‘The Punt’ preview 23rd Feb

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Matt Dunn Racing

 

 

 

 

 

THE PUNT looks at Eagle Farm this week

RAIL—+7M

Rating- (Should be SLOW-HEAVY) *Will be updated 9.30am QLD time Saturday..

blackbook

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS:

February 23
CONGO EAGLE FARM R4 No.9 (1500m) – Ready to win. Wet track is a ?
THE SIXTIES EAGLE FARM R6 No.3 (1200m) –Big price, worth throwing in Tri’s etc.
WAR ENDS EAGLE FARM R6 No.6 (1200m) – Same as above, Wet ??
PURE PURRFECTION EAGLE FARM R7 No.9 (1000m) – Nice mare going places.
DIAMOND DRILLE WARWICK FARM R2 No.6 (1400m)

*Prices are Tattsbet prices at time of typing. www.tatts.com

 

 

**For those new to the site or ‘THE PUNT’ this is simply my take on the races.. You can make what you want with the info. Feel free to print out or send to a mate via e-mail or link.

We will also be posting the ‘early mail’ every Thursday where I will target horses that have or may open at inflated prices. Check in for that. (I missed it this wek to get the punt article up and tracks will be very wet)

 

*You can also hear a quick interview on www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

 

Race 1:

TIP TOP TIGER (SCR) may be too good to leave out. Happy to forgive last run but not sure if they will run on a heavy track? I respect Dan Bougoure and he has always had an opinion of this colt.

GREY COUNTESS was brilliant winning last start and can repeat here. Goes up 4kg which is a bit of a task.

FASTA THAN LIGHT has finished behind horses that have come to town and performed so should be around the money somewhere. GOING GOING GONE comes off two huge wins and is the real unknown.

*Now tip top tiger is out i can back the topweight..

On Top-     1- GREY COUNTESS

 

 

Race 2:

Track conditions will play a part. A lot of horses resuming and I wouldn’t be keen on a few 1st up on a heavy track. The more it dries out for them the better.

ALCANCIA’s effort 1st up was very good and can sit closer from gate 1 here. I was keen and thought she would be value, but the $3-$4 on offer seems a bit skinny… She is the one to beat with the run under her belt.

HOLD ME TIGHT is one resuming and I have a lot of time for it. Great in all 3 runs of first prep. If the money comes I would be respecting!

ACCIDENTAL who is rock hard fit, CAELLUM who looks to have a lot of upside and THAT’S KARMA who is very consistent are all chances in an even race.

*I like ALCANCIA but thought she may have been a bit better price….

On Top:  6- ALCANCIA

Hardest To Beat: 11- HOLD ME TIGHT, 3- CAELLUM

 

 

Race 3:

Not a lot of pace in this 1300m race which can be tricky. Although punters have had enough of STRADON (SCRATCHED)this looks his race. He was slightly held up last start and the case is there he should have won. In saying that he has won 1 and placed 7 of his 11 runs. He is a good horse and I would be surprised if he wasn’t looking the winner.

The other horse with quality is DANRHO. It does look a two horse race with this guy. He only won a maiden last start but it was the Magic Millions maiden and it usually stacks up. He beat Gallinari who has won and run well since. Track surface a query but I’d expect him to run very well for a stable who is flying!

Trifecta platers can throw in CHART and RUN WITH ME but I would be shocked if the top two mentioned didn’t fight it out.

On Top-    -   8- DANRHO

Next Best- 4- RUN WITH ME

 

 

Race 4:

A few leading chances will be up on pace- EPIC TERRA, TOKAMAK and JAM FANCY, two of those are last start winners while JAM FANCY ran 2nd last run.

Wanted to find value but have landed on LONGSHOREMAN. Hasn’t missed a place the last 6 runs and he is flying. The wetter the better. There may be a ground swell and if he touched odds-on I would watch on as that’s too short for a race like this.

PELLEGRINI simply has to be forgiven for the 1st up flop when heavily backed.

BLACK CASH is fitter for 3 runs back, comes of a win and this promises to be his best prep yet,

CONGO is the 3yr old and I like them with light weights in this grade. Not sure if he runs if the rain sticks around but he is going well.

On Top: 4- LONGSHOREMAN

Next Best: 8- BLACK CASH

 

 

Race 5:

Not convinced 1500m on a wet track is the best case scenario for DIVINE CITY but gee she is going well and I have her on top. This is easier for her dropping back to the fillies and mares grade. I simply can’t go past her.

WHITESAILS saluted last when getting to the right trip last start. She goes up 3.5kg and would rather a dry track in my opinion but can’t knock winning form. She is the hardest to beat.

BEVICO GIRL goes in quads as she is rock hard fit after a couple of 1800m runs, handles conditions and may well be a bit of value at $7.

WRITE CHEEK probably the next best if going wider.

 

On Top: 5- DIVINE CITY

Next Best:  3- WHITESAILS, 6- BEVICO GIRL, 12- WRITE CHEEK

 

 

 

Race 6:

I thought BETTER THAN READY was susceptible 1st up when beaten but I just think bad luck may be his main danger here? 2nd up record not the best? Maybe but they rode him upside down (horribly) 2nd up last prep and still went very well. Too short to bet straight out for most and I will simply be standing him out in tri’s etc.

If going outside or looking for roughies for exotics..  WHITLAM (SCRATCHED NOW) is going super in SYD, handles all conditions and looks the hardest to beat. I’M COOL can box seat and gets every chance. THE SIXTIES is a big price and looks ready to show his best under these conditions.

FUNTANTES comes off a dominant Listed win but does have to give weight to the boys here. RIVER LAD won 1st up last prep impressively and you can bet Nat McCall will have him wound up.

WAR ENDS far from the worst but win would surprise. JUGAHLATION loves the wet and is a bit of a fighter on pace.

*Great race but I think BETTER THAN READY should stamp himself as a top shelf colt here and hopefully book a ticket to the Newmarket.

 

On Top: 5- BETTER THAN READY

Others: 12- I’M COOL, 3- THE SIXTIES

Trifecta-  5—- 3,11,12 —– 1,2,3,10,11,12

 

 

Race 7:

This is the race I think I have one at value. LEEALAN is a dead set speed horse who handles all conditions. Is better for 2 runs back and last starts 6th of 15 behind Better Than Ready and Shafeeq was actually very good. I think TATTS are offering around the $9 mark and I am more than happy to be on e/w.

PURE PURRFECTION is the obvious one to beat. Gollan has a nice opinion of her and her 1st up win was good. She will be fitter for that and looks a nice horse in the making.

TIME TO PLUNDER has moved up with some decent SYD form and has the top QLD jockey engaged. Watch for whatever money comes, and if it does it would be worth following…

DEVIL’S MELODY, SILVER BULLION and HOLLYWEIRD(SCR) would not surprise and all get decent runs from their gates.

*May be the hardest leg of the quaddie.

On Top: 6- LEEALAN e/w

Hardest To Beat: 9- PURE PURRFECTION , 13- DEVIL’S MELODY

 

 

Race 8:

Hard to guess how many are scratched etc typing on a Friday..

I was taken with the win of KUCHINSKAYA when a dominant winner last start beating a decent field. She again pushes forward and is a deserving fav.

TIGER DIMEJAN could well be the best horse in the race. To win on debut and then run 4th in your 2nd race start at LISTED level is just outstanding. This really does look a nice race for her. If it is slow/heavy you just have to wonder if it may test her 1st up but quality will take her a long way.

LITA was enormous last start but she may be spotting them some start? She has a very good wet record.

As most would now know our syndicate have small shares in two horses who race here. It’s the best way to look like a mug. Unless you tip a winner people will knock you! I thought the price most places put up about CALDETES was laughable between $5-6 ? I’m not sure why that is. He has been unlucky his last couple but he has not finished off in those races and personally I want to see him run through the line before he gets too much more of my hard earned. We do have a leaning to our other horse COUNTY COMMANDS and she was up to 3 times the price. I think the $11 on Tatts is a fair price now. The wet should not worry her and she does have quality. The gate is a query and it only being her 2nd race start in her first full prep means she will only improve. In saying that she is a legitimate chance here and looks good e/w value at double figure odds.

 

On Top: 4- KUTCHINSKAYA

Hardest To Beat: 7- TIGER DIMEJAN, 16- COUNTY COMMANDS

 

Dollar

GIBBO’S BEST BETS

Best e/w  – Brisbane Race 7 No.6 LEEALAN

 

Interstate- Melbourne Race 2 No.10 NOW YOU KNOW e/w

 

This weeks ‘Longshot’ – Melbourne Race 8 No.4 SPIRIT OF BOOM @$13

(not that rough, but nice price)

 

 

Brisbane Quadrella:

3,5,6 —– 5 —– 6,9,11,13 —– 3,4,7,16,17

 

‘THE PROPHET’s’ BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 1 No.5 TIP TOP TIGER

Sydney Race 7 No.9 WHITLAM

 

TattsBet

TATTS JACKPOT AND PROMOS:

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 23 February 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

CAULFIELD (MR)

8

$120,000

OAKLEIGH PLATE

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$15,859

6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

  

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

5

$2,000

PINK BONNET FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

6

$2,000

ROD FITZPATRICK MEMORIAL FINAL

F4

MENANGLE (ST)

7

$2,000

PALEFACE ADIOS STAKES

F4

GEELONG (MT)

7

$2,000

GEELONG PACING CUP

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$30,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$15,000

C3 TO C6

 

 

**Thanks for checking in- GOOD LUCK!!!