‘The Punt’ Emirates Day

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The Punt section finishes the Carnival of at Flemington.

Again a heap of races so I will be as short as possible in races we can skip over.

RAIL +8m

With the rail out and at the end of the carnival this day often suits swoopers and it’s not out of the question to see a few winners sit 3 wide with cover and swoop to win. Barriers won’t steer me off horses today, but you can judge that for yourself through the day..

Blackbookers:

November 10
CABALLO RAPIDO EAGLE FARM R7 No.5 (1400m)
SOROS WARWICK FARM R4 No.4 (1600m)

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com at time of typing.

 

 

**Im predicting a big day for Darley runners.
CITATIONS/ GALAH / GENERALIFE / AMBIDEXTER / MENTAL all have outstanding chances and a few others I haven’t mentioned aren’t without a chance either! 


Race 1:

PACE-


**Not interested in this race, happy to leave early in the day.

ON TOP-




Race 2:

PACE- Not great pace on paper and that is my only concern for GALAH.


Think GALAH gets a few things to suit. 1600m, Flemington 3rd up are all his go. Probably in ok at the weights as well. He should be able to sit around midfield and have the last crack at them.

WHY NOT an interesting runner being owned by Glenlogan and returning as a gelding. Watch for any money trails.

STRIKE THE STARS always a chance in a race like this and MUIRFIELD has a great 2nd up record, and MORANT knocking on the door.


ON TOP-    3-GALAH

 


Race 3:

PACE- Plenty of horses want to sit handy here and that should ensure a decent tempo early. I’d expect all horses to have an even chance.

 

Very hard to go past SETORIUS who has won 4 straight. He is a much improved horse and the only real concern is the 58.5kg he has to lump.

HOYLONNY has done the job for blackbook followers it’s last couple and 2000m around Flemington from a decent gate gives him every chance to win again. I think he is the best chance to roll the fav.

MOURINHO was excellent at the valley, loves the trip and should run well again. DESTINY’S KISS comes out of the same race and meets Mourinho 2kg better off.

MODULE may be the ‘value’ for tri’s.

**Hard to split a couple and not sure I will get involved unless e/w price Hoylonny is thrown up.

 

ON TOP-    4- HOYLONNY   + 3-SETORIUS

 



Race 4:

PACE-Should be a decent tempo with the big field and a few trying to cross. I’d expect the best placed horses will have cover 3rd-8th not far off the pace.

 

If they ride ESSAY RAIDER properly I think it looks a good chance, but how will they ride it?? Letting something like LIMES cross if the pace is hot would be the go. If it is not as fast as expected you’d be happy to lead over the frontrunners course (1400m Flem, possibly not today?).

Nearly every runner has a legitimate chance so too hard to go over all, but ACADEMUS and GENERALIFE from the Snowden team are two of the biggest dangers and improvers. I have landed on GENERALIFE as I think Flemington 1400m is what the horse has been crying out for and he should get an uninterrupted run from the gate. I rekon around the each way he is the way to go in a tough race.

Moody doesn’t bring up and coming horses to the carnival to embarrass himself if they are not up to it so expect a bold run LAMPEDUSA.

(BOBAN is a nutcase and ordinary betting proposition but this is a suitable race if you’re game! Haha)


ON TOP-    7-GENERALIFE  e/w

Others:    11, 15, 1 , 4.

 

 

 

Race 5:

PACE-Plenty of pace and may be case of toughest horse wins.  1,6,9,12,15 all have lightning early pace.

 

Sticking thick with BUFFERING. You know what you are going to get with him down the straight at Flem. He is tough and ready to rumble from all accounts. Can’t believe we are getting $5-6 and that’s the way I will be going.

SEA SIREN the obvious danger after an easy win 1st up in a G1.She is hard to knock but has simply had the run of the race nearly her whole career. I have no doubt she can win but this will be a completely different challenge as to what she has faced.

MENTAL- Terrific 1st up and has as much upside as any in the race.

HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME- Not much after last run.. Obviously can win if right but couldn’t on run the other day?

If we get a dead track I think TEMPLE OF BOOM is going particularly well and is a legitimate winning chance.

LONE ROCK and HALLOWELL BELLE both top shelf mares who enjoy Flemington.

*Cracking race.


ON TOP-     1-BUFFERING

Others: 5-MENTAL, 10-SEA SIREN, 11-HALLOWELL BELLE, 2-TEMPLE OF BOOM

 

 


Race 6:

PACE- Again on paper not break neck pace, but $1,000,000 on offer and a few drawn wide looking to cross says it should be genuine enough.

**The rail is usually out a fair way (hasn’t been named as I type) and many of the winners have still come wide and run. It is not often a front runners race. Hard to knock a couple up front but they have to be good to lead and win.

 

FAT AL will be up on pace and hard to run down. Has trialled well in Melb but I expected them to run last week as the horse backs up so well. Not sure why that wasn’t the plan, but who am I to question Gai?

Forgiving STREAMA (SCRATCHED)and think she just needs some luck from the wide gate to figure here. She will go back and look for cover.

SOLZHENITSYN flying for Heathcote and Brown can smoke his pipe with cover not far off the pace from gate 2. The big track will suit and look for him late!

This is far more suitable for HAPPY TRAILS than the Cox Plate.  He is one of the best milers in the  country and Oliver should get a lovely trip in transit from 10. I’d love to see him about 4 pairs back.

The Myer form can play a big part here with SECRET ADMIRER who excels on a big track over a mile, and STREAMA who will be ridden back and unleashed late. Forgive her last run and she is a massive chance here if ridden correctly.

HAPPY ZERO, FAWKNER, PLAYING GOD, AMBIDEXTER all chances in what is always one of the most competitive races of the carnival.

***Very tough. I’m personally looking for some value and a swooper.

 

ON TOP-   2-HAPPY TRAILS

Others:  4-SOLZHENITSYN, 8- SECRET ADMIRER, 6-AMBIDEXTER

 

 


Race 7:

PACE-   Not much. May be a case of best horse simply wins?

 

I hate tipping odds on pop but gee it’s hard to see SILENT ACHIEVER. Let’s put it in perspective. She had Ocean Park form last prep, won a NZ Derby, 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas. Last start she beat a couple of the fav’s in the Emirates today. She drops to inferior mares race at set weights and penalties. Funnier things have happened but I’ll be throwing the form away if she does as the stable have said this is the goal all along!

INVEST peaks 4th up, MIDNIGHT MARTINI and CRAFTY IRNA are very consistent mares and can fill the placing’s.


ON TOP-     1-SILENT ACHIEVER

 

 


Race 8:

PACE- Not a lot of pressure up front and PUISSANCE DE LUNE does get a few favours.

 

PRUSSANCE DE LUNE gets a few favours and can be hard to catch again with Boss on top. It was dominant last start and Practised ran well cup day in the Lavazza.

I’ve been spruiking DARE TO DREAM for months and he should have beat Kelinni last week who ran 4th in the Melb Cup!! OUCH. Anyway he is again a chance. Unfortunately he can’t draw a gate and misses the start so no doubt he has to go back to last again. That is the question with him. Rain would help.

SHAHWARDI and LOST IN THE MOMENT are the overseas horses with big claims. I’d lean to SHAHWARDI after his really good win in the Herbert Power and his solid track gallops with Americain.

FOLDING GEAR, VATUVEI and IRONSTEIN can all be given thoughts in exotics.

 


ON TOP-  11- PUISSANCE DE LUNE + 12- DARE TO DREAM

Next Best: 2-SHAHWARDI

 

 

                                                               RACE 9:

Pace:1,3,5,14 can control the tempo and it shouldn’t be run to hard.

 

I feel UTAH SAINTS can run well if the pace isn’t too solid. Hopefully King steers out to the middle on straightening but he could upset the fav’s if things fall into place.

Was very keen TOKUGAWA earlier in the week and he is still the top selection. I would much rather the track be dead. His record is superior on affected tracks, but this is a big drop in grade for him..

‘The Prophet’ likes UNDER THE HAT and it fits the bill swooping late. Goes very well fresh and must be included.

INSTINCTION comes off a solid win at Listed level, while TESTACANA and SNOW COVER can’t be written off in an open affair to finish the carnival.

 

 

On Top:  8-TOKUGAWA

Hardest To Beat: 3-UTAH SAINTS, 2-INSTINCTION, 11-UNDER THE HAT

 

 


GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 8 No.4 BOYS ON TOUR

Melbourne Race 2 No.3 GALAH

Melbourne Race 4 No.7 GENERALIFE

BEST EACH WAY- Sydney Race 6 No.3 LEVIOSA   + Melbourne Race 5 No.1 BUFFERING


 

MELBOURNE Quadrella numbers:

 

1,2,4,6,8,10,11 —– 1 —– 2,9,11,12 —– 2,3,8,10,11


‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:


Melbourne Race 6 No.6 AMBIDEXTER

Melbourne Race 9 No.11 UNDER THE HAT

 

 

**You can catch a chat I have with AJ on the

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/ website and hear my thoughts on a few of the best bets.

 


TATTSBET MARKET MOVERS::

EAGLE FARM

5/8 Royal Shout $17 to $13

 

WARWICK FARM

2/3 Kukri $4.0 to $3.75

5/8 Maluti $8.0 to $7.5

8/3 A Real Prince $6.0 to $5.5

 

FLEMINGTON

8/2 Shawardi $6.0 to $4.8

9/8 Tokugawa $4.2 to $3.4


*Thanks for checking in. I hope you have a good finish to the carnival! We have only got the Quad Caulfield Cup day so it will be nice if we can get what will be a decent dividend for Emirates day.