‘The Punt’ Preview 11th FEB

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Another ‘The Punt’ section rolls along and we search for more winners. As I always say, it is just my opinion and you can do what you like with it. We can’t win every single week, but it’s nice when we do.

It’s nice to come off a couple of best bet winners and a quaddie, but  that’s in the past and it’s all about this weekend. So let’s get stuck into the selections.

We had some good interviews with Michael Lakey and Toby Edmonds this week, so back track on the site and read them if you want the insight into their important runners Saturday.

There are storms predicted at some stage, but who knows when? I have done my form on a Good-Dead track, so if the track gets rain affected you should tread warily, but I will do my best to keep you as informed as possible.

 

We have not had as many Blackbookers runners and therefore winners of late, but our stable has picked back up and a few looked well placed this weekend. Very confident they will run well.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

  MALASUN CAULFIELD R3 No.6
UNPRETENTIOUS CAULFIELD R5 No.12
HUEGILL CAULFIELD R5 No.7
BIANCON ROSE CAULFIELD R9 No.4
BINGO ROSE EAGLE FARM R5 No.16
EMPRESS ME EAGLE FARM R8 No.5

 

ALL PRICES ARE TATTSBET PRICES AT TIME OF TYPING

Race 1: Easy way to kick the day off. I won’t be betting. Don’t like the race and not comfortable tipping in it.

 

PASS

 

Race 2: Again I am more than happy to watch on. A few unknown first starters and a few coming off heavy track runs. I guess one good steer is the fact Munce is on SINUSOIDAL. It opened over the $3 mark and I’m guessing that will end up value as there is a push around for it. I will put it on top, but it is a race I don’t like.

On Top: 2-SINUSOIDAL

 

Race 3: This is yet another race I’d usually avoid, but there is one here at $8 I think will run really well. OBJECT OF VIRTUE has run well behind some smart ones lately. With gate 5 from this starting point he can get a lovely run in transit and will loom up on straightening. The drop back to 1830m is a query, but the rest of these are no stars either. I’m happy to back him e/w and leave it at that for this race. DAADS OVERTIME will improve sharply at his 3rd run back from a break. He was solid late last start and Colless is a key booking. MULE FORTY SIX is a decent raider from up north and can run well after the apprentice claims 3kg. MR TESTA for Bradley Herne can roll along up front and run a cheeky race. MURRUMBA DOWNS looks to have ability but seem like he is a bit better chaser and can even switch off if he hit the front early, but can run well. Obviously START AGAIN can win again with luck from the gate, but that is a big if as this is a killer starting point!

On Top: 5-OBJECT OF VIRTUE e/w

 

Race 4: Toby has taken the tongue tie and blinkers off ACHIEVEMENTS here. I’m sure he will lead today getting out to the 1500m on the back-up. This is a fair bit easier than last week, and in my opinion the ride by Munce was not the best. He has a great record with a couple of wins and a second from his three runs at EF. My main concern is the 59kg, but I simply have to put him on top. Hard to assess away from him. EMOTICON comes off a couple of solid runs in benchmark 90 races, has a good gate and is threatening to win one soon. CATASHEE can be forgiven for her run on the heavy last start, she has class but the distance is just a slight query. SONS OF GOD has really mixed his form and is hard to catch but looks as though the step up in trip may help. The Gold Coast horses NEWSNIGHT and SANTO DE LAGO should both be respected as they are up to this on their day.

*They have to get past Achievements.

On Top: 1-ACHIEVEMENTS

 

 

Race 5: As long as there is no rain around I am pretty keen to have a go at BINGO ROSE e/w. Although these big fields usually create a bit of pace there doesn’t seem a lot engaged in this. Many of the chances are backmarkers and have drawn wide. BINGO ROSE will sit on pace, possibly even box seat and be extremely hard to run down. Add to that the fact she is at her fourth run back and has improved each run, it adds up to her going very close! SLICE AND DICE is one who would like a drop of rain, but can run well no matter what. He will be very competitive. GENERAL PURPLE is very good on his day and has four placing’s from his five 1st up attempts. After the claim for Anthony Allen he gets in well and with luck from the gate can go in trifectas. MOUNT KOSCIOSKO, MAGIC TARTAN, JUST A PICCOLO and SAM’S TOWN can all make late ground for exotic bets.

*Pretty keen to be on Bingo Rose e/w with a good run in transit at the $6 + $2.25 on offer from www.tatts.com

On Top: 16-BINGO ROSE e/w

Next Best: 12-SLICE AND DICE, 14-MOUNT KOSCIOSKO, 2-GENERAL PURPLE

 

Race 6: Even though there are not many engaged here there should still be some pace early with GOD’S WINDOW following MONDEAN over early and both looking to sit one, two. THE SIXTIES, HEADHUNTER, ESSINGTON and TIERQUALO all keen to try to sit on the leaders hammers! I’ve mapped ESSINGTON 6th on the outside getting a great run. As long as the track is dead or better at this stage I think he will win. His trouble would be if a storm hit before the race. For that reason I will hold off a little on the quaddie and may throw a couple more in. MONDEAN was solid last start and can be hard to run down. He won’t get to lead at his pleasure as he did last start though. THE SIXTIES has come back great this time and will run well. ONE LICKETY SPLIT is worth keeping safe at good odds and MEET GEORGE can run a big race first up. He is underrated and not only goes great fresh, but he may get the sting out and pace on that will set it up for him.

*Essington on top if conditions suit. (read T.Edmonds article to find out more)

On Top: 1-ESSINGTON

Next best: 2-MEET GEORGE, 6-MONDEAN, 7-ONE LICKETY SPLIT, 5-THE SIXTIES

 

Race 7: Many punters will look for reasons that RISK AVERSION can get beaten, but this looks to pan out beautifully for her. Pace should be genuine with CARRY TO FORTUNE engaged. RISK AVERSION will only carry 0.5kg over the minimum, gets gate 1 and can sit midfield throughout. As long as Munce can give her room at the top of the straight the $4 looks juicy. CARRY TO FORTUNE comes off a great win over 900m and the 1200m is the big question as she has had 4 starts without a single placing. In saying that, she is flying and can run well. WHATEVERWHENEVER comes off a close second in Listed company and should get the sting out of the ground again. She is lengths better when the rain is around, so if a storm comes she should be given serious thought. JUST DESTINY and WIN A MILLION both come out of that race also which will be a good pointer for this. CRYSTAL DOLL is not in well at this weight scale, but she is on the upward spiral and will run ok. AL FAHER in the same boat as well. JASMINKA is just a head case and I finally put a pen through her after her latest performance until she shows some form. BIANCA JEWEL is class and for that reason is worth some thought. She is well placed under the weight scale.

*Looks a good race, and I’m sure money will come for RISK AVERSION if track stays dry.

On Top: 3-RISK AVERSION

Next Best: 6-WHATEVERWHENEVER, 2-CARRY TO FORTUNE, 12-CRYSTAL DOLL

 

 

Race 8:  Let’s hope we are alive in the quadrella and can go back-to-back! Have this as a four horse race. DOUBLE IMPACT and BLACK CASH ran the quinella on a heavy track a fortnight ago, while EMPRESS ME and KILWINNING OPTION ran a quinella the week before that. Which formline should we look at? Good question! I’m leaning slightly to the latter. EMPRESS ME was emphatic winning first up at the nice price for us and can run very well again. I have KILWINNING OPTION on top though for a couple of reasons, the first being the price $6.50 and $2.40 is an inviting e/w option, and he meets EMPRESS ME 4kg better off at the weights which is enough to swing me his way (just). DOUBLE IMPACT is highly underrated, but with 59kg he has a task ahead to roll these. The positive is gate 3 and he is in white hot form only being beaten 2.5L in the Magic Millions 3yr old race, and then winning after that! BLACK CASH has a bad gate and goes better on the wet tracks. He can win, but I’d be keener on him if the late storm hits. THAT”S KARMA, WITHDRU and MISTER CHICAGO all up and comers that can add value to first 4’s etc.

On Top: 2-KILWINNING OPTION e/w

Hardest To Beat: 5-EMPRESS ME, 1-DOUBLE IMPACT, 3-BLACK CASH

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brissy Race 5 no 16 BINGO ROSE e/w @ $6

Brissy Race 6 no 1 ESSINGTON (only if track dead or better)

Brissy Race 7 no 3 RISK AVERSION e/w @ $4.50

 

INTERSTATE:

Melbourne Race 5 no 12 UNPRETENTIOUS e/w @ $6

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: (Gone a touch wider today in Essington’s leg, simply as precaution if rain hits)

2,12,14,16 — 1,2,6,7 — 3,6 — 1,2,3,5

 

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

(we have all his selects on top in ‘The Punt’ as well! He is also pretty confident)

Brisbane Race 4 no 1 ACHIEVEMENTS

Brisbane Race 7 no 3 RISK AVERSION

Brisabne Race 8 no 2 KILWINNING OPTION

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 11 February 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

CAULFIELD (MR)

7

$79,156

RUBITON STAKES

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$30,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$10,000

CLAIMING PACE

 

 

 

 

 

**Feel  free to print off the preview as usual, or send to a friend, but remember to check in after 8.30 QLD time if possible for alterations after scratching’s..

This week we have had some Members tickets for the Gold Coast Turf Club to be used in March to be given away. JAY checked in midweek and answered the question correctly about the breeding of the horse available on the Aquanita website. It was a QLD bred horse by FEROCITY x SUN KISSES (and is a cracking type).

This weekend we will give another two tickets to the winner of our FACEBOOK comp. To be able to win you have to ‘LIKE’ brissyraces and the winner will be the person who tips the biggest priced winner on the EAGLE FARM race card. (only one selection per person). So jump on and ‘LIKE’ brissyraces and put your selection in now.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo