‘The Punt’ preview -Doomben Cup day

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We are back at Doomben on what looks as though it could be the perfect racing surface! The fields are simply outstanding and it looks an even day with capacity fields. The big fields from awkward starting points can throw up some rough results, so don’t be surprised if that’s the case again. At least we have a good track to work with, and these races will be great form references for the upcoming Group 1 races.

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

SOLZHENITSYN  DOOMBEN R3 No.6 –On the back-up and well placed
RISK AVERSION DOOMBEN R4 No.7 –Toughest task to date, but is up to it
MISS ARTISTIC  DOOMBEN R5 No.4 –On top selection and e/w price
PUNCH ON DOOMBEN R6 No.15 –Even race and must go in exotics
HOT LOVER FLEMINGTON R3 No.2 –A horse on the up and can win

 

*All prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. To get to the Tattsbet site simply click on their banner on the right hand side of the page.

 

Race 1: There is a bit of pace early here but nothing silly. It should give all horses their chance. A few of the main chances have drawn wide (SKATING ON ICE 14, PROST 15) and you’d expect them to go back and that makes the task harder for them. I’ve come up with AUDACIOUS SPIRIT here. He was beaten 1st up at around $1.50 and on that run couldn’t win. However he drops 2kg and gets a nice run on pace. He is a horse who is usually explosive 1st up and near unbeatable. It is only my assumption, but I believe he didn’t trial going into this prep (he usually does) and they may have been using that race as a hit out to improve on. He will improve and he’s going to be very hard to beat. FALINO has to be forgiven for his two runs back and has been freshened since. He was 1st up on a heavy track which didn’t suit and may have flattened him. He then went to the cushion in Toowoomba and like all that form, just throw it in the bin! He will improve lengths here. They are the two I see as the best suited here, but if you are looking to go wider I would look at the three quality horses that have to go back and will be flying late. They are PROST, SKATING ON ICE and CAPTAIN CLAYTON.

On Top: 4-AUDACIOUS SPIRIT

Hardest To Beat: 1-FALINO, 12-CAPTAIN CLAYTON, 2-PROST

 

Race 2: Not a race I’m too keen on! I think SIZZLING will win, but I’m not one to launch in at $1.75… ACADEMUS has a few wraps and deservedly so, he will run well. NOOGOORA BURR and DISCREET are very classy locals who will be around the money. Blinkers went on last week and NOOGOORA BURR improved out of site. DISCREET was set an impossible task 1st up and don’t be surprised if she goes very close. DANCES ON STARS and SOOKIE may fall into places.

**AS I said, not keen here, happy to watch on

On Top: 1-SIZZLING

 

Race 3: Little pace on paper and that could make this a bit tricky. Possibly GATHERING may push forward with GINGA DUDE. They can get a good lead and even though GINGA DUDE has had a setback he will be highly competitive with a cheap run. SOLZHENITSYN is on the back up and Rodd takes the ride. No doubt he will try to jump and sit in the first few again here. That is very suitable and a win would not surprise. FILLYDELPHIA is over the odds and she can box seat. She is as honest as you can get and seems to be a nice price with TattsBet at $7.50. MISS KEEPSAKE has been racing in harder opposition and the WFA scale probably suits her more than most. St GERMAINE is $19 and John Sargent told us through the week she’s going good (check article out for more). She is over the odds. DIVORCES has come back well and will also run a nice race. She is suited under this scale in a race like this.

**Good race, but again I’m happy to watch on. May have small bet on Fillydelphia, but there are better betting propositions on the card.

On Top: 8-FILLYDELPHIA

 

Race 4: Moderate tempo at best with only SOPHIES SPIRIT and BOUND TO BLUSH (SCR) likely to push forward. BOUND TO BLUSH was narrowly beaten by Angel Of Mercy two starts ago in the Listed James Carr at Randwick which is great form. SOPHIES SPIRIT was pretty good in the Listed Darley Crown and she always takes a couple of runs to come to hand. I expect her to cause a few headaches here. WEALTH PRINCESS returned after a couple of years off with a super run in the Wangoom over the carnival at the ‘bool’. She will be improved off that run, she is unbeaten 2nd up and she is a super mare on her day!  ALLTHERIGHTMOVES gets back on top of the ground and she is ready to show what she is made of. I think it is now known she does not like the heavy tracks and is lengths better when dry. She gets a good run and at $9 is the one I think looks to be value. HIDDEN KISSES simply flies fresh and has trialled very well leading into this. Her last prep consisted of 6 runs with 2 wins and three 2nds. ‘Risky’ RISK AVERSION is one of the site favourites and stepping to the 1350 is something she has been crying out for. This race has been on the radar for the team and although she will be giving away a little start she will rattle late! DUAL CHAMBER is massive odds and she will be in my first 4’s as she is going far better than it looks on paper.

*I feel this is probably the best race on the card and will be a cracker! Plenty of chances and you’d love to own any of these fillies/mares.

NOTE***** After the scratching of Bound To Blush, SOIES SPIRIT gets a good lead and is now a real live chance.

On Top: 10-ALLTHERIGHTMOVES e/w

Hardest To Beat: 3-WEALTH PRINCESS, 4-SOPHIES SPIRIT, 7-RISK AVERSION, 5-DUAL CHAMBER

 

Race 5: The traditional lead up to the oaks-The Roses 2000m. A capacity field from a tricky starting point and that will affect the outcome. There should be a decent tempo here with some runners drawing wide trying to clear the field before the first corner. I think all those things play into MISS ARTISTIC’s hands. She can sit just off the pace a few pairs back, and getting back on top of the ground she will take a stack of beating! She’s around the $5 mark and I think that looks a pretty good e/w bet as she is the one they have to beat. DOWAGER QUEEN improved last run and she may be the big improver after making the trip over. On her best form she is more than capable of beating these. Gate 7 gets her a great trip in transit and Schofield may even try to track MISS ARTISTIC into the race. ANGEL OF MERCY backs up from a good win against the older horses, but has gate 19 to overcome. QUINTESSENTIAL also has a gate that makes it tricky. She will have to give away a big start here. PRETTY PINS was lame after her last run and should be forgiven. ROCKSAN gets a good surface and a good gate which makes her worth plenty of thought for quaddies at around $41. ANGELUS was impressive last start even if it was on the cushion. She may well relish the 2000m and could surprise a few. INVEST and SCORPIO QUEEN look the best of the rest in an open race once you work away from the top couple in the market.

*Great lead up to the oaks and I expect Miss Artistic to show her best.

On Top: 4-MISS ARTISTIC

Hardest To Beat: 1-DOWAGER QUEEN, 10-ANGELUS

Roughie: 13-ROCKSAN

 

Race 6: I have MENTAL on top but he will have to be every bit as good as we think he is to beat these. He comes off a devastating win at Hawkesbury and if he wins this he could look at a Stradbroke start. He will sit about 3 pairs back and be hard to hold out. EASY RUNNING has to be forgiven for the heavy track run and if he gets back to his best he is up to this. He is drawn to get the run of the race for Browne and will look the winner at some stage. MORNING CAPTAIN has come back a treat this time in work and his run at the coast was outstanding after Munce circled the field very wide a long way from home. You’d be mad to leave him out of exotics. AMAH ROCK has a tricky gate but if Noonan can get him in somewhere he will be in the finish. I thought EXTRACEED was good at the coast, but he also has a bad gate to contend with. PUNCH ON and EMMALENE both made a lot of ground 1st up and were terrific pointers to this. Both are more than capable on their day, but the difference may be the gates PUNCH ON has(8), while EMMALENE has (16). BIGGLES $21, and SHOW A PRINCE could improve sharply. Neither were suited on the heavy 1st up but both ran well. If your going wide I’d be inclined to include them.

*If you like Mental it’s clear cut, otherwise there is value everywhere.

On Top: 6-MENTAL

Hardest To Beat: 1-EASY RUNNING, 5-MORNING CAPTAIN, 3-BIGGLES

Race 7: The Doomben Cup. I’m not one to go overboard with stats from years ago as every race should be looked at on current form. However Sarrera and Metal Bender both come off the Q-E form in Sydney to win this race within the last 4 years, and My Kingdom Of Fife went down narrowly last year. The Sydney WFA form is simply superior. The only query you can have is if the horses that have gone through a Sydney campaign have gone over the top and come to the end of their prep. The case in point is MANIGHAR and to my eye this looks tailor made for the in-form grey. His run in the Queen Elizabeth was very good, in fact I thought  it was one of his best this time in (including his G1 wins) He got trapped back in a slow run race and although he couldn’t get near More Joyous, he still got out and beat the rest easily. He is very adaptable and he’s the best horse in the race and therefore goes on top. SHEZ SINSATIONAL is a very classy kiwi who won the traditional lead up race (The Hollindale 1800m) at the gold coast. That was run on a very wet track and she will be better on top of the ground. She should settle around midfield and she will attack the line. MAWINGO looked very good in his debut Aussie win and has to be forgiven for his defeat on the unsuitable bog track at the Gold Coast. In saying that he still ran very well and he will settle in front of his main rivals here. FORETELLER will be giving them a start and would rather a wet track but he is an underrated horse who will look to get a tow into the race around the 600m and get to the outside to let down. He does look like one of the best knockout chances around the $13 mark. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN is Moody’s other runner and she was back to her best last start. All the indications are the stable are pleased with her and you can expect her to be around the money. SCENIC SHOT is getting on inyears but on current form he can be considered for first 4’s etc.

*The toppy looks the one. Not usually looking for fav’s, but market looks to have this correct.

On Top: 1-MANIGHAR

Hardest To Beat: 9-MAWINGO, 11-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 10-SHEZ SINSATIONAL

**There is a $105,000 jackpot trifecta pool in the Doomben Cup.

 

Race 8: A really good race to finish the day off and it will be wide in the quaddie. Even though there is a good run to the first turn and it’s a 1350m race, there is speed to burn through TIGER TEES, LISTEN SON, CELTIC DANCER, DUSTY STAR and BEETHOG who are all natural leaders and would want to find the front. TIGER TEES comes off a Listed Syd win where he beat Pinwheel. With all the pace up front I’m inclined to find one with a cheap run who can finish over the top of them. At the prices I think CARRY ME BLUEY e/w at around the $6 mark with Tatts is worth thought. His 1st up run was a bottler, and his effort at the GC was very good when he was back in the worst part of the track. He’s 3rd up over a suitable trip and he will be one of the swoopers looking to roll them late. The key is for Munce to just give him the cheapest run possible with cover and get a track into the race instead of making him circle the whole field. FREE WHEELING is the one who ticks every box, he spaced them in the Hawkesbury Guineas winning by 4L. He looked as though he may be back to his best and if he can replicate that run he is right in this. He is a 3 yr old taking on the older horses which is a task, but he drops 4.5kg on that run. He can camp 5th or 6th with a lovely smother and I’m happy to have him on top. SMOKIN’ JOEY is flying at present and will get this run to suit. He has a bad gate, I don’t think Doomben will suit him, but he is going so well he still goes in Quaddies. His goal is the Straddy and EF -1400m will be his go. Many more chances, but the best roughie is BELLTONE at $16. He is 1st up but he will like the speed on and he has always promised a lot and this may be the prep he shows how good he is.

On Top: 11- FREE WHEELING

Hardest To Beat: 10-CARRY ME BLUEY, 2-TIGER TEES, 1-SMOKIN JOEY

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 1 No 4 AUDACIOUS SPIRIT (has drifted in market Saturday morning, but worth seeing if late $ comes)

Brisbane Race 7 No 1 MANIGHAR

 Melbourne Race 3 No 2 HOT LOVER


BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

1,4,10,13  —- 1,3,5,6  —-  1  —- 1,2,3,10,11,15

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

 

Brisbane Race 5 no 2 INVEST

Brisbane Race 8 No 2 TIGER TEES

 

 

**Here are the TATTSBET MARKET MOVERS Friday arfternoon

DOOMBEN

1/4 Audacious Spirit $3.2 to $3.0

2/2 Noogoora Burr $8.0 to $7.0

4/3 Wealth Princess $3.2 to $2.8

5/13 Rocksan $26.0 to $21.0

6/4 Double Impact $14.0 to $11.0

7/1 Manighar $2.6 to $2.4

7/9 Mawingo $9.0 to $8.0

8/15 Belltone $17.0 to $16.0

 

SCONE

1/16 Royal Jester $9.0 to $7.0

6/8 Potions $14.0 to $10.0

 

FLEMINGTON

5/5 Spacecraft $67.0 to $41.0

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 19 May 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

DOOMBEN (BR)

7

$105,156

DOOMBEN CUP

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$16,057

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

4

$2,000

NURSERY FINAL (3YO C&G)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

6

$2,000

NURSERY FINAL (3YO FILLIES)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

7

$2,000

NURSERY FINAL (2YO FILLIES)

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

8

$2,000

NURSERY FINAL (2YO C&G)

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$35,000

M2 TO M3

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$15,000

C2 TO C4

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

WA DERBY FINAL

 

I hope you enjoyed this week’s ‘The Punt’ guide! We had some great interviews through the week, so if you missed them, go through the archives for a catch up with the Heathcote and Sargent stables..

 

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo