‘The Punt’ preview 4th Feb.

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I hope everyone enjoyed the ‘One on One’ with Luke Marlow through the week. If you haven’t had a read yet, check it out. But this is all about ‘The Punt’, so let’s get to business!

The rain seems to have passed us by for most of the week and with only a shower or two expected, we can most likely get to a dead track. The rail is out 7m for the days racing, but there is no set rule on how the track will play. Often it can favour front runners, but with all the rain and races last week, I’m not sure how it will play.

It does look like a good days racing and there are a few bets throughout the day that look inviting.

We have a very good stable of Blackbook runners and I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a few winners from them.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

 BEGGIN DOOMBEN R2 No.10 – Looks great e/w value
MARKED DOOMBEN R3 No.11 –Have him on top.
GOLD SHEARS DOOMBEN R3 No.6 – Good win last time and hardest to beat.
KAHUI DOOMBEN R7 No.10 –Tough race but has claims.
ACHIEVEMENTS DOOMBEN R8 No.13 –He is the one they have to beat.

ALL PRICES QUOTED ARE TATTSBET PRICES AT TIME OF TYPING.

Race 1: Tough race to kick off and I won’t be betting. DOUBTFILLY was pretty impressive last start and again gets the sweet run in transit. Jimmy Byrne takes the ride and he should be able to peel of the leaders backs on straightening and will get every chance. OPTIONALITY will push hard and lead again. The 1110m is the hurdle. She will look the winner at the 100m, but that may be where she feels the pinch. If she gets any cheap sectionals she is some hope. Of the other horses to have raced SALUTER (scr) looks good with a debut victory (which is always a sign that the horse goes well). Browne is booked, so respect. Of the unraced horses pretty much only each of their stables know how good each is, so see what the $$ comes for. ACCIDENTAL, INFAMOUS and YOU’RE SO LUCKY are all well-bred and some support would not surprise.

*Good luck if you have a go, but it’s not for me.

On Top: 3-DOUBTFILLY

Race 2: A really even mares race. No doubt in my mind the four best horses engaged are FALVELINA, BEGGIN, RAISE UP and DEVIL’S MELODY. I think they will push forward with FALVELINA and put her in the race, but I couldn’t go with her until she shows a bit more than recent form. RAISE UP gets the gun run, doesn’t have to spend a penny in the run and for that reason will be very hard to beat. BEGGIN has not had much luck in her career, but was good enough to overcome a four wide trip and still break a class record 1st up. She is right up to this and I like her chances with a pull in the weights. Barrier 9 is her main obstacle. She opened at $10 on Tatts, but is into $8, which I think is still a nice e/w price and Bryan Dais will have her cherry ripe for this. DEVIL’S MELODY $3.40, will stalk BEGGIN in the run and you can bet your life that Colless will try to get a tow into the race on the back of BEGGIN and look to unleash out wide late. The interesting play here was Birchley deciding against running Paprika in this event as she would most likely have had an apprentice on and won as she liked. You can make up your own mind, but that seems like a hint they are keen on DEVIL’S MELODY’s chances. I think the pace comes from FALVELINA, SNIPPETS SECRET and AROUND THE WORLD who have to go hard early to get across from the awkward starting point here. All three have legitimate chances if they happen to ease mid-race, but I think they may just set it up for RAISE UP to peel off their backs, and for BEGGIN and DEVIL’S MELODY to make their runs out wide (if the track allows). I’m going to be on BEGGIN e/w and probably quinella those three runners. FELONY FLIGHT is the other one with some claims.

On Top: 10-BEGGIN e/w

Hardest To Beat: 11-DEVIL’S MELODY, 5-RAISE UP, 1-FALVELINA

 

Race 3: The days staying race and I think they have worked out how to ride MAN FROM OZ. Take him to the front and play ‘catch me if you can’. He will get every chance to do the same here as there looks to be bugger all speed around him. He will give a good sight. Really happy to be with MARKED for the Heathcote stable here. He meets GOLD SHEARS 1.5kg better off at the weights this time around and I think he can push forward and sit 3rd or 4th behind the leaders and he looks to be screaming out for the 2000m. At $5 and $2 I think he is a great e/w bet. GOLD SHEARS a danger again for sure, but will be giving a bit of a start to his main rivals. SATCH is a realistic winning chance on his best form. He would also look to sit on pace and I have him tracking MARKED over and trying to get some cover. If that’s the case he is a winning chance. BANG ON is an interesting runner being by Not A Single Doubt and getting to the 2000m, but he has team Gollan on his side and he was very strong late at Toowoomba.

On Top: MARKED e/w @ $5

Next Best: 4-MAN FROM OZ, 6-GOLD SHEARS, 3-SATCH

 

Race 4: This is another race I won’t be getting too involved in. ROCKDALE will push forward, but I’d expect ONETIMEATBANDCAMP to try and hold the fence. Interested to see if KUMALI joins that battle to find the front or if it’s happy to sit one out, one back because that looks like it would suit. PLAYACTION (scratched)is also nominated for the Sunny Coast Sunday, but if they run here they can sit 3rd the fence and it looks a terrific race for him. He comes off a dominant win at Doomben, and a very solid 2nd in the Magi Millions stayers race. Three weeks off just freshens him up for the drop back to 1640m and he is the one to beat. LUCKY LUNA takes the 3kg claim and will be hoping the speed is on early. He always takes a couple to his top and with a handful of runs under his belt he is ready to peak for this. He made a stack of ground behind Tomboy a fortnight ago and will be charging late again! EMOTICON should go in all exotic bets, but will need a good ride from gate 10 and this starting point. PREACHER BOY is the interesting runner, I’ve always had a bit of time for him but gee he mixes his form. Probably has to be taken on trust, but his last start was very impressive in slightly easier grade. Even DIAGO will improve sharply 3rd up and from the good gate.

 

On TOP: 1-LUCKY LUNA

 


Race 5: A no metrop win, special conditions handicap for fillies and mares. They all carry 58kg here.…. Long story short for those who are confused, the horses at the top should dominate at these weights. GEBLITZ has lost me a bit this prep as she seems to be a couple of lengths shy of where she has been in the past, but this is probably her best chance this time in work to pick up a win. PRODUCT simply looks the one. She has backed up already this prep and won. She carried 57.5kg on that occasion, so you know she can carry weight. McMahon could ride a broomstick to victory of late, so the $4 or $5 on offer looks damn good shopping currently. RHAPSODIC may be the value in the race from a decent barrier and getting back on a decent surface. She backs up from the Listed race last week where she got bogged, but she has also backed up this prep with a super 2nd to Magic Tartan at the Gold Coast. They look to be the main hopes, but for those going wide in first 4’s etc COUNT YOUR FINGERS, OUR HUSSEY, LADY AGULHAS and SAVAGE RIVER are all worth some thought.

*Pretty keen on Product, and think the money will come for her.

On Top: 2-PRODUCT

Hardest to beat: 7-RHAPSODIC, 1-GEBLITZ

 

Race 6: It’s a fair starting point here, but I see there being a fair clip early with RUSTY HUNTER and MY ELIXA (scr)shooting across from wide gates, and IGLES STAR and RED STORY inside them all trying to get to the front. This sets up beautifully for THE RINGMASTER who from gate 6 for the in-form Hammersley gets a cushy run around fifth, just off the early pace. He likes the Doomben track and I find it hard to see him getting beaten. The $3.60 looks great if you agree with me, as I’m sure he will start shorter on the day. SKATER DUDE gets out to the 1350m for the first time but it shouldn’t be an issue and $14 on Tatts is probably ‘overs’. PEGUNNY CAT has an awkward gate (14) but gets in ok at the weights and is in decent form for a race like this. IGLES STAR is a costly type, but again will be in the market and if you are the forgiving type you could make a case for him. North QLD’ers RED STORY, BEAUTIFUL TIMING and RUSTY HUNTER all go well but it is hard to line the form up.

*Keen on THE RINGMASTER.

On Top: 2-THE RINGMASTER

Next Best: 15-SKATER DUDE, 8-IGLES STAR, 9-PEGUNNY CAT

 

Race 7: EMMALENE is the best horse in the race, no doubt about it. She could blow them away and I would not be the least bit surprised. She does have a few things that will make it hard for her here. Gate 13 from this starting point is one of them and she may be giving away a big start. There is a heap of pace engaged with 2,3,5,6,9,10,13 and 15 all looking to push forward! For that reason I have come up with BELLE D’AMOUR at around $5.50. She showed a lot of promise last winter and second up here, back to 3yr old company and with the pace on, I think she will run pretty well. If JUDY’S JOY gets a run she will trouble these. She ran really well behind PRODUCT who I like earlier in the day and she is a real improving type. LEEALAN will be one of the leaders and is a real speed machine. He will be tiring late, but may have enough to be right in the finish. In a race that I’ll probably just watch on MR FAVULOUS and KAHUI also have good chances if they can get some luck from the gates.

*Tricky type of race and happy to watch without betting!

On Top: 7-BELLE D’AMOUR

Hardest To Beat: 1-EMMALENE

 

 

Race 8: This is actually a little harder to map then people think. ANYWAYS and FANGLES push hard early to use their good gates. THE SIXTIES, ACHEIVEMENTS and PATTIES MATE also push on but their task is made tougher from awkward barriers. With the 4kg weight drop from his last run I have gone for ACHIEVEMENTS. He has not carried this weight in a long time and although it is tougher grade I think it will make a big difference. THE SIXTIES last start win was very good and inclined to think he has come back as good as ever. You’d probably rather him at EF and to not have to work so hard from the gate, but he can win. PAPRIKA is always a chance in these races and the fact Birchley chose this race instead of race 2 means the horse must be going well, but I’m just not sure where she ends up in the run. The ‘smokey’ in my eyes is MEET GEORGE! (SCRATCHED) He flys fresh and gets the blinkers on here. Unfortunately the gate means he will get back, but he should be given serious thought in quaddies because he will fly late.. REILLY BLUE probably the best of the rest. After hearing B. Baldwin today you would be inclined to throw in HAVATRYSt as they feel he had a problem and they have got to the bottom of it..

On Top: 13-ACHIEVEMENTS

Hardest To Beat:  9-THE SIXTIES, 3-PAPRIKA, 11-HAVATRYST

 

Race 9: Last leg of the quad and let’s hope we are alive! I think the market has it about right. I can understand punters going wide in the last as there are some nice horses engaged, but I will roll with four that stand out to me. THEFIFTHHOLE kept running at 1400m and kept feeling the pinch. I’ve been waiting for him to freshen up for a 1200m race, but this 1110m will have to do! Unfortunately there are a few who may pester him a bit in front, but he is still on top for me. Cassidy won well on him a few runs ago and he has a great record over the 1110m. ‘The Prophet’ likes HAMPDEN and for good reasons. Although on breeding you’d expect him to get over ground, he does go well fresh and with the hot tempo he will get every chance to run them down. At $7 he will run well for his new stable and I’d follow any money trails that lead to him. KNOX is the other one. I haven’t had a wrap on him like most but am starting to warm to him. Extremely well-bred and the 1110m should suit well. He is the one that gets the gun run and will pop out at the 300m and charge late. Even with the weight BLUE JUPITER is the one that may represent the value for quads at $15 on www.tatts.com He is the old stager with the runs on the board and has run really well last two times he has stepped out 1st up.Outside of them if you go wider possibly  ROCK HOME LATE, CYCLONE BRAD and DEVINARDI (SCR)can have cases made for them.

On Top: 10-THEFIFTHHOLE

Hardest To Beat: 11-HAMPDEN, 2-BLUE JUPITER, 12-KNOX

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

(Think it’s a pretty good days racing and do like these four today)

 

Melbourne Race 6 no. 1 BEL SPRINTER

Brisbane Race 6 no. 3 THE RINGMASTER

Brisbane Race 3 no. 11 MARKED e/w

Brisbane Race 5 no. 2 PRODUCT e/w

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: (Shortish this week, but still may pay well)

2 —-  1,4,5,7 —- 3,9,11,13 —- 2,10,11,12

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Both his tips are well into the e/w price range again.

Brisbane Race 9 no. 11 HAMPDEN

Melbourne Race 8 no.15 WEALTHY LAD

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 4 February 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

DOOMBEN (BR)

8

$50,545

OPEN HANDICAP

A2

DOOMBEN (BR)

9

$6,581

CLASS 6 PLATE

TT

DOOMBEN (BR)

 

$5,527

RACES 7, 8, 9

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

 

$25,524

RACES 2, 3, 4, 5

QD

MELTON (MT)

 

$5,000

RACES 5, 6, 7, 8

*bet responsibly

 

*anyone who likes to have a chat on racing forums, Brad Davidson and the guys at The Gold Coast Bulletin have a good one called I LOVE A PUNT, and is worth a look at some stage. http://forums.goldcoast.com.au/iloveapunt/forum/

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember if you are on FACEBOOK- ‘like’ brissyraces so you don’t miss out on the latest articles, and tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

Feel free to print the preview out as usual, and during next week the people who check in midweek will have the chance to win a couple of Members tickets to the Gold Coast races for March.

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo