‘The Punt’ Eagle Farm 24th Nov

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First of all let me apologize as this will be a short Punt section. Been pretty crook this week but want to get something up for you loyal followers. Hopefully I can still help steer you into a few winners!

EAGLE FARM

RAIL +1m

Blackbookers:  (Pretty good Blackbook team and I’d expect a couple of winners)

November 24
ANTIQUE BELLE ASCOT R7 No.13 (1600m)
DOMINATING ASCOT R7 No.7 (1600m)
THE WHITE HOPE EAGLE FARM R5 No.6 (1400m)
LOUISVILLE DANCER MOONEE VALLEY R8 No.11 (1200m)
SOROS ROSEHILL R3 No.6 (2000m)
ZAUBERFLOTE ROSEHILL R4 No.6 (1500m)

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com at time of typing.


Race 1:

 

Don’t know enough about these to be tipping..

ON TOP-

 



Race 2:

Good race with speed to burn as you’d expect.

THEFT gets back to 1000m and this is a drop in grade. That makes me lean his way but he gets the 59kg leveller.

JUGAHLATION was dominant on a wet track last prep and if it happened to get those conditions again it can repeat the dose. Hard to beat no matter the conditions.

DOUBLE IMPACT kicked off last prep with a 3rd in the G3 GC Guineas and has to be respected.

 

ON TOP-    2- THEFT

Next best: 4-JUGAHLATION, 5- DOUBLE IMPACT

 


Race 3:

Can’t believe some places opened $3+ for HEZA JETSETTER. Although he has 59kg I think he has improved out of site and we are nowhere near the bottom of him. I think General Exhibit is a serious horse and this bloke reeled him in and monstered him late last start. Happy to be with the horse on the upward spiral.

Respect Brad Herne’s opinion and he told us in the article through the week ALLKNIGHT SAINT is one of the better horses in his stable.

Blinkers 1st time may do the trick with CABALLO RAPIDO.


ON TOP-    1-  HEZA JETSETTER

 



Race 4:

A really open race but that lead to a good betting race with $4.50 fav. RUN ROYAL RUN (SCR)gets back to a dry track, gets a cheap run from gate 3 and Cahill stays on.

BUFFET always runs well but would probably like it 2400m + for him.

Respecting DANE PRINCESS (2nd to Post Restante last start) and DODGING EDDIE 4th in the same race and blinkers off first time and meets DANE PRINCESS 4kg better off.

MARKED flying but has task with 59kg. MARKOUT probably wants it a touch wetter but worth thought.

**Not too keen after RUN ROYAL RUNs scratching

 


ON TOP-     8- DODGING EDDIE

 

 

 

Race 5:

THE WHITE HOPE looked incredible winning cup day and ran good time. He has a high cruising speed and whatever wants to take him on will most likely get a stitch. If that happens can he hold on? I think he has enormous upside and he should win. $1.90 is a bloody short quote however!

MY QUILTER and GUNNER KNOX (SCR)are the tough old heads who would be the main dangers. If THE WHITE HOPE is to be beaten I think MY QUILTER would be the horse.

MUJAHU will be $40-50 and worth thoughts in first 4’s.

*With the fav and may play wide trifecta     6 – 3,5,11,16 – 3,5,11,16


ON TOP-  6-THE WHITE HOPE

Others: 3,5,11,16

 

 


Race 6:

Another very open race and I think you have to look for value, and I think I have found it.

SOFT ANGEL will come up double figures and is looking to bring up a hat trick. This is a step up  in grade but she drops 4kg on her last win and 5kg on the win before that. The only question is that the 1400m sees her right out but she should get an economical run from gate 3 and Lloyd is a positive also. She will come up double figures and I’d be throwing her into calculations.

LADY AGHULUS and PERFECTRESS have been around a while and deserve to be in the market. Both come off very good last start runs.

ROCKSAN and TICKET TO DREAM will get to midfield and if the pace is on they will hit the line hard.

NOT TO SHARE was very well backed to win last start and the stable is going particularly well! Can repeat.

 

 

ON TOP-   16-SOFT ANGEL

Others: 13-NOT TO SHARE, 2- PERFECTRESS, 7- ROCKSAN

 

 


Race 7:

The best race on the card and hard to line them up. Most are 1st up, and a few chances are 2nd up. Some are coming off heavy track form and should be forgiven. Nothing would surprise.

*I have a bit of pace in this race. Sets it up for all horses getting their chance.

LISTEN SON, CELTIC DANCER, AUDACIOUS SPIRIT, HAVATRYST, EASY RUNNING all push forward and are the first 5 in running.

STEEL ZIP gets a great run behind them and at $17 I think he is well over his right price.

EXCELLANTES was super at Flemington and not many of these would get within a length of Unpretentious.

AUDACIOUS SPIRIT is a speed machine and will really want the lead. He will look the winner at the 150m, it’s just a matter of how much juice he has had to use early.

EASY RUNNING $10 and HAVATRYST $21 will start those decent odds off ordinary runs on the heavy last start but can be the fly in the ointment jumping from the inside gates and if they hold their spots they may force other chances into using some petrol early..

*I may be wrong, but I think it’s very even and if the pace is on as I except I will look for value.

 

ON TOP-     5- CARRY ME BLUEY

Hardest To Beat: 7-STEEL ZIP, 9- AUDACIOUS SPIRIT, 4-EXCELLANTES

 

 

 

Race 8:

SALUTER beat our horse Caldetes last prep and I thought he was outstanding winning the 1400m $250k QTIS feature. He takes on the older horses here with 56.5kg but has Browne and gate 7. If he is as good as I think he is than he is more than capable of winning.

SPOT THE ROCK is a nice horse however with 59kg against these he will have to be better than I think he is.

There may be value to be had in exotics. I like a few at odds- ALTAI WARRIOR (will flash late), DIVINE CITY (58kg against the boys?), DR ICHI (consistent), SPIHNRO(trialled good) and STRIKE THE TIGER all have hopes with luck in running.

Tony Sears was very upbeat about ROYAL SHOUT on RadioTab Friday morning. Originally I wasn’t real keen, but down on the minimum and with confidence about he is probably worth throwing in quaddies.

*SALUTER for me e/w.

 


ON TOP-      9- SALUTER e/w

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Best win bet:  Perth Race 9 No.1 LUCKYGRAY

Best Each way: Brisbane Race 8 No.9 SALUTER

Best Allup: Brisbane- Race 3 No.1 -HEZA JETSETTER + Race 5 No.6 -THE WHITE HOPE

 

*This week’s quaddie rundown. You could obviously go THE WHITE HOPE one out to get the bigger % and that may be the way to go, but I’m just respecting MY QUILTERs dry track form.

*A couple of blowouts over the carnival made it tough for the quad’s but I think we can get back in the winner’s circle this weekend. Obviously we are still looking for some value in the middle legs and looking for fav’s to get rolled.

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

3,6 —-1,2,7,8,13,16 —– 4,5,7,9,10,11 —– 5,7,8,9,12,15

 


‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bets:

 

Sydney Race 7 No.11 OUR DESIGN

Sydney Race 8 No.5 CHOICE WORDS

Melbourne Race 5 No.8 LUCRIPITOUS

 

*You can hear a quick rundown on

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/#!home/mainPage where I chat with AJ on some of the weekend races. Sorry about the croaky voice and being a bit all over the place, just getting over being crook.

 

TATTS MONEY TRAIL AS OF FRIDAY MORNING:

EAGLE FARM

2/5 Double Impact $8.0 to $7.0

2/7 Delago Bolt $10.0 to $7.5

7/5 Carry Me Bluey $9.0 to $8.0

7/10 Easy Running $15.0 to $10.0

 

ROSEHILL

6/9 Zanughan $21.0 to $14.0

8/8 Excellent Point $21.0 to $17.0

 

MOONEE VALLEY

Nothing of note to report

 

ASCOT

8/5 Barakey $2.70 to $2.45

8/7 Travinator $6.5 to $4.8 back to $5.0

9/2 Fat Al $9.0 to $7.5

 

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

 

for

Saturday, 24 November 2012

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 EAGLE FARM (BR) 7 $150,000 KEITH NOUD HANDICAP
F4 ASCOT (PR) 9 $25,000 RAILWAY STAKES
QD EAGLE FARM (BR) - $87,982 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8


POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 7 $2,000 TROTTERS SERIES FINAL
F4 MELTON (MT) 7 $2,000 THE LEGENDS
F4 BUNBURY (PT) 5 $2,000 BUNBURY CUP
QD ALBION PARK (BT) - $63,369 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5
TT GLOBE DERBY (AT) - $2,347 RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

*Thanks for checking in and GOOD LUCK if you have a bet on the weekend!