‘The Punt’ preview for a muddy Doomben!

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‘The Punt’ Preview for the 14th July- DOOMBEN

This time we head to a very soggy Doomben! Rain is predicted over the meeting and there will be some doubt over it getting through the whole race card.

 

For that reason and the fact there may well be 40-50 scratching’s, I will not go to the same level of rundown for each race as our normal ‘The Punt’ preview, but will still try to highlight the best chances. I also have a very sick child on my hands so I don’t have the time I usually would.

*Although I have said it before, genuine wet tracks simply make racing even more of a lotto. You don’t have to bet each race, and to tell you the truth, you don’t have to bet at all if it’s wet. It can often pay to hold fire for another day.*

It was a big Wednesday and Thursday on the site with the Grafton carnival in full swing. I know there were some happy punters with our Ramornie day preview and a heap that followed our Brad Herne article. He trained two from two on Wednesday which is a great result for the Brissy based trainer. Even better for the punters was his honest assessment of his horses which steered plenty into them.

 

 

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

(I try to cover all type of punters, so for those who don’t know, Blackbookers are simply horses we pick out to follow and who I think can win shortly)

July 14
PRECIOUS SNIPPETS BELMONT R7 No.4 (1400m)
SVARA BELMONT R7 No.7 (1400m)

KEVEJON DOOMBEN R5 No.9 (2100m)
AVOID LIGHTNING MORPHETTVILLE PARKS R4 No.2 (1000m)
EBONY ROCK WARWICK FARM R7 No.6 (1600m)

Here is the preview- All prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. For a price update go to

www.tatts.com

Race 1: (sratch 1,4,9)On a good surface I’d be keen on HIDDEN KISSES after her run last week. However with a genuinely wet track this is anyones race. SIGNIFIED is the obvious one and he is the horse I have on top. He has worked his way through the grades nicely and has a bright future. The concern is the price?? I wouldn’t be jumping into anything too short. Personally I would consider him over $3, but anything less won’t get me in.

On Top: 2-SIGNIFIED (if odds allow)

 

Race 2: (sCR 1,2,4)Most races it is easy to find a case for most the runners. In this race it’s hard to make a case for any at all and I don’t like it at all.

I have a lot of time for DOUBLE IMAGE and class will probably get him home, but he may well start short and it is always a risk backing horses 1st up on a heavy track..

SHEKINAAR comes over from Adelaide and may have a class edge, but wet form a bit of a concern?

**Won’t be betting.

 

Race 3: (SCR 3,8,9,10,13,15,17,20,21)JACARANDA AVENUE will be all the rage and other than the gate it’s hard to knock. Ran some good races on wet ground in Melb and the gun apprentice Matheson claims 3kg.

I will be making my bet something small on ACCIDENTAL from the Schweida stable. It has only had the one start and was beaten 3L by Doubtfilly after being posted 3 wide the entire trip. I couldn’t access the recent trial for some reason, but Chris Nelson’s (QLD  trial review) shows the horse went ok and that’s enough for me to have a nibble at the $17 it has opened up at on Tattsbet.

PARSNIPS is a very good type who would rather it dry but I do respect it.

*This race could throw up anything without surprising.

Value: 7-ACCIDENTAL

Others: 11-JACARANDA AVENUE, 12-PARSNIPS

 

Race 4: (SCR 1,4,5,7,9,10,12,13)A pretty competitive no metrop win race. MY QUILTER hasn’t finished worse than 4th in his last 7 starts, but he hasn’t won any either. This looks his race and on a dry surface I think he’d be a good thing. He does have to get through the ground and although not the perfect scenario, he has competed well on the wet his last two.

MARCULOO is looking for a hat trick of wins for Ben Ahrens and does look the obvious danger. Another who would rather it dry, but she will win more races.

CASH’N’STYLE was competitive enough at the Sunny coast to give him a chance here. Steps up to the 1600m but that shouldn’t be an issues. FRETON, SKATER DUDE and EASY LARGER can be thrown in tri’s to find some value.

*Leaning to MY QUILTER who drops back from class6 and Benchmark 90 races, just ahead of MARCULOO who steps up from class 3 and benchmark 75.

On Top: 3-MY QUILTER

Hardest To Beat: 6-MARCULOO

 


Race 5: (SCR 2,4,5,7,8,11)A couple of exceptional wet trackers in KEVEJON and RACING HEART engaged here. They are the two that interest me and at $11 and $4.80 I will probably back both the win.

RACING HEART carries 59kg after the claim but he is fitter for 4 runs back and there are not many better wet trackers in QLD.

KEVEJON only carries 54kg, he ran ok last week and gets back to 2100m on a genuine wet track he will love. This may well be his chance to win in town!

No knock GREY ASSIGNMENT or AUSWORLD, but the other two seem more suited to the surface.

On Top: 9-KEVEJON, 1-RACING HEART.

 

Race 6: (SCR 3,4,11)BRIGADOON JACK comes back to town and has been flying (and winning) at the GC. He will put himself on pace which can help on wet Doomben tracks and with 51kg on his back he will be very hard to beat.

MEET GEORGE loves the mud and comes off a good run in the glasshouse. That’s a great formline for this and he will again run well.

JOINT CHEIFS going ok and VIPERA GOLD simply goes good on heavy tracks..

On top: 5-BRIGADOON JACK

Hardest To Beat: 2-MEET GEORGE

 

 

Race 7: (SCR 1,9,10,11,13,15,18)Throw a dart at them. Not keen at all, but I know punters will want some type of steer for their quaddies. ‘Field’ wouldn’t be a bad option.

LONE ASSASIN has had a couple of runs back and that helps his fitness on the heavy track. PRODUCT is a nice mare with a bit of ability who may need one more? GREYZEEL and REQUESTED handle the wet, while SHAFEEQ and AMBER ALE are speedsters who will give some cheek, but may need it drier.

**Tough race- Not tipping for the sake of it.

 

Race 8: (SCR 2,3,9,10,11,13,16,17)BRADBURY CHOCOLATE beat TOP OF THE ROCK last start at Toowoomba by 3L and meets that horse 1kg better off at the weights. So why have I got TOP OF THE ROCK on top? She will sit on pace and is by a wet track sire and has good heavy form. BRADBURY CHOCOLATE has to go in on class.

I have doubts on ROYAL SHOUT on a heavy, but he has raced well in harder races.

MR FAVULOUS and DR ICHI also have raced at a better level and after the claims they get in well at the weights. Class will make them competitive.

Respect any money for  MILITARY GRACE having its first start for the Gollan camp.

On Top: 6-TOP OF THE ROCK

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

**For the first time in a long time I’m not keen to have a bet in Brisbane. Our hopes may rest with ‘The Prophet’.

Perth Race 7 no 4 PRECIOUS SNIPPETS

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

1,3,9 —– 2,5 —– 3,5,6 —– 1,5,6.

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 4 No 2 CASH’N’STYLE

Brisbane Race 6 No 5 BRIGADOON JACK

 

 

TATTSBET MARKET MOVERS****

DOOMBEN

Nothing of note to report

 

WARWICK FARM

6/3 See The World $4.3 to $3.7

 

CAULFIELD

2/2 Rusambo $3.25 to $2.85

6/4 Second Effort $6.0 to $5.5

6/8 Mister Milton $35.0 to $17.0

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 14 July 2012

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
TF CAULFIELD (MR) 6 $200,000 SIR JOHN MONASH STAKES
TT MORPHETTVILLE (AR) - $20,944 RACES 6, 7 & 8
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 5 $2,000 4&5YO C’SHIP
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 7 $2,000 THE SLIPNSLIDE
TF ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $20,000 M1 ONLY
TF GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $10,000 C3 TO C5

 

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember if you are on FACEBOOK- ‘like’ brissyraces so you don’t miss out on the latest articles., and tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

Gibbo