“The Punt’ preview April 13th

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We head to DOOMBEN Saturday and it should be soggy with rain predicted on the day!!

NOTE:  UPDATE 5:00 Friday. Those who read the PROPHETS tips early Friday, please note the first selection was meant to be LANKAN RUPEE

Rail: 4.5 metres Entire Course.
Weather: Partly Cloudy

 

You can also hear an interview on

www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

 

Blackbookers:blackbook

April 10
IN BANGKOK EAGLE FARM R6 No.9 (1600m) :
April 13
MARGINS DOOMBEN R3 No.5 (1600m) :
TAIL AND ALL DOOMBEN R6 No.3 (1350m) :
SIR KNOX DOOMBEN R7 No.12 (1350m) :
BLACK MAGIC DOOMBEN R8 No.14 (1200m) :
TOYDINI RANDWICK R2 No.2 (1600m) :
ARINOSA RANDWICK R8 No.5 (1200m):

topline

 

*Prices are www.tatts.com at time of typing.

*let me kick off bay saying the Doomben card looks like a ‘danger’ meeting on what will probably be a heavy track. Personally there will be 3 or 4 horses I’d consider a wager on, otherwise I’d be saving your money for SYD or keeping some for the upcoming Brisbane carnival if you’re a QLD punter.

 

 

 

 

Race 1:

Very little form to go off, especially for a wet track. Safer to leave this alone in my mind.

 

 

Race 2:

Again this looks a tough assignment! DENWOOD down in the weights is due to break his run of placings but I wouldn’t want a genuine heavy surface for him. If the track is suitable and he is a decent price he would be worth some thought. (He has opened around $9 which I guess is worth some thought)

 

 

Race 3:

A really good class 6 here. The Hawkes stable brings MESSENE up with a great record. 7 starts for 4 wins and 2 placings. Really well bred, wet should not worry and should start fav.

MARGINS was extremely impressive and I have always had a big opinion of him. He can take another step here and again the track should suit. He will be hitting the line hard late am I hoping he doesn’t spot them too big of a start.

There looks to be a bit of pace early and EPIC TERRA who is one of the most consistent horses in QLD will again be up there. BLACK CASH may push forward from the bad gate but drops 4.5kg off his last very good run.

EPIC, SKATING AWAY, DIENEKES and THAT’S KARMA all have chances is a really good betting race!

 

On Top: 5- MARGINS

Others:  8,2,9,10

 

 

Race 4:

ALCANCIA and  MARCULOO look to be the main two and the wet track will suit. DOOMBEN can play into frontrunners hands, especially early in the day. ALCANCIA will be somewhere in the first 4-5 and for that reason and the fact she only has 51kg after the claim on the heavy track make her a clear top pick. $3.50 looks a good price in a shallow race.

MARCULOO goes well 2nd up and has to be respected. She will get back and need luck from an inside gate.

Respect any money for PRETTY GULLY, currently $13.

 

On Top: 9- ALCANCIA

 

 

 

Race 5:

Don’t like the race at all and will not be betting.

UTAH SAINTS $11 comes up from Melb and 1st up was only beaten 3L by Loveyamadly, Go The Knuckle etc. That’s good enough here to be more than competitive and the wet shouldn’t worry.

I have MEET GEORGE on top, mainly because the $17 looks over the odds and he is a good fresh horse. Comes off a long break and Gets a wet track 1st up, so they are queries.

EXCELLANTES would just win on a dry track but he is usually not effective when it gets very wet.

BORDER REBEL goes back to 1110m and gets the wet track. Should be fitter for two runs back.

ROCKER has only had the 10 starts and may be a real improver this prep. MR ARMSTRONG handles conditions and is a fresh specialist.

*Good luck here!

 

On Top: 5- MEET GEORGE

Others:    9, 10,1,2,3

 

 

 

Race 6:

TAIL AND ALL had the tempo  to suit first up but did the job and finished off well. It is an underrated horse and has been super consistent. It will again run well here and start a deserved fav.

ASSIMILATOR has won 6/6 but has to be some risk 1st time on a wet track and more tempo here. It can win, don’t get me wrong, but the $6 is the right price, I wouldn’t take much shorter.

DELGADO PILLI may just need the run? If he is wound up you may find a money trail on the day so respect that if it happens.

BYMONASHEE will handle conditions and always runs well here. Gate 2 gets him the run of the race.

HEATER is the horse at value for trifecta’s. $15 in early markets may be a bit generous for an improving type.

 

On Top: 3- TAIL AND ALL

Others:  13-HEATER,  4- DELGADO PILLI, 5- BYMONASHEE

 

 

Race 7:

Behind the staying races these 3yr old events are nearly impossible!

NINTH LEGION gets all the favours and will be up on pace. He comes off a Group 2 placing and is very well placed at the set weights. Sure he is the horse to beat and may well win and go on to far better things, but $2.10 is too short for me with the question of a wet track..

I’m convinced we were on the right horse a couple of weeks ago when SIR KNOX had everything go wrong and still only got beaten a small margin. He is $12 here and I am more than willing to give him another chance at that price. The drop in distance will be offset by the wet track and he will be strong late.

I’m sure WRITTEN ABOVE ALL is better than its last run and I think B.Stewart will suit this horse.

ACCIDENTAL and NARCISSUS are consistent types who will again be around the money.

CARMORA gets through the mud and hard to knock on its unbeaten run.

 

On Top- 12- SIR KNOX e/w

Hardest To Beat: 1- NINTH LEGION

 

Matt Dunn Racing

 

 

Race 8:

This is a fair dinkum doozy to finish. The key is how the track is playing… Can you make ground out wide? Do you have to be on the outside? My gut feeling is it may pay to be just behind the pace, I don’t think you will want to be giving away a big start.

Bad gates to DOUBLE IMPACT and DOUBTFILLY while the other key chances HIDDEN KISSES, ARADO, TIME TO PLUNDER and BLACK MAGIC have all drawn well. HIDDEN KISSES $13 has the weight to carry but has run in and won better races than this. Cahill is on her and has got off TIME TO PLUNDER?

TIME TO PLUNDER is flying and I think he is probably the horse to beat. He should be able to sit midfield from the gate and be very strong late again.

FACE OFF(SCRATCHED) flies fresh and gets in with 53.5kg for Heathcote he is the smoky at $13. Respect any money trails with no trials. It ran 2nd on a heavy track 1st up last prep.

BLACK MAGIC, DOUBTFILLY and ARADO will be coming hard late and are a must for exotics and quads.

Tough way to finish the day but plenty of value if you can find the right one!

*I admit the barrier is a slight concern but I feel I have to look for some value here.

 

On Top:  9- TIME TO PLUNDER

Others:   1-DOUBLE IMPACT, 5- DOUBTFILLY, 14- BLACK MAGIC

Dollar

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS

Brisbane Race 3 No.5 MARGINS

Best Interstate- Melbourne Race 2 No.15 CATERED $13

 

This weeks ‘Longshot’ – Race 7 No.12 SIR KNOX

(only $12 now but with heavy support for a few others in the race I’d expect a better price on the day…hopefully)

 

BRISBANE QUADDIE

*You will have to check in after 9am Sat as there will be a heap of scratchings..

 

 

SYDNEY quaddie

4,13,17,18 —– 1 —– 4,5,6,11 —– 9                       $16 for 100%

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS BEST BETS’

Melbourne Race 1 No.1 LANKAN RUPEE

Melbourne Race 8 No.6 LAKE SENTENTIA $8.50

 

 

TATTS MARKET MOVERSTattsBet

DOOMBEN

3/4 Borehole $35.0/$31.0

 

ROSEHILL

1/6 Il Cavallo $2.0/$1.95

3/3 Unimpeachable $4.4/$4.0

4/12 Hula Lua $21/$16

 

FLEMINGTON   

1/1 Lankan Rupee $9.0/$7.5

4/3 Shoreham $6.5/$5.5