The Punt- Millions day 2019

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Well it was a cracking day last week with plenty of winners and plenty of punters touched base which is great after a weekend like that. The job now is to back it up.I do like the day to be honest and hopefully a few get a bit of luck which is needed around the GC with capacity fields.

You can get previews of all states over at www.theraceclub.com.au

Race 1:

No doubt that TERMINOLOGY has to start a short priced fav coming to a restricted maiden after running 2nd at Listed level last start, this is a massive drop in grade and she’s much better than maiden grade.

EMERGENT (SCRATCHED) was 4th on debut in BM64 grade but got back from an awkward gate. Ran the best last 400m of the race and the only one to break 12 for the last 200m. Happy to have something on him e/w as my bet in the race.

ALTAIR is in the Waller camp, finished 2nd to Diplomatico to finish last prep but was good there and not a lot of luck before that. Returns a gelding and seems a fair price to kick the day off.

Good luck to the www.boomracingthoroughbreds.com.au team with Boomtown Lass.

*Will back ALTAIR e/w or win bets him and TERMINOLOGY.

On Top: 2-ALTAIR e/w $7.50

Hardest To Beat: 11-TERMINOLOGY

****

Race 2:

Even sort of race, STANLEY PARK has drawn perfectly in gate 6, he can push forward and sit in the perfect spot (first four settling). He is consistent and has won 5 of his 10 starts. Two back he was very good in a solid CL6 at Doomben, he’s the one they have to beat.

Would have been backing MISS TOORAK FLYER from a good gate but she is very wide and that might just be a query at the end of 1200m. Love the way she is going and McEvoy may just produce a gem.

If there is a blowout it could be RECKLESS CHOICE, he’s not a 1200m horse but he improved out of sight last prep and if they over cook it up front he will be very strong late.

On Top: 3-STANLEY PARK $6

Hardest To Beat: 13-RECKLESS CHOICE $12 , 11-MISS TOORAK FLYER

*****

Race 3:

Would have made CHAPTER AND VERSE the best of the day from a decent gate but he has drawn 14. His run two back was excellent when he hit the front too soon and was run over by Cadogan. Last start he nearly ran that horse down at EF and his late splits were very good, some of the best of the day. With any luck in running he should finish over the top.

MISHANI BULLITT raced in blacktype races all last prep and was good fresh without luck fresh. Back to a restricted sales race and he’s 1/1 here at the GC.

Been following TOKORIKI LAD with an eye to this race for a long time and he is going well enough to win at $15. He’s a horse that just needs speed on but from the inside gate and lloyd riding I’d expect to see him sit a lot closer and be within striking distance, he looks the value.

On Top: 10-CHAPTER AND VERSE $5

Hardest To Beat: 15-TOKORIKI LAD $15, 4-MISHANI BULLITT $7

*****

Race 4:

They are betting around $5/$2 for TUMULUOUS and for those who follow the site you’d know I’ve been saying for the last 6 weeks this is the race he will be set for and the prep has been perfect. Gate 1 for Fradd and as much as you can make a case for a few others I’ll back him e/w.

TALLY, ENDLESS DAYS and BLACK ON GOLD might be next best.

On Top: 4-TUMULTUOUS $4.80

******

Race 5:

Hoping HOUTZEN can win for Edmonds/Aquis but the speedmap gives me enough concern to stay out of the $1.75. I’m not backing anything to beat her either, just have her posted three wide the trip. (Might still win if that happens)

******

Race 6:

Nice field of fillies and mares but find it hard to see how they beat MANICURE/INVINCIBELLA and I’m in ‘BELLAS’ court. She is a genuine G1 mare, yes she has to carry 59kg but she won this race last year and is in very good form again. The fresh run was solid where she was 4 wide most of the trip at Doomben but ran the quickest 6-400 split and 2nd fastest last split of the race. I have her three back the fence in an avg run race, if Hugh finds that spot I think she wins.

MANICURE got the job done for us around the $13 mark last start and she sits outside lead and looks to replicate what she did a fortnight ago. Cassidy off and JMAC on, she will lead for a long way.

On Top: 1-INVINCIBELLA $4

Hardest To Beat: 5-MANICURE $3

******

Race 7:

Looks a pretty skinny race here. They will go handlebars down with BOOMSARA from the wide gate but he did that last start, went fast and used a lot of petrol to get across and without a cheap section he still gave a kick to run the 2nd fastest 4-200m of the race. Even from the wide gate he will lead these for a long way, possibly all the way!

OUTBACK BARBIE has been excellent all prep and to be honest I just think she is a better horse than them. The run two back behind Zoustyle was terrific and she was clearly the best late. Last start she was back and wide and held up in the straight, it was a complete forgive but still run the quickest split 6-400m and the 200-home. JMac goes on ans she’s the one to beat.

Of the others I feel THE FIRE TRAP is a little underrated and the blinkers go on which might well spark him up. Gets a good gate and the run last start was good enough to land in the money at a decent price.

*Backing Outback Barbie.

On Top: 8-OUTBACK BARBIE $2.60

Hardest To Beat:  1-BOOMSARA

Others: 4-THE FIRE TRAP, 3-BONDI

********

Race 8: MM CLASSIC

Looks a very even edition of the 2yr old race.

A lot of speed on paper and most of it drawn wide so expecting this to be a fast run race where most get their chance but luck in running will play a big part. Been a fan of CZARSON and have had an early bet on him and see no real reason for me to jump off. He has continued to get better every time he has stepped out whether it be a race or trial he just gets better and that is the type of horse you want in these juvenile races. He will push forward and has the option to hold the front or let a couple cross him and take a sit. Reckon he has even surprised the stable and a live chance here.

EXHILARATES is another who has improved out of sight each time she steps out, her career best was last Saturday when she got the gun run and blew them away at this track over 1100m. She has drawn to probably be three wide with cover and all she has to do is handle the back up.

It’s very easy to make a case for DUBIOUS, winner of the breeders G3 on debut before having three months between runs and winning at EF with 59kg over 1000m after being posted three wide the trip. He drew the best out of all the main hopes and he should improve lengths with that run under his belt. He is the horse they all have to beat.

*Easy to make a case for many horses and it’s a very even year but they are the three I’ll be focusing on. Likely play a quinella as well.

On Top:  4-DUBIOUS $6  +  7-CZARSON $7

Next Best:  8-EXHILARATES $5.50

******

Race 9:

Well I don’t see a fast tempo and those on speed should be suited. They bet $15 about SAMBRO which I thought was a crazy price and it seems others did as well because he was $7 2hrs after opening, He sits first three here and comes off a G2 where beaten 2.2L and only carries 0.5kg more here.

ARBEITSAM is our leader, he was 2nd to Care To Think last yr in this race, has 4kg more but probably a better horse now. Recent trial was top shelf for a race like this.

I won’t be letting CADOGAN win and me lose, he has been airborne and although he might spot them a start I feel he can land midfield and he is the lightweight chance on the way up. His sectionals this prep have been outstanding..

*Hard to split the three of them to be honest, might play the quinella with them all.

On Top: 5-SAMBRO $7

Hardest To Beat: 2-ARBEITSAM $5, 11-CADOGAN, 12-SHOGUN SUN

********

GIBBOS BEST:

Race 3 No.10-CHAPTER AND VERSE $5

Race 6 No.1-INVINCIBELLA $4

*****

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

TONORIKI LAD and CADOGAN