give this a real shake. He is safe in the betting at $7.50 and they usually back the horse if he is going well so watch the market. He has won 3 of 4 1st up. ROCKER is the other chance and he is lengths better on top of the ground. I couldn’t have him in this race if it got wet, but on top of the ground it wouldn’t surprise to see him towel them up. $11 is a generous price put up by the boys at Tatts!

*I have thrown an extra selection in here as I think there are 5 distinct chances.

On Top: 5-EXCELLANTES

Hardest To Beat: 14-ROCKER , 4-SEEK AND FIND, 8-HAVATRYST, 10-NUPTSE

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 2 no 2 KELBENJAR

Best Each Way- Brisbane Race 4 no 8 EMVOSS

**Interstate allup—

SYD rc 3 no 2- LUCRIPETOUS + Melb rc 4 no 9 JOHANNAPINE + Melb rc 5 no 6 SOFT SAND

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

2,5,11,14 —- 1,2,3,6 —- 4,6,7,12,13,16 —- 4,5,8,10,14

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 7 no 13 MID SUMMER MUSIC @ $12

Melbourne Race 6 no 3 TWO SUGARS @ $12

 

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

forSaturday, 26 May 2012

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 DOOMBEN (BR) 7 $300,000 DOOMBEN 10,000
         
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $20,000 M1 ONLY
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 4 $2,000 JOE ILSLEY CUP
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 6 $2,000 NSW TROTTERS DERBY
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 7 $2,000 TROTTERS C’SHIP FINAL
EX GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $10,636 C3 TO C5

 

INTERSTATE PREVIEW

 

**Mick Sharkie from www.theshark.com.au has again joined us to give us a lead into a couple of the Melbourne races. You can also follow Mick on TVN as he is on ‘GET ON’. Check out his site  for the interstate mail.

I’m sure you will enjoy his preview!

It has been pouring rain in Melbourne and the track is expected to be Heavy. The rail is out 6m.

 

RACE 3 (1.00pm) 2400m Open Hcp
Expected Pace – Moderate (leaders should be favoured)
If the $4 holds up about NO. 8 HURDY GURDY MAN I would be very keen to have a good bet here – the horse is holding a really good rating through his last four starts and is giving no indication of dropping off. His Warrnambool campaign was terrific – a ridiculously easy win on Tuesday was followed by a ripper run in the W’bool Cup and we’ve seen that form stand up lately (Dance With Her won again, Fineguerra won next start, Swooper won next start). Hopefully Hall has him sitting midfield at worst – he won’t want to give NO. 4 PLACEMENT (SCRATCHED)much of a head start. She is racing in fine fettle and has not finished further back than second in her last five starts. She gets through slow ground well but she hasn’t seen a deck like this since the AJC Oaks and she was hopelessly beaten there – it’s a slight concern but a 3kg claim gets her in light and she gets a soft run on speed. NO. 1 DOMESKY is going to need luck to come from near the tail to run these down but he is well and truly adept in these conditions and also comes through that W’bool Cup. Look for a cheeky run from NO. 7 GEEJAYAITCH – I hope you all took some of the $15 available when I emailed on Thursday afternoon, he’s now into $9 with a heavy track in his favour (7 starts 4 wins).
TIPS –
8,  1, 7
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (price looks attractive for top rater)
BETTING ADVICE – I’m keen to back Hurdy Gurdy Man to win if that $4 holds up assuming nothing is scratched, he is the horse to beat. Take a saver on the exacta 4 / 1, 8 for multiple units

RACE 4 (1.35pm) 1000m Open Hcp
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
I’m nowhere enar as confident about this race as I was when assessing it for a dead track, and I also expect at least three scratchings if the track is rated heavy. Although I am not totally convinced about her on a heavy track, NO. 9 JOHANNAPINE is still the top pick – she is the best horse in the race and is open to further improvement, I can’t say that about any of her rivals. At her only heavy track run she missed the start and settled midfield at Sandown over this distance before sprinting quickly to challenge before lugging out over the last 100m. She defeated NO. 5 QUEEN DELIGHT by 3 lengths on that occasion at level weights and there is little to sway me in favour of that rival for this renewal. Queen Delight is fast and potentially could give this field the slip off the bend, her last start failure worries me and I expect Johannapine to maintain a class edge over her. NO. 6 ALPHA PROXIMA will really bounce off its latest run at Wagga and he has some solid heavy track form earlier in his career. Oliver is a bonus at this level, especially at this weight. NO. 4 BEYOND PARDON is the potential knock out – he can really improve out of sight without warning, and this smacks like a race in which he can repeat that trend.
TIPS – 9, 5, 6, 4
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (suspect top pick will win despite conditions)

BETTING ADVICE – Tricky. A win bet Johannapine if you want to play, I expect her class to show up despite the conditions

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember if you are on FACEBOOK- ‘like’ brissyraces so you don’t miss out on the latest articles., and tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo