‘The Punt’ Eagle Farm Dec 1

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Welcome to ‘The Punt’.

It was nice to get back into the quaddies winners circle last week and let’s hope we can back it up this week. As long as the storms hold off it looks a great day for a punt and the track should race fair!

UPDATE: Forecast is for a hot Friday and Saturday- 32 degrees, so any chance of a dead track looks gone.


EAGLE FARM

RAIL +3M     TRACK- GOOD (3) as at Friday morning (should stay that way.)

Blackbookers:

December 01
CARRY THE NATION ASCOT R8 No.1 (1500m)- Nice e/w odds
ROCKSAN EAGLE FARM R6 No.10 (1600m)- $17 seems ‘overs’
LUCKY SOUND EAGLE FARM R8 No.13 (1400m)- Even luck sees him win
MATABRAHMA EAGLE FARM R8 No.14 (1400m)- May run quinella with above horse
AL’S GOLD WARWICK FARM R6 No.4 (1600m)-Always a chance in a race like this.
November 30
KUKLA  MOONEE VALLEY R4 No.2 (1600m)

 

*You can hear a quick preview with AJ on the Helter Skelter website

www.helter-skelter.com.au

*Prices are www.tatts.com at time of typing.



Race 1:

Another tricky 2 yr old race.

Only guessing here, but on I have LONDAHERO, MINSKY’S GIRL and MISS SHEBRING as the most interesting of the unraced horses.

IN THE SKY ROCKET and SISTER MAGIC as possibly the best of the raced brigade.

Follow any betting leads but it looks tough as it usually does with so many unraced.

 

ON TOP-  4,5,9 ??


                                                                   Race 2:

With all due respect- Rubbish race that doesn’t interest me.

POST RESTANTE has panels on these if all was even but in a muddling race any jockey can take off at the 1000m and turn it into a lottery.

*I’m staying out. If she wins easy I don’t care I missed out on the $1.80.



ON TOP-    N/A

 



Race 3:

Very open race. Value to be had, but which runners represent value?

I have all the pace drawn wide. 1,4,6 all push forward while 10 also pushes up. That surely puts enough early pace into it t make it a truly run race. Midfield with cover would be ideal.

If we get a drop of rain I think MARCULOO  $5.50 is an e/w bet to nothing. She is honest, she is in form and she will fly late over the long E-F straight. Should have won last start and gapped 3rd on that occasion. NOTE: Her record however is much inferior on hard ground.

RED GOD is ready to win. I thought maybe 1800m may be the go after the 1600m wet track run (where he had no luck) but at $13 you would be game to say he can’t. He’s going better than that price says.

LEICA BITA LIPPY has won or placed in 9 of 11 starts and will be up on pace. Ran well behind Perfectress last start and should be respected. BLOW A KISS will be pouring the pressure on around the corner and it will be tough for the front runners.

ENDLESS SHADOW looking for a hat trick and gets the right run.

ON TOP-   If dead or worse confident     9- MARCULOO   is the one.

**Dry?- Probably won’t bother.

 



Race 4:

Looks a race in two.

KILLWING OPTION and SLOEBID are very nice horses and should fight this out.

Leaning KILLWINNING OPTION’s way and made it an early market best on RadioTab Thursday. He returns a gelding, has won 4 of 5 fresh and ran 2nd on the other occasion, gets in with 55.5kg after the claim, but most importantly gets gate 2 and the box seat run!

SOLEBID also flies fresh and can win, however where he gets to from gate 11 is the question? He likes to race on pace but got back 1st up last prep and grew wings late. They may try the same thing this time in but you don’t want to give too much start away.

4,5,8,9,11 best of the rest.

*happy to back kilwinning, but may be a nice race for a small first 4.

FIRST  4:    2,7 –  2,7  — 4,5,8,9,11  — 4,5,8,9,11 (A lazy $10 gets 25%)


ON TOP-    2-KILWINNING OPTION

Hardest to beat:   7-SOLEBID

 

 

 

Race 5:

My map has BOUND TO BLUSH pushing hard to lead with DREAM’N’IGNITE and FUNTANTES pushing up underneath and making it hard to cross. They settle 2nd and 3rd with CUDDLESOME, FIRE UP FIFI and JESTER’s GIRL close up. GAI’S CHOICE and RISK AVERSION get back and will have to swoop, but they are good enough!

If it was 1400m i would have Risk Aversion and Gai’s Choice as clear on top selections. They will need the early speed to continue throughout to be able to run over the top here. I personally think the key to GAI’S CHOICE is the sting out. She is far superior on dead or worse. RISK AVERSION is just a star and I think a Group 1 horse at 1400m-1600m in the next 12 months. Is 1200m too short these days? Possibly but mares with her quality simply stand up each run and fresh here you can expect her to sprout wings late!

BOUND TO BLUSH is the mare we are still learning a bit about and she may take the next step without surprising. She will have FUNTANTES breathing down he neck the whole way and she is a tough old horse who races well with her runs spaced and kept on the fresh side. Even with the 58kg she is able to run quick time.

Her stable mate FIRE UP FIFI exploded last preparation and goes particularly well fresh, don’t underestimate her.

6 + 8 can also be considered for first 4’s etc, but i’m sticking with the class runners under these conditions.

 

My Numbers:  1-FUNTANTES, 3-RISK AVERSION

from  2 -GAI’S CHOICE, 5 -BOUND TO BLUSH , 4- FIRE UP FIFI

 

 

 


Race 6:

Pace a concern here. I thought the mares down the bottom could run really well with a decent tempo on but they may have it against them.

BIGGLES and JET STYLE can again control the race. BIGGLES much more suited on a dry track and also meets JET STYLE 1.5kg better off at the weights. Both love E-F, so very little between them. A point worth noting is that JET STYLE’s last 2 dominant wins have been with Munce on top and he takes the reins again.

MR LIGHT BLUE has run well above previous fresh runs his last couple which is a terrific pointer to 1600m 3rd up!

PEPPERWOOD just needs some rain to be right in this. SHEZAHOTSHOT capable but may need more racing?

The two mares at the bottom TRIPLE SIX and ROCKSAN create interest but would love a decent tempo. TRIPLE SIX has raced against some nice horses in SYD and does seem a late bloomer but i like her form and 3rd up 1600m is suitable. Yet to win on a good track a slight issue, but some over unsuitable trips so it’s not the end of the world.

ROCKSAN is ready to fire after 2 runs back and she was set a task last week. I’m taking the quick back-up as a good guide and the inform Colless takes the ride. $17 is a damn good price on Tatts.

*Very little between the top 4 here. Mares seem value, but the two geldings at the top control the race.

ON TOP-   3-JET STYLE

Others: 2-BIGGLES, 10-ROCKSAN, 9- TRIPLE SIX

 

 


Race 7:

Huge field and they will go like last week’s wagers!

Matt Dunn has found the perfect race for QFIGHTER. I have watched this horse closely and 1000m sitting just off a hot tempo is spot on for him. I expect Colless to track up on the corner and put them away not long after. I thought he may be a touch more that the $3 in the big field but it is what it is.

PLAYERS CHOICE beat Saluter last start who then went on to beat the older horses last week. Must respect that formline.

HOLEY GADOLEY $17 and DISCREET $6 are the class runners and no matter the gate or trip that class will see them run well.

Many other chances but the horse that I’m really interested in is SO PARISAN- The sister to Pepper Jet. Gate 1- Cahill on, but $41 in early markets. It is a huge ask on debut, but follow any money that comes its way!!

ON TOP-     5-QFIGHTER

Hardest To Beat: 3-DISCREET, 4-PLAYERS CHOICE

Roughie: 16- SO PARISAN

 

 


Race 8:

Very smart horse here in LUCKY SOUND. He bumped into a few smart ones early in the career and didn’t have much luck. He seems to have come back bigger and better. He gets the gun run 3rd the fence from gate 1 ad drops 4kg on his ultra-impressive win running 1:09:65 at the midweek’s. It does look as though his only danger is if he gets bottled in on the corner and can’t find a way through.

MATABRAHMA was a touch unlucky last start but also gets a great run in transit for Jimmy Byrne and always a chance in a race like this.

TAIL AND ALL beat MATABRAHMA and was good in doing so last start. Should sit outside the fav and will try to hold him in the pocket and skip away.

Forgive BOYS ON TOUR, the blinkers go back on here and although he excels on the wet tracks he is capable of winning on the dry. He did run 3rd to Mental (3L) on a dry tack in a G3 over our carnival!

GUNNER KNOX, BILLY AUCASH, TUNAHOG, REQUESTED, HAITCHQUE all can fill spots in the first 4 but may need the fav to run into bad luck to roll him.


ON TOP-      13- LUCKY SOUND

Hardest To Beat: 1-BOYS ON TOUR, 15-TAIL AND ALL, 14-MATABRAHMA

 

 

 


GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 4 No.2 –KILWINNING OPTOIN

Brisbane Race 7 No.5 –QFIGHTER

Brisbane Race 8 No.13 –-LUCKY SOUND

 

**This weeks quaddie strategy- Feel all main hopes needed first leg. May be going too wide leg 2, but if something does put pressure on the mares are a chance. Didn’t want to go too wide leg 3. Very confident LUCKY SOUND can win the last and take him one out. As mentioned in the preview he will need Haitchque or Requested (whatever is leading to roll off as the others will try to pocket him. If you did want another in the last I’d take (1)- BOYS ON TOUR

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

1,2,3,4,5 —- 2,3,5,9,10 —– 3,4,5,16 —– 13  (1) if going wider.

 


‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bets:

Melbourne Race 5 No.6 KASMAHER

Melbourne Race 8 No.6 STRATCOMBE


TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 1 December 2012

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

6

$67,109

RECOGNITION STAKES

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$11,428

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 



POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

BANKSTOWN (ST)

6

$2,000

M. H. TREUER MEMORIAL

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$30,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$15,000

C3 TO C4

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