‘THE PUNT’ preview for 16th March

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Matt Dunn Racing

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We will focus on the Gold Coast meeting, however without a great deal of confidence. The track has been very wet but id drying. I have done this form on a SLOW track. This is a tight track that many horses don’t handle that well which is another concern.

I will brush over the races that look like a lottery.

TRACK-  GOLD COAST

Surface – ? SLOW friday but improving

RAIL- TRUE

 

BLACKBOOK runners:

blackbook

March 15
EIGHT BILLS MOONEE VALLEY R7 No.11 (1200m) :
March 16
PURE PURRFECTION GOLD COAST R4 No.11 (900m)
FEELING NAUGHTY GOLD COAST R4 No.14 (900m) :
RIVER LAD GOLD COAST R6 No.3 (1200m) :
KENTAUR GOLD COAST R8 No.10 (1400m) :
CONGO GOLD COAST R8 No.2 (1400m)

 

*Prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. www.tatts.com

 

Race 1:

An interesting affair with a LOT riding on the state of the track. VEETEN does not handle it wet and I could not back it on that ground. If the track got to dead he would be a real live chance.

MUKADDAMAH SON $5.50 is always competitive in these events. I don’t mind the freshen up and back to 1800m. His last two wins were with Browne on and that is a key booking here. He will be around the cash.

PRECIOUS MANDY has great track stats with 3 wins here. That shows she handles the track but can be a touch misleading as most of the time a GC run is in easier grades.

PLAYITSTRAIGHT gets to a trip it hasn’t run to before but the stable is going incredible and it is far from the worst.

*Track rating all important!!

On Top: 1- MUKADDAMAH SON

Hardest To Beat: 5- PRECIOUS MANDY

 

 

Race 2:

No, not interested… They all seem to take turns and a small field should lead to an ugly run race..

 

 

Race 3:

A pretty good class 6. Keen to watch the money for FLYING JET (SCRATCHED) ($4.20) as she does look the one to beat. Flies fresh, has won here and there should be enough pace for her to get home over them.

In saying that I do believe there are a couple of horses that can run well at decent odds. EMVOSS goes super 2nd up and promised a heap 12 months or so ago. Forget last prep and he could win without a surprise at $6.

COME SAID THE BOY $11 is over the mark. Carried big weights last prep and ran well in similar races to this. His last start was good and he is the value runner.

*Other chances but they are my top 2.

On Top: 4- COME SAID THE BOY

Hardest To Beat: 5- EMVOSS

 

 

 

Race 4:

PURE PURRFECTION looks a great e/w bet at $6. Gate 3, 54kg, and McMahon take the ride. She can sit just in front of midfield and will get home hard.

DOUBLE IMAGE is outstanding when right. Watch the money with this horse. If it comes than expect a huge run!

SPIRIT OF FLATLEY is first up and very good on its day also. Has the top jock engaged from the inside gate- Respect.

HAIZUM and MR FAVULOUS are quality horses and have apprentices engaged for some relief from the big weights.

ROCKET TO GLORY is ready to win and going really well. Gate 13 is not a great help though…

*Think we are getting an inflated price from Pure Purrfection’s last run looking ordinary on paper, but it was a good effort and was given no chance.

On Top: 11- PURE PURRFECTION

 

 

Race 5:

Look I really don’t want to be tipping in a race like this. Full field of 2yr olds around the tight coast track with some even being 1st starters. I will simply give 5 horses I think can run well.

11- GOING GOING GONE

12-MARACOOLA

13-SPLENDORA

18-MISS HUSSON

7-MISHANI GLADIATOR

*Good luck with this!!

 

Race 6:

THE SIXTIES gets an easy lead and can be hard to catch. Hellyer knows the horse well and it loves this track!

RIVER LAD had a super prep last time in(3rd in the Ramornie 2nd up) and put the writing on the wall with a great 1st up run.

SKATING ON ICE had a horrible prep last time but went huge first up.. Do we take on trust of that run? If she reproduces that she can win this.

SIGNIFIED gets the sting out of the track and the return win was excellent. Browne and Wood with an up and coming horse could be the right combination.

FITNESS FANATIC the best of the rest.

On Top: 6- SIGNIFIED

Next Best: 9- SKATING ON ICE, 5- THE SIXTIES, 3- RIVER LAD

 

 

Race 7:

CAELLUM is the best horse in the race and I have to have him on top. I do have a slight query 2nd up after a tough kind of run but hard to go past the class horse with a good gate. (well I think he has the most upside)

LITTLE BROWN HORSE is trained here and gets Lloyd aboard from gate 2. Has the ability to use that gate to its advantage and a repeat run that seen it get with a length of Commandare last start would have it winning.

KARL THE GREAT is the track specialist who has won or placed in 7 of his 9 runs here.

DIENEKES, TRAGEDY and NOVIKOV the next best and can all run well at good odds.

On Top: 2- CAELLUM

Hardest To Beat: 4- LITTLE BROWN HORSE

 

 

 

Race 8:

How many scratch from wide gates? Nearly all of the leading chances have horrible gates! That could lead to a blowout, but what horse??

I was initially keen on KENTAUR but was really waiting for him to go up in trip, not down??

CONGO returned a nice horse with 2 easy wins and then an unlucky 5th when blocked for clear running. At the $9 in early markets he would be the horse I am leaning to (not confidently by any means).

Very interesting B.Guy has gone with Cahill on REGULAR and opted against the claim, it may be a sign of confidence. He comes off a win and he was only beaten 2.5L by Saluter over this track/trip in the Magic Millions 3yr old. That’s great form for this (Saluter would be $1.90)

LITTLE LONG HORN is very honest and trained on track. Gate is a concern and how much juice do they use pushing forward?

ROYAL JESTER broke through and is capable of going on with it.

YOU’RE MINE looks promising and up to a race like this.

**You need to realise how hard it is to line these up after all the rain. Horses like Royal Jester have been scratched a couple of times and Congo has been scratched four time…. Tread warily.

On Top: (I’d rather watch on, but feel 2- CONGO may run well + 15- YOU’RE MINE a chance at $26)

 

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Gold Coast Race 4 No.11 PURE PURRFECTION

Best Interstate:

Bendigo Race 8 No.15 LOHNROCKSTAR e/w

Bendigo Race 6 No.3 CHATEAU MARGAUX e/w

 

This weeks ‘Longshot’ chance-

Gold Coast Race 8 No.15 YOU’RE MINE @ $26

Not as ‘long’ but Bendigo Race 4 No.11 SPOT ON MAGGIE looks e/w value @ $11

 

Gold Coast Quadrella  (Expecting this to be very wide and pay well)

7,11,12,13,18 —– 3,5,6,9 —– 2,4,11,14 —– 1,2,7,9,15                   $100 = 25%

 

Sydney Quadrella:

1,2,6 —– 3,5,7 —– 1,5,9,10 —– 1,4,5,6,7 ,12

Those looking for a Quad with a ‘favourites flavour’

2,6 —–  3,7 —–  1 —– 1,4,5,6,7,12                                          $24  =  100%

$50

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

BENDIGO Race 9 No.18 SYSMO

GOLD COAST Rc 1 No.4 MANICERO

 

 

I put some feelers out on Twitter and Facebook through the week. I was considering a bit of a BRISSYRACES day to have a punt and a chance for followers to meet up for a beer and hopefully a few laughs.. I haven’t decided if we would head to the track or a big pub in Brissy or the Gold Coast yet, but if that’s something you feel you would consider coming along to send a quick e-mail or something so I can work out what type of venue to look at. Maybe one of the Turf Clubs might realise they could do well by supporting Brissyraces??

It would probably be later, possibly October? and would just be a relaxed day with some giveaways etc.

 

 

TATTS JACKPOTS + MARKET MOVERS

GOLD COAST

4/11 Pure Perrfection $6.0/$5.5

5/12 Maracoola $6.5/$6.0

 

WARWICK FARM

5/4 Cathay Lady $10.0/$7.5

6/1 It’s A Dundeel $8.5/$6.5

 

BENDIGO

9/18 Sysmo $5.0/$4.8

 

TattsBet

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 16 March 2013

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

QD

WARWICK FARM (SR)

-

$79,961

RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

YOUNG (ST)

6

$2,000

YOUNG CUP

QD

ALBION PARK (BT)

-

$15,449

RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5

TT

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

-

$3,805

RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

 

 

****Thanks for checking in. Good luck if you have a punt!