‘The Punt’ preview – Eagle Farm

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NOW FINAL  8:10am

Welcome to Brissyraces weekend on ‘The Punt’. EAGLE FARM is the track and a couple of important gear changes may steer us into a couple of winners!

*As usual this is simply my view of the weekend races, feel free to do what you want with the info, there is no cost, no betting strategies so feel free to print off or send to racing friends!blackbook

*Prices are www.tatts.com prices at time of typing*

***If you are on this preview Saturday try clicking on this link to hear my chat with AJ www.helter-skelter.com.au

 

BLACKBOOK Runners: 8 of our last 11 have won so the heat is on! Probably not as strong of a lineup today but these horses are in form.

FRIDAY,   28 FEBRUARY 2014
Miss   Middleton –   Moonee Valley R2 No.2 (1600m):
SATURDAY,   1 MARCH 2014
Harada   Bay –   Eagle Farm R3 No.3 (1600m):  Keen.
Pasquinel – Eagle Farm R3   No.4 (1600m): Danger to horse above.
Ellawisdom – Eagle Farm R3   No.6 (1600m):
French   Lesson –   Eagle Farm R5 No.1 (1400m): Ready to win
Allknight   Saint –   Eagle Farm R5 No.10 (1400m): Race set up nice 3rd up.
Mishani   Warrior –   Eagle Farm R7 No.2 (1600m): Short enough but live chance.
Miss   Middleton –   Flemington R4 No.9 (1100m): Tough race, not sure if she runs here or Friday night?

 

 

 

Race 1:

Although the 2 yr old races have been ok to us late I am steering clear this week. Too many unknowns.

pineapple

 

Race 2:

Again not a good race! 7 acceptors, please!

SENTA DESERT should win but I’m not prepared to get on so I am not steering you into the short quote.

 

Race 3:

Here we go, love this race.

Hard to be super confident in such an even race but I feel HARADA BAY has been set up for this and blinkers go on. Very clever stable with have him ready to fire. The form from last run has been franked and I expect him to run very well! Our best bets have been saluting each week and he is the first today.

Two obvious danger is PASQUINEL who I fear most. He come off a slow pace and ran ok last time, but the win before that was very good.

Outside of them, ELLAWISDOM, RENEWED VITALITY, ARCTIC and HEARTFELT QUEST will all have support and this is a great betting affair.

On Top:  3- HARADA BAY

 

 

 

Race 4:

Could be a bit of a sucker race. Has me bluffed a bit. The obvious horse is SEEKING MORE and his last win was very tough and solid. He is a good horse but no star and I don’t want to be backing him at a short quote.

*No great pace unless Munce and El-Issa do something silly up front.

Depending on prices I may have something small on ROCKET TO GLORY who can jump and lead here from the good gate. El-issa is very handy on front runners and it may be the value. This is not your typical speed on speed 1000m race, a few will be looking for longer and unless Munce on EASY RUNNING want to pour the pressure on they can have the lead to themselves.

*Yet another race that doesn’t create a lot of interest.

Value:  3- ROCKET TO GLORY

MaluaRacing...

 

Race 5:

I’ve been very keen to follow FRENCH LESSON and still think he will be very competitive even with 59kg. Gate 3 is a big positive as he will not have to spend a penny from the gates and Byrne should get a lovely run.

STARGRILL BOY also has the big weight but is going as well as he ever has. Finished alongside FRENCH LESSON last time although the toppy probably had a tougher run.

The horse who has just 55kg and could be the fly in the ointment is ALLKNIGHT SAINT. This is a nice horse on the comeback from injury in the very good Herne stable. This is a terrific race for this horse. He didn’t have much luck at the GC last start and the 4kg weight drop will help his cause.

TAX EXEMPTION was really solid at the SC and the Dunn/Colless combo always has to be respected.

Between the $6-9 mark happy to probably back both 1 + 9

On Top:  1- FRENCH LESSON   +   9- ALLKNIGHT SAINT

 

 

Race 6:

This is a race I may have entirely wrong.. A bit of quality in this class 6 with a lot of horses at this level off just a dozen starts. Haven’t got time to go over every horse but here are a few.

*Important to see if EUPHONIC and MONICELLI (scratched)both run. If they do, they will both shoot across together and make it at least a decent clip early although I don’t expect great speed.

Like the chances of MORE LEVERAGE (likely to be out) who gave Elmantosh a spanking 1st up last prep and ran time doing it. 51kg after the claim and if they ride him with a sit anywhere with cover he will let down nice.

Don’t think Birchley will be over the moon drawing wide with ROCK ROYALTY (I believe this horse will come out) getting the blinkers on first time. That is never ideal but the horse has upside and if he gets cover he should get his chance too.

TERMS OF TRADE (scratched)will again be backed and again run well. The problem is the gate and where he lands?

MONICELLI (scratched)should push forward to overcome the outside draw and does have a kick. Can run well. KEMPELLY won well last start and drops 3kg which is always a positive. TEAR IT UP gets a good gate and no excuses this time. PRETTY FACE  was really good when ridden a treat by Matheson last start and she also drops 3kg going into this off the back of that win.

Many other chances including MAGIC IN MOTION who wants further but will be strong late.

**Hardest race of the day, looking for value!

*Scratchings have made this hardest race of the day…

Value:  6- TEAR IT UP

 

 

Race 7:

Was looking for reasons something would jump out and beat MISHANI WARRIOR but he looks really well placed again. They didn’t forget to beat last time for good reason and I dare say they will back up. I struggle to find a reason why anything could turn the tables from last run on him and the new blood in the race will struggle against him.

FLYING HOME is some chance but I see him wanting further now he has been to this trip.

ANNA LIZZIE will look the winner but 1600m sees her right out and the last 50m will be her question.

Can’t catch FILLYDELPHIA, she has turned into ‘one of those horses.’

On Top:  2- MISHANI WARRIOR

 Matt Dunn Racing

 

Race 8:

Interesting setup here. Should be pace and of EXCEEDINGLY and ALQUERO run I will be keen to see if they rock across together and throw some serious early pace into it.

Love the blinkers back on Londehero and after the first up run I expect him to fire. 2nd up last prep he beat QUEEN OF THE LOCHS with blinkers on and meets on similar weights again.

QUEEN OF THE LOCHS has had a different sort of prep and I thought she was getting tipped out a couple of runs ago? Good horses, respect.

TOTAL AUTHORITY and EXCEEDINGLY fought a race out early in the month and EXCEEDINGLY (Scratched) was very good winning next start.

The X factor is GUNDY SPIRIT, he has had a let up and may sprint well fresh. He was gallant in defeat behind Into The Red and Enquare last prep before a flat run at the Millions that can be forgiven. Watch for him late and Browne takes the ride.

*Think Londehero looks bet worthy.

On Top:   1- LONDEHERO

TattsBet

 

GIBBO BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 3 No.3 – HARADA BAY

Best Each Way:

Brisbane Race 5 No.1 – FRENCH LESSON  $6

Brisbane Race 8 No.1 – LONDEHERO    $6

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BRISBANE Quadrella:  (Updated 9am QLD Saturday after scratchings)

1,2,4,10 —— 4,5,6,7,8,12 —— 2,5 —— 1,2,3

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THE PROPHETS’ Best Bets: (coming off a win)

*Brisbane Race 8 No.1 – LONDEHERO

*Melbourne Race 5 No.4 – FLORIA

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Steve Hewlett’s Best:

*Melbourne Race 9 No.4 – AKZAR

*Also likes RISING ROMANCE in the NZ Derby.

 

***TATTS MARKET MOVERS  + Gibbo’s DOUBLE TRIO numbers:

 

 

EAGLE FARM

Nothing of note to report

 

ROSEHILL  

1/3 Keith’s Legacy $14 to $10

3/1 Red Tracer $1.85 to $1.75

7/13 Gun Case $41 to $13

 

FLEMINGTON

4/3 Lady Lakshmi $21 to $13

8/5 El Magico $8.5 to $7.5