‘The Punt’ preview Ipswich Cup Day

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Let’s head west to Ipswich! It is a race day that is a must for QLD racing and I love the fact they get a big day. For punters however it can be an absolute nightmare. The track can play 1000 different ways, but on its day it is pretty good.

The fact it is so tight can make it hard for horse to make ground, and if you get caught wide it takes a damn good horse to run in the money. Beware, and pick your races carefully!

**All Prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. Click on Tatts banner on right hand side for latest**

TRACK RATING: Should start a (DEAD 4)

Rail – Out 0.5m

 

 

Race 1: Think this can be a good way to kick the day off. Two main chances in GREY ASSIGNMENT and TELESTO WARRIOR who are track specialists. If they happen to put up $4 or so GREY ASSIGNMENT you can be confident the price will be snapped up. His first two runs for Kelso Wood have been massive from bad gates. He gets a smaller field here and should be able to round them up with the 54kg which is a drop of 3.5kg from what he carried at Doomben. TELESTO WARRIOR has won 4 of 9 races here and Mick Lakey has the 7 year old in career best form. Gets in with 51kg after the claim and will rail like a greyhound around his favourite track. Outside of those RIVER OF SALVATION looks the other main chance.  He will get a cheap lead and that should give him every chance. ON FACE VALUE is the other on pacer who can run into trifecta’s.

*Confident of a result early here working around these two..

On Top: 7-GREY ASSIGNMENT

Hardest To Beat: 5-TELESTO WARRIOR

 

Race 2: Probably not the strongest two year old race we have seen. They will go like last week’s wages here. MAFIA PRINCESS and OPTIONALITY are speed machines and don’t have long to cross from wide gates. (BOTH THOSE SPEED HORSES SCRATCHED) OPTIONALITY has run 2nd and 3rd to Doubtfilly who ran 4th in the Slipper. It has also won or placed in 7 of 9 starts, most in town yet only has 56kg? You may know some mates and I have a small share in CALDETES. He is a pretty promising Jet Spur who has gone shin sore a couple of times and was a bit of a handful, hence the gelding operation. Unfortunately he has missed trials etc because of all the rain and prep has been messed about. I have a slight concern over the last 100m, but he can win with some luck in running. FANTASHIA looks well above average and if she had drawn well I thought she would simply win. She will probably go back to avoid being wide but with the pace on she will fly late. Her debut win against easier company was devastating winning by 6 ½. MOMENT OF IMPACT is another who has only had the one start, was gelded and returns from a spell. It could improve sharply. The other winning hope is probably SPLENDENT CHOICE who won well on debut and then ran well last week in the listed race behind Hoss Amor. She was only beaten 4L in that race and gets a great run in transit here. That is a great pointer for this.

*I’d expect the winner to be in the three below, but I’ll be cheering Caldetes. (THE SPEED HORSES NOW OUT) There will still be even pace.

On Top: 8-FANTISHA

Hardest To Beat- 2-CALDETES, 12-SPLENDENT CHOICE

 

Race 3: Looks a good race, and I think with a hot pace ROCKER should salute. He is a very good horse who has always promised a lot. He has won 5 of his 9 starts and the blinkers come off here. He has the best in Colless on board and more importantly drops from a listed race where he was narrowly beaten by Excellantes to a class 6. ALTAI WARRIOR is the other horse I think is a winning chance. He will have to give ROCKER a head start and gate 1 may not suit which is the reason I’m leaning to the fav. ALTAI WARRIOR however is underrated and will fly late. He goes great for Wiggins and just forget it’s last run in SYD where O’Hara rode the horse the wrong way and he was still ok. STARTSMEUP has run 2nd in a Magic Millions 3 yr old race and 2nd to Bullbars in a C.S.Hayes stakes at Flemington. He was giving weight to horses like Spirit Of Boom, Adebisi and Ready To Rip last campaign but kicks off here with 54.5kg which he hasn’t carried for a long time. LIESELE has trouble winning but has had some hard luck runs in her time. She drops 3.5kg on her solid Scone run. PRETTY COMPOSED is the horse on the way up and was very good in the same Scone race. She has always been ‘green’ but is improving all the time and has a good race in her at some stage.

On Top: 3-ROCKER

Hardest To Beat: 4-ALTAI WARRIOR, 14-PRETTY COMPOSED, 10-STARTSMEUP

 

Race 4: This is a ‘hail mary’ race. I won’t be getting to involved and I won’t be going into to much depth. You should be looking for some value here , so I will throw a couple out to think about. OUR TRIPLE TREAT has been racing well and gets to 2150 for the first time. On breeding he should handle it and Colless is on top. The bad gate is a tough call, but that’s Colless’ job now. DAAD’S OVERTIME is one of the most costly conveyances around but gets back to the dry track, from gate 1 and has Lloyd on top. Worth thought.

*GOOD LUCK if you have a go here….

 

Race 5: I think it could be wide first leg of the quaddie. I have a hell of a lot of respect for ANDROMACHE and I have been taken with her last two wins. She is definitely the one to beat from her good gate but this is a step up and you are being asked to take $3.60? I’m looking for value and I think a few locals can run well. Byrne simply needs a touch of luck getting a run from gate 2 on HIDDEN KISSES and she can be up to these. Her 1st up run was good when posted wide and with 54kg she will be thereabouts. DUAL CHAMBER got back to her winning ways last start and looked good. She drops 1.5kg into this and I think it will be run to suit her. SOPHIES SPIRIT is a very nice mare who will push forward. That makes it hard with other pace to put pressure on her but she will look the winner at the 100m. GAI’S CHOICE has come back a new horse and won by 6L in SYD last start. She has gate 19 to overcome but will love the speed on. BALMONT and VIPERA GOLD the best of the rest, but like others it comes down to luck in running.

*Really hard to judge this race. I will be watching on. No result would surprise.

Hard To Split- 4-DUAL CHAMBER, 7-GAI’S CHOICE, 8-HIDDEN KISSES, 11-ANDROMACHE…. But the race doesn’t end there!

 

 

Race 6: A horse like GINGA DUDE should simply be able to carry 60kg and beat this lot around Ipswich. He is a genuine Group horse and you can’t say many of the others are. The form around Lights Of Heaven at WFA is outstanding and he looks the winner. The track specialists are always the ones to be concerned about. In this race MR LIGHT BLUE and AUSWORLD are worth considering for trifecta’s as they always run well here as a lot of horses don’t handle the tight turns. KINNERSLEY will race handy and Munce may even try to get on GINGA DUDE’s back and get a track into the race from the 600m. PLAYACTION is improving each run and SHENZHOU STEEDS is the most interesting runner engaged. If you forget his last run and go on previous form you would have to say he has the most upside here. His win in the Sunny Coast guineas last year was great and he just needs to handle the track to be a massive chance.

On Top: 1-GINGA DUDE

Hardest To Beat: 6-SHENZHOU STEED, 7-MR LIGHT BLUE, 3-KINNERSLEY

 

Race 7: There is always pace on in the Eye Liner. Luck plays a massive roll around this tight track with a capacity field. There are usually about five hard luck stories every year. For that reason gates are extra important. BELLTONE is a standout in this race and this looks tailor made for him. He will probably land around 6th one off the fence and will get every chance. He has opened up around $3 and that is too short for mine. He is good, but gee there is no value what so ever in a tough race! The horse that does look value is DURHAM TOWN. He is a handy kiwi that we haven’t seen the best of yet. Last start in the BRC Sprint he was three wide the entire and nearly ended up on Nudgee rd coming the widest but still found the line. He gets a great run and at around $12 is a must for exotics. ADNOCON won this race fresh last year and attempts the same task. At his best he can trouble them. STEEL ZIP is better on top of the ground and is more than up to this, however the barrier draw of (15) is a drama. Same goes for RIVA DE LAGO who has gate 16. I will also make a case for one at $51+ in DALZAR. He ran really well in this race last year. Forget the run on a heavy track two runs ago, and last start he over-raced with the blinkers on and was checked a couple of times. They come off here and he will run better than the odds predict.

*Belltone looks the winner but I wouldn’t be taking silly odds.

On Top: 5-BELLTONE

Hardest To Beat: 4-DURHAM TOWN, 3-ADNOCON

Roughie for Exotics: 13-DALZAR

 

Race 8: If AMETSIS runs here she will be around the $5 mark and she is the way I would head. She comes off a 4th placing to Red Tracer in the G2 Dane Ripper and drops to a 3 year old handicap and carries 54kg! She has far more going for her than most of her opposition. ABSOLON has looked average at best, but he has been searching for a dry track and just has to overcome the barrier to be amongst them. DIVINE CITY and KELBENJAR (SCRATCHED) are both going very well, have a touch of class, but they also have gates 14 + 15 to deal with. VACALLO has Browne, gate 4 and the 1350m is perfect. He can get the gun run behind the leaders and will be the one they have to run down. SLYSERA, BRUHAUSER, DAZZLE US, DORCHESTER, BEVICO GIRL and CASTLE HILL (SCRATCHED)can all have cases for them in what looks a very tricky race to finish the day on.

UPDATE- Going over this race again, and with a couple of scratchings the Quaddie numbers have changed. O’GRADY now worth thought at big odds. Cooksley will get him in a great spot.

*I think AMETSIS is the way to go, and VACALLO may be the one who gets the gun run. Away from them it’s dart board stuff trying to guess where horses end up in the run from wide gates. Don’t even bother with a speed map here.

On Top: 14-AMETSIS

Hardest To Beat: 4-VACALLO

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Ipswich Race 1 No 7 GREY ASSIGNMENT

Ipswich Race 7 No 5 BELLTONE

Sydney Race 4 No 3 EUCUMBENE

Sydney Race 5 No 1 ADROITLY

Best Each-Way: Adelaide Race 7 No 6 SAVANNAH’S CHOICE

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

2,4,5,7,8,11 —- 1,6 —- 3,4,5,13 —- 2,4,6,11,14,15,19

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s: ( A couple shorter this week he simply thinks will win)

Ipswich Race 6 No 1- GINGA DUDE

Ipswich Race 7 No 5- BELLTONE

 

***The Blackbookers have moved down the page- Here they are.

BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

June 16
GREY ASSIGNMENT IPSWICH R1 No.7 – Going particularly well and on top select.
PLAYACTION IPSWICH R6 No.8 – Tough task, but peaking now.
DUSTY GOLD IPSWICH R7 No.17 –Does he get a run?
STEEL ZIP IPSWICH R7 No.2 _Gate makes it hard.
BELLTONE IPSWICH R7 No.5 – With even luck should win.
SAVANNAH’S CHOICE MORPHETTVILLE R7 No.6 – Very keen e/w on her.
EUCUMBENE ROSEHILL R4 No.3 – Should just win yet again for us.
AL’S GOLD ROSEHILL R7 No.9 – He’s the best knockout chance at odds today.
SCOTTISH BORDER ROSEHILL R8 No.4 – Big odds and worth throwing in quaddies.

 

 

 

***Mick Sharkie’s preview of Melbourne has arrived! Nice play last week giving RIZIZ a winning chance at $21. Here’s his look at  a couple this week.

RACE 3 (1.30pm) 2000m 3yo+ F&M 0-89 Hcp
Expected Pace – Moderate (leaders should be favoured)
NO. 6 AERONWY is quite a promising filly and she was very good at Sale but I wonder if she is going to get into a very short price in this race…I don’t expect that this will be run at a strong gallop, Blue Nile probably leads from NO. 1 MANILA JEWEL and with a soft camp on the speed I am favouring that mare ahead of the filly. Manila Jewel brings some really strong 2000m form to this race with runs/wins against the likes of Placement, The Night’s Hot, and Epingle, and those three mares have been in terrific form during the last 8 weeks. Last start she ran up wide for the first half of the race in a race run 4-5 lengths faster than the average for the track and trip over the first section, and this would have taken a little steam out of her. Regardless of the run she kicked hard off the bend and gave the winner Model To Nite plenty of fight to the line, it’s worth noting that the other two on-pace runners in that race finished between 11-13 lengths behind her at the line. She’s no dill at this level and I suspect she will get out to around $4 which is attractive. NO. 6 AERONWY is going to be backed on race day, I have little doubt about that, so I am wary that the Moody/Nolen/last start winner factor might see her start under the odds. What she has in her favour is a good turn of foot, so if Nolen can pinch ground to the 300m without pushing her to catch Manila Jewel, she might just sprint right past – again the tactics around these two will be crucial. NO. 2 THE NIGHT’S HOT always runs well to this distance range and is near unbeatable at it on the country circuit, her record in town is not as impressive though. She rates a certain top four finish but I favour the top two clearly ahead of her. I need to see Blue Nile off a slight setback so NO. 3 STORM BURST is taken as the fourth pick, she ran well behind Model To Nite and Manila Jewel but had the speed in her favour.
TIPS –
1, 6, 2, 3
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (another tactical battle between top two picks)
BETTING ADVICE – We could back Aeronwy early before she is backed into favouritism then wait for Manila Jewel to drift out and then have a good go at her. I really do think that one of them will win and we should be able to back both and still make a nice profit
RACE 4 (2.05pm) 2000m Open Hcp
Expected Pace – Moderate (leaders should be favoured)
Expecting a rolling tempo here, nothing too breakneck but certainly not pedestrian either. I was very keen on NO. 10 HARRY TRIMBOLE (NOW SCRATHED)when I suspected that he was heading to Sydney for a wet track, but news that Flemington will race like a slow deck caused Mick Kent to keep him at home and I’m just as happy to back him here. Harry loves wet, shifty ground – his form in those conditions in NZ is quite strong and I’ve seen the horse work superbly on wet ground at Cranbourne – Kent has been patient, and he gets his wet track this week. He returned really strong figures here last start under 58kg’s. NO. 4 TURNITUP certainly gets his chance to win a race after three consecutive seconds, the latest when chasing the smart Mr O’Ceirin. He tried really hard in that race and on my figures it was his best run this campaign – he won’t be easy to run down. NO. 3 MY BENTLEY could be the knock out runner at odds – Nolen on, blinkers on, back to the track where he ran easily his two best races this prep. It is very hard to back him with much confidence, but as I mentioned earlier, recent form on this surface might be an ace in the hand this weekend. NO. 8 MODEL TO NITE was a good winner at this track over Manila Jewel but she tackles the boys – she will be working on well at the end of the race, but I would be surprised if she was able to win.
TIPS – 10, 4, 3, 8
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (liking the top pick)

BETTING ADVICE – I suggest that you back Harry Trimbole to win, with a saver on Turnitup to cover the bet

 

(With HARRY TRIMBOLE scratched it looks as though Sharks top pick will be TURNITUP)

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 16 June 2012

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

IPSWICH (BR)

7

$88,600

EYE LINER STAKES

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$24,422

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$35,000

M2 TO M3

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$15,000

C3 TO C5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

WENTWORTH PARK (SG)

8

$1,000

PETER MOSMAN CLASSIC FINAL

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Remember if you are on FACEBOOK- ‘like’ brissyraces so you don’t miss out on the latest articles., and tell your mates to jump on for all the latest in Qld racing, and of course the cheapest form guide you can get for a Saturday – “The Punt” guide!

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo