‘The Punt’ for a soggy Doomben!

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After wasting a heap of time and running on a heavy 10 last week with a lot of scratching’s I thought it best to simply pick a horse out in each race I feel can run well given the conditions and look for some value. I will give other numbers to consider but not go in depth this week.

TRACK- DOOMBEN

RAIL- TRUE

RATING- (Will be wet, but rating up Saturday, I have done this on slow/heavy)

UPDATE- Track is drying out and won’t be as bad as expected– SLOW- may get to dead

BLACKBOOKERS- (Hopefully punters got the $3 Gallinari this week)

February 02
SHEZAHOTSHOT DOOMBEN R4 No.1 (1600m) : Very hard to beat

CHIPP’N AWAY DOOMBEN R7 No.14 (1200m) : Longshot chance
AMALFI DREAMS DOOMBEN R8 No.11 (1200m) : On top rated.

 

Go to www.tatts.com for the latest markets

 

 

 

 

 

Race 1

1,2,5,6 expected to fight it out but I have better things to do then risk money here…

 

 

Brisbane Race 2 No.7 FAULTLESS DANCER  $16 (tatts)

*By no means a ‘good thing’ and do have respect for a few engaged, but does have a few things in her favour.

*Always goes ordinary fresh but fired 3rd up when pushed forward and led an an easier race.

*The wet is the key and more rain the better. There is more predicted.

*Has a 3 ½ L win on soft ground and a 0.5L 3rd to Boys On Tour on a heavy track (he is a swimmer)

* She should push forward and give a good sight at big odds.

UPDATE- Also think BEGGIN 1st up can run a bold race now track won’t be heavy. I think she is the best horse in the race and the fact they didn’t claim may be a pointer to confidence. She is a nice mare at good odds $10

1,3,4,8,11 all have claims in exotic bets.

 

 

 

Brisbane Race 3-

Another race hard to split a few. Not keen to give a steer to one. PICKABEE is the full relation to the smart Emmalene and looks packed with potential. Is 1600m on a wet track come too soon? CONGO comes off two wins in easy company, now fit but good horses weight (59kg)? ACCIDENTAL going particularly well but wet track a concern? Dann stable going well and IDAHLIA a potential knockout? SISTER EMMA looks to be wanting further but by Falvelon jumping from 12-1600m? PLUMAGE great run last start but another affected by wet? COWORTH PARK big improver for top stable?

*I’d be following the money trail here.

 

 

Brisbane Race 4 No.1 SHEZAHOTSHOT    $5.50 + $2.15 Tatts opened

*Screaming to win a race and this looks a good target on wet ground over 1600m when rock hard fit!

*First impression is it may pay to be handy to the lead early in the day but she has made ground in slow run races her past two and I think money will come for her.

*if you can get around the $5 e/w mark I’d think that’s a fair price for a horse in form that handles conditions.

 

 

Brisbane Race 5 No.3 BOYS ON TOUR  – (No.4 CASH’N’STYLE)

*Not clear cut as a few can handle conditions here.

*He has been hard to catch but last run was good. Conditions are in his favour and not sure where they go with him if he doesn’t perform here.

*Drops 5kg on last run and that’s a big plus on the heavy. Sometimes people get carried away and I wouldn’t be taking silly odds. I’d be chasing something around $4 before I was tempted..

*LUCKY LUNA the obvious one to beat, but 2,4,5,9 can put some value in first 4’s.

UPDATE SAT morning- Feel with the track suiting CASH’N’STYLE now looks the value in this race around the $6 fixed mark with Tatts. Was given no chance last start and was galloped on. I would rather take the $6 him then a shorter price the others.

 

Brisbane Race 6 No.5 JUGAHLATION

Not betting after scratching.

 

 

Brisbane Race 7 No.7 STRADON

*Nothing would surprise here,

*I think it’s STRADON or extremely wide!

*STRADON is 3rd up, rock hard fit, goes well at the track and handles conditions, good jockey, ok weight.

*ALDINI probably hardest to beat, forget last run when lame and go off the impressive trial.

 

 

Brisbane Race 8 No.11 AMALFI DREAMS

*I haven’t talked to Matt Dunn to see how much if any work his horses missed over the floods but at about the $4 mark early im keen on this mares chances.

*54kg with Jeff Lloyd on top makes her a nice bet.

*By Testa Rossa you’d think she will handle conditions but that is the only query.

*Although I’d like her 3rd in running she will probably have to push on and lead from the gate. She is more than good enough to lead and win though as pace does not look too solid.

 

 

Brisbane Race 9

*Extremely impressed with LOCK’S LEGEND! Ran 5L quicker than the Class 1 on the same day. This is a big step up but gee he will give some cheek.

*GENERAL EXHIBIT gets his chance with a hard testing 1200m on the wet. Going well and can win.

*TOM’S LUCK with 51.5kg can run a race but gate 18 is the concern…

*TEAR IT UP underrated and with 51kg is another of the main hopes.

*CALDETES always up to a race like this. He has a good gate and jockey but my concern is a month between runs and a wet track for a horse who can get up on the bridal (fingers crossed for him though)

*REGULAR and NOOGOORA BURR come off very good Magic Millions runs which is better grade than this!

 

 

Brisbane Race 10 No.10 FLYING HOME

*Really like his chances with one rule- YOU MUST BE ABLE TO MAKE GROUND. If you are able to win from back on the day this horse is the most promising and raced well against better opposition in SYD it’s last two.

*Gets in beautifully at 52kg and look for it late..

*DOLLY DOLLY the one up on pace and the hardest to beat if it backs up from last week.

 

 

GIBBO’S BEST:

Race 8 No.11 AMALFI DREAMS

Best e/w  Race 4 No.1 SHEZAHOTSHOT

 

This week’s ‘Longshot’- Race 2 No.7 FAULTLESS DANCER

 

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

1,7,12 —– 1,11 —– 2,3,15 —– 1,3,9,10                            $36 = 50%

 

 

Caulfield Quadrella

3,6,7,12 —– 4,11,12 —– 5,11,13 —– 1,6,14,16            $36=  25%

 

‘THE PROPHET’S’ BEST

Sydney Race 6 No.4 KUKRI

Brisbane Race 4 No.1 SHEZAHOTSHOT

 

TATTS Market Movers and JACKPOTS

(Posted Friday)

 

**It is a different set up this week but 10 races are hard to get through at the best of times.

Thanks for checking in and best of luck if you have a bet!

*Here’s a picture of the Murwillumbah track during the floods…

TRACK- Good?? (click on picture for bigger view)