‘The Punt’ New Years Eve

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Thanks for everybody who let me know they got the ‘Christmas Quaddie’ last week. Hopefully it was well spent over xmas. It can’t happen every week, but it’s always good when it does, and pays well like last weeks $2700.

This week we have a blackbook stable running again:

ELUSIVE IMAGE ASCOT R1 No.2
HUMMA DOOMBEN R4 No.1
DISCREET DOOMBEN R5 No.10
GRAND BUSINESS DOOMBEN R5 No.5
EMVOSS DOOMBEN R6 No.13
ROCKET TO GLORY DOOMBEN R7 No.1
LUCKY MORNA DOOMBEN R7 No.15
DIVINE CITY DOOMBEN R7 No.16
BIGGLES DOOMBEN R7 No.3
EASY RUNNING DOOMBEN R7 No.4
THEFIFTHHOLE DOOMBEN R8 No.11
TOMBOY DOOMBEN R8 No.6
SINGLE ROSEHILL R1 No.5

 

 

Let’s kick off the Doomben preview on what should be the perfect racing surface! My time is a bit limited being chrissy etc, but I will be as in depth as possible. This week seems a lot more even, and races a lot harder to work out than last week.

ALL PRICES ARE TATTSBET PRICES AT TIME OF TYPING>

Race 1: Heathcote holds a big key to this race. I’d expect EXCELLANTES (SCRATCHED)and HIDDEN KISSES to sit on pace and be very hard to beat. Both are in good form and drop down in grade for this. EXCELLANTES comes back from group and Listed races but gets the massive 59.5kg to lump which does look an issue. HIDDEN KISSES will grind it out as usual and be hard to beat. I’m actually putting a horse that I never seem to catch on top- SANTO DE LAGO. Colless takes the ride and it should get a good run midfield from gate 7. His form behind Prost and Hidden Kisses has been very promising, but the smart claim here for Bell was the clincher. He will carry 8kg less than the topweight. PLAYACTION will appreciate the step up in distance and is a major player in exotics. I’d rather PRIMED at E-F, but he can fly late. DIENEKES best of the rest.

*A good race, but I’m not that interested in getting involved here.

On Top: 7-SANTO DE LAGO

Hardest To Beat: 2-HIDDEN KISSES,  3-PRIMED, 9-PLAYACTION

 

Race 2: I try to give a rundown of each race, and although this looks a competitive race I have no interest and don’t want to tip for the sake of it! Remember you don’t have to bet every race.

*Pass.

 

Race 3: As a rule, barriers are vital at this starting point, and a couple of good ones have drawn wide! INVENTORY over the odds at $7, has great form lines and is the one to beat. However Hellyer won’t want to get caught 3 wide or he could be in some grief. I can’t see him getting across as there is a lot of pace inside him.. Mr FAVULOUS will likely ping and just keep pushing! TYCOON TATTOO and MONASHEE DANCER only know one pace and that’s flat out, so there will pace on for sure! That sets it up for NUPTSE to get a good run in transit and get all the favours. Solid Sydney form, and a good run in a hot form race last start mean she’s well worth a look. WARRIOR GIRL with 53kg after the claim will fly late, and worth remembering she ran 2nd in the Lightning 1000m over the Brissy carnival.

*If they ride Inventory conservative he’s still the one to beat. Nuptse the one to get the favours.

On Top: 9-NUPTSE + 6-INVENTORY.

 

Race 4: Tricky sort of staying race. Think it should be a fair tempo as Heathcotes smart pair HUMMA and RACING HEART probably try to sit handy from gates 10 and 11 and follow each other across. ROCKDALE  will want to hold the fence, and MAILIN G probably happy to sit outside it. What’s all that mean?? Well it’s possible HUMMA may not get the position he is after. In saying that he cleary has to be the one to beat as he is in career best form and has been crying out for the 2000m. SHEZAHOTSHOT looked disappointing on face value last week, but was 3 weeks between runs, looked the winner, peaked on her run and was beaten less than 1 ½ L. She popped up double figures on TattsBet and I will be taking some of it. RACING HEART almost a certainty of placing in these type of races, but he is lengths better with the ‘sting’ out. MALING will run well again, and MR LIGHT BLUE well worth another chance if he’s ‘one of yours’. ROYAL REIGN will be big odds and I think he can go in first fours. Will improve over the longer trip and much fitter now.

*Tough race, I’ll probably have something on Humma + Shezahotshot.

On Top: 1-HUMMA

Value Runner: 7-SHEZAHOTSHOT

Others: 2-RACING HEART,  8-MALING, 12-MR LIGHT BLUE

 

Race 5: Terrific 2yr old race, as you’d expect for a group 3. This is the major lead in to the Millions race. I have it down to 5 main chances. SIZZLING is very good, but gate 15 makes it hard here. Likely to get posted again. GRAND BUSINESS is the horse I expect to improve lengths from his debut and has barrier 3 to get the run of the race. Thought he would be much better than $12 that he has opened at, and he does meet the top two a couple of kg worse at the weights. DISCREET is outstanding and at her opening price of $4.80, that is looking far more inviting. She was outstanding winning last start, and the step to 1200m is perfect. She will be very strong late off a hot pace and I have to put her  on top at that price. DRIEFONTEIN looks the real deal for Waterhouse. Like most her horses, the filly will be on pace and take a stack of beating. NOOGOORA BURR can’t do any more than he has done and must have some chance again Worth noting that there has been good support for him with a few $1000 bets so far). SNIPZU gets back to set weights which is a big plus.

*I’d like to send the best of luck to a few owners who follow brissyraces and have horses involved here. So to the part owner’s in LADY COLOURS and ANTARCTIC DREAM.. Good luck.

On Top: 10-DISCREET

Value runner to keep safe- 5-GRAND BUSINESS

Others: 11-DRIEFONTEIN, 2-SIZZLING

 

Race 6: I tipped FILLYDELPHIA on RadioTab Thursday for a number of reasons. She is the horse I see as ‘overs’ at $6.50 + $2.25. She has won 6 of her 9 starts at Doomben, including the G3 Rough Habit. After a couple of runs at 1600m she was ready for 2000m, but Rob has freshened her up and kept some sprint in her legs with a month between runs. The 57kg is her main hurdle. CARRY ME BLUEY is simply flying and can probably park in the first five or six, that’s if he jumps with them. His main concern will be getting the luck in running when needed. KONTIKI PARK was enormous in the G2 Villiers and with 54kg and Tommy Berry on board he can be right in the finish. EMVOSS for the in-form Edmonds stable could almost be unbeaten from his 8 starts if he had a touch more luck. His last run had to be seen to be believed. He is a blackbooker of ours and will be in my quaddie. DANAGAZE, WONDERFUL LASS and the grey SHUFFLE THE CASH all have legitimate chances in a really good race.

* Good mix of proven horses and others on the up!

On Top: 2-FILLYDELPHIA e/w

Hardest To Beat: 5-CARRY ME BLUEY, 6-KONTIKI PARK, 13-EMVOSS

 

Race 7: As usual a hot 3yr old race. Pretty keen on ROCKET TO GLORY around the $9-10 mark on tatts. Nearly set a land speed record last start and did an incredible job to finish within 2 lengths of the winners. He always takes a couple of runs to come to hand and is ready to peak now at his 4th run back. Look for him to take off around the Doomben corner and play ‘catch me if you can’. EASY RUNNING again draws close Nudgee rd! He would have won his last couple with good draws and has to be respected. I hope they don’t as I’m on the top weight, but I think it would be in their interest to actually try to push forward and try to sit outside the lead. There does not seem to be as much pace in this compared to the last couple of major 3yr old races. BIGGLES is the horse who continues to get good barriers, good runs in transit and keeps winning. It’s De ja vu again here. SHOW A PRINCE improved last start as expected and will be hard to beat here as he should get a good run throughout. AQUATORIAL can sit closer and get a cushy run from (2). There are more chances such as PLAYTIME, DIVINE CITY, LUCKY MORNA and PUNCH ON, but they will all need a lot of luck in running to roll a few of these smart ones.

*Pretty keen on Rocket to Glory e/w. You know he will be in front and give a stout kick at good odds.

On Top: 1-ROCKET TO GLORY e/w

Hardest To Beat: 3-BIGGLES, 4-EASY RUNNING, 5-SHOW A PRINCE

 

Race 8: A super race to finish the quaddie off! Looks to be four or five standouts here that are well above avg.  PROST comes off a great win and always puts in. Wide gate won’t help, but the leaders should string them out a bit early which may allow him to slot in somewhere. TOMBOY looked awesome 1st up winning over an unsuitable trip. This right up her alley and look for her late. THEFIFTHHOLE again leads and tries to run them off their feet. Colless stays on and barrier 1 allows him to conserve (if possible).  THE REVELLER(SCRATCHED) has come back a treat for the Matty Dunn stable and although he’s been winning in easier company, he can measure up and will hit the line hard. If he gets some luck from the gate he can win. VIA DEL CORSO can be forgiven and should be in the first few on settling and be one of the first to throw a challenge out to the leaders on straightening. They are the major players in my eyes.

*Hard to split those runners.

On Top: 11-THEFIFTHHOLE

Hardest To Beat: 6-TOMBOY, 14-VIA DEL CORSO

 

GIBBO’S BEST BET’S

Three to each way this week.

Brisbane Race 5 no.10 DISCREET e/w

Brisbane Race 6 no.2 FILLYDELPHIA e/w

Brisbane Race 7 no. 1 ROCKET TO GLORY e/w

 

Brisbane Quadrella selections

2,5,10,11 — 25,6 — 1,3,4,5,16 — 3,6,11,14

 

‘The Prophet’s’ Best Bets’s

Sydney Race 7 no. 5 PECK

Brisbane Race 2 no. 2 AUDACIOS SPIRIT

Brisbane Race 7 no. 1 ROCKET TO GLORY

 

 

As usual the Tatts Jackpots are worth checking out. Hit www.tatts.com for more.

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 31 December 2011

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

DOOMBEN (BR)

7

$79,077

VO ROGUE PLATE

EX

DOOMBEN (BR)

8

$15,855

CLASS 6 PLATE

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$35,000

M1 ONLY

 

*bet responsibly

 

Good luck to all who have a bet. Most importantly have a safe New Years night if you go out!

 

I will try to get a mini “punt” section up for the races at the Coast Monday.

 

Gibbo.