‘The Punt’ guide- Doomben 22nd Sept

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This week it’s back to Doomben with a different rail placement.

Rail: out 6m 800-375m. And out 4m the remainder. Straight away punters will think that it will favour on pace runners and that may well be the case. However the fields are not overly big and I’d rather see how the day goes after a few races as the local tracks have been playing pretty good since we have had the fine weather.

 

(I have had some request to look at some early prices on feature double etc as we have done over past carnivals. I will look at doing an article and finding some value early next week, so keep an eye out)

Blackbookers:

September 22
MRS ONASSIS CAULFIELD R9 No.8 (1200m)
BETTER THAN READY DOOMBEN R3 No.1 (1200m)
REFLECTANCE DOOMBEN R3 No.5 (1200m)
SILVER COMMAND DOOMBEN R6 No.8 (1200m)
GYPSY PEARL DOOMBEN R7 No.14 (1200m)
DEAR DEMI RANDWICK R4 No.1 (1500m)
NORZITA  RANDWICK R4 No.6 (1500m)
LAMASERY RANDWICK R7 No.5 (2000m)
MALAVIO RANDWICK R8 No.7 (1200m)

 

Race 1:

PACE- Not much pace to mention. Horses on pace should have an advantage.

 

I won’t go into too much detail as SOMEDAY is odds-on and should simply win. For those who tuned into the RadioTab interview this week you would know I think the first two races look a good allup. SOMEDAY has improved each run which is a good sign for this race where he gets a cheap run on pace.

Those looking for value and playing tri’s may want to consider JUNGLE HEAT, GUNNER KNOX, DE DOZEN STARS and BLOW A KISS, but I can’t see them rolling the fav.

 

 

ON TOP-    7-SOMEDAY

 

Race 2:

PACE- Bugger all pace and the two fav’s should dominate from the front.

 

Just leaning TOPPING’s way here. Gollan’s horses seem to have another leg at present and this horse has been ultra-consistent since he arrived at Tony’s. Only had the one win this prep but think this is another great opportunity.

GREY ASSIGNMENT the other winning chance. He is also consistent and very tough. Rosie Myers takes the ride.

 

 

ON TOP-    2-TOPPING

Hardest To Beat: 3-GREY ASSIGNMENT

Race 3:

PACE-  We should see a tempo that will be even enough and all should have their chance to win in the small field.

 

BETTER THAN READY gets the blinkers off here and comes off a terrific win. Schweida felt the horse was underdone and felt the run a little which could be a question, but he is a damn nice youngster.

GRAYSON SQUARE won like an outstanding type beating the odds-on pop Doubtfilly that day. It’s fair to say she has since done zilch in Sydney…. However he will improve greatly from the debut experience and can win again.

REFLECTANCE ran well behind Better Than Ready last start and has to be a huge chance again from gate 2 for Cahill.

**Looks a great race to watch, but that’s what I’ll be doing… Watching.

 

 

 

Numbers:    1,5,3

Race 4:

PACE- Small little field but there could be a bit of action early. Pace shouldn’t have a massive bearing with the small field.

 

Another nice race but hard to get excited over a punt!

4,6,8,9 all push forward and should be the first four in the running. SAY NO MORE is a multiple Group 1 winner in NZ. I thought her trial was just ok, but who knows how far class will carry her? If she is on her game she should win.

If PUNCH ON was at her best she would towel these up but you couldn’t get real involved after her 1st up run.

NOROCOS grew a leg in a couple of runs over 1000m, so the 1350m has to be a slight query that she’s at her best over this trip.

CINDEROCKINRELLA has run some nice races in Sydney but had to go to Wyong to get a win last start… With Lloyd on and dropping 4.5kg she may just have enough ticks to go on top.

BEGGIN was really good behind Leisele and that’s great form for a mares race like this. This is almost the same task minus the winner.

KORANOVSKY has pleased Gollan since her last run so must be considered.

**Every horse is a live chance and I’d be wanting some type of value to be having a bet here.

 

 

ON TOP- 4-CINDEROCKINRELLA(but I wouldn’t be betting unless I got $6 or so)

Hardest To Beat: 1- SAY NO MORE

 

Race 5:

PACE- From this starting point I’d expect there to be early pace with PLAYACTION(SCR), ROCKDALE and NOBLE JESTER pushing forward. Again that should allow all horses a chance and no bias.

 

A few different formlines to try and match up. REVITALISE meets most of these far worse at the weights after his victory last start. He is still a winning chance but it will take a super run.

This looks slightly tougher than TENACIOUS JACK (SCRATCHED)beat last week, but he is in career best form looking for a hat trick.

ALVITAS is the interesting runner. He has got right out of his ground in his last couple of starts. Again from gate 10 he probably goes back at this starting point. That makes his job harder, but being 1600m he shouldn’t get too far out of his ground as the tempo should be a touch more moderate. I have him on top, but I want be pushing punters out of the way to get on.

PLAYACTION(SCRATCHED) is the tough old horse in the race and you’d love to own him. I just think he may have to use a bit of juice early? If he gets in behind the leaders early he will go close.

**Many other chances in an open race to kick the quaddie off.. Tough start**

 

 

ON TOP-  6-ALVITAS

 

Race 6:

PACE- 1,2,8,10 push forward and set a decent tempo. All get their chance again here.

 

SILVER COMMAND is the horse on the way up and that’s usually the way these races fall. He broke 1:09:00 last start and the 2nd and 3rd horses come out and ran the quinella Wednesday, while the 4th horse also won a race Wednesday. Form stacks up and think he can win again.

TRISKELE, TUNAHOG(SCRATCHED) (not sure why he was scratched from suitable race last week?) and JUGAHLATION are the next best even though a couple of them have awkward gates. The step back to 1200m suits JUGAHLATION (SCRATCHED) and he is the second top selection.

*Keen on SILVER COMMAND.

 

 

ON TOP-     8-SILVER COMMAND


Race 7:

PACE-6,13,14,15 all put pace into the race. I would think it would be preferable to take a sit just off the pace, in front of midfield.

 

 

GYPSY PEARL is the obvious one. She is flying this prep in the midweeks. She gets gate 6 for Colless down in the weights and can get the gun run 3rd or 4th. I have her on top, but this is a big step and I will throw more into this leg of the quaddie as some of the more mature horses can trouble her.

AROUND THE WORLD was too bad to be true last start and if she is on song from gate 4 she can figure.

PRETTY COMPOSED has taken slight improvement each run and I really liked her last start. EMPRESS ME is unbeaten 1st up and a real threat. I’ll admit I would have liked a touch more in her trial but too good to leave out.. BELLANTINA, FLINDERS CITY and SKY EFFORT can all be in the finish with luck in running.

**If you play quaddies it may be worth taking GYPSY PEARL one out in the first quad, and go wide in another. If she gets beaten the quaddie dividend will obviously grow considerably.

 

ON TOP-  14-GYPSY PEARL

Dangers: 1-AROUND THE WORLD, 10-PRETTY COMPOSED, 9-EMPRESS ME

 

 

Race 8:

PACE-  1010m races at Doomben usually have a stack of speed because of the short run to the first turn and horses/jockey’s don’t want to be caught wide. Gates are pretty important.

 

For the reason of important gates I have put PURE PURRFECTION on top, but I don’t necessarily think he’s a ‘good thing’. He gets the right run, the pace will set it up for him and he gets every chance. He does go up 3kg on his win.

INVENTORY is the class horse in the race and he goes well 1st-up. The problem is that there is every chance he could be posted 3 wide from the gate. The last 50m will test if that’s the case.

VAARWEL was huge 1st up last prep and I think he is a damn nice horse. If Colless can get some cover on him you can bet he looks the winner at some stage. A big plunge was landed last prep fresh and it could be the case again.

They are my main hopes, but PLATEAU GOLD, SNIPPETS SECRET and LADY MONTEL should all get good runs with cover which is important in the short course events at Doomben.

 

 

ON TOP-  6-PURE PURRFECTION

Hardest To Beat:  4-VAARWEL, 1-INVENTORY

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 6 No.8 SILVER COMMAND

Sydney Race 7 No.5 LAMASERY

 

 

 

**The Brisbane Quaddie strategy this week goes like this.

The first leg is extremely open, hence taking 5 horses. I have left out a few in the market though. Happy to take Silver Command one out in second leg and bank the pull in weights means he can run over Jugahlation. That allows us to go wider in Gypsy Pearls race as I think she has a slightly tougher task. Obviously if she wins the dividend will be a lot smaller, so many may choose to take her one out. The three in the last leg are simply the best horse. The query are the wide gates a couple have.

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

3,4,6,7,10 —– 8 —– 1,4,9,10,12,14 —– 1,4,6

 

SYDNEY Quadrella numbers:

3,5,6 —– 1,2,5,8 —– 1,5 —– 1,4,5,7,10,14,16

 

MELBOURNE Quadrella numbers:

3,5,8,13 —– 1,3,13,14 —–3,7,11,12,13,15 —– 2,4,6,8

 

 

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s:

Melbourne race 3 No.9 LANKAN RUPEE

Melbourne Race 9 No.6 SOFT SAND

 

**You can catch a quick chat I had with AJ on

http://www.helter-skelter.com.au/ . Also Ben Perkins on sport, and Peter Ellis on Melbourne racing!

 

***TATTSBETMARKET MOVERS***

DOOMBEN

1/7 Someday $1.75 to $1.7

5/6 Alvitas $4.5 to $3.8

 

ROSEHILL

6/8 All Too Hard $5.5 to $5.0

8/4 Spirit Of Boom $14.0 to $11.0

 

CAULFIELD

3/5 Maury $18.0 to $13.0

7/1 Manighar $2.6 to $2.4

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

forSaturday, 22 September 2012

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
EX MORPHETTVILLE (AR) 8 $22,484 C,G&E 0 – 75 HANDICAP
         
         

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
TF ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $20,000 CLAIMING PACE
TF GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $10,000 C4 TO C5
         

 

Thanks for checking in guys. Remember to spread the brissyraces word and send a link to a mate!

 

Good luck on the punt!

 

Gibbo