‘The Punt’ preview Oaks day

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**Hopefully those who jumped on for a look at the midweek quaddie may have a bit of money for today? Thanks for those who got in contact, it’s always good to get some feedback. The Quaddie paid well at $770 so I hope it helped. We don’t usually go over to many selections of a Wednesday, but if I think they are worth looking at I will put some selections up, so it is worth checking in to see.

We make our way to Eagle Farm for the next couple of weeks of the carnival and the worst nightmares of most may come true. As we have said before the Eagle farm surface simply needs a complete overhaul and get back to being the jewel in the crown of QLD racing. Unfortunately it is the track that has been patched for over 100 years and I am worried at what the interstate trainers will think of the track if we did happen to get two solid weeks of rain for the Eagle Farm features?

This is not having a sulk, it simply needs doing. Not many involved in the racing want to come out and say it, but I guarantee that it will be mentioned if we get the predicted 20ml or so through the meeting. Doomben is a modern, cambered track with a great profile, therefore it is a totally different betting proposition when rain is around. The worst thing that can happen at Eagle Farm Saturday is rain during the meeting as the track would deteriorate very quickly. If that happens I’d be treading warily and thinking twice about getting too involved.

We have been lucky over the last few years at Eagle Farm, and hopefully our luck can hold for a touch longer.

 

*Now that I have you worried we should have a look at the race card!!

 

**As we did last week Mick Sharkie from www.theshark.com.au will be supplying a preview of a couple of the Melbourne races for you and I’m sure that can also help you find a winner for the day! His preview will be at the bottom of this page.

 

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

June 02
ACADEMUS EAGLE FARM R3 No.4 – Good youngster that can roll the fav with luck.

STRADON EAGLE FARM R6 No.19 (1400m)
DOWAGER QUEEN  EAGLE FARM R7 No.2 – The rain has played into her hands and she’s a live chance.
MISS ARTISTIC  EAGLE FARM R7 No.3 – NZ oaks winner who can add QLD oaks to her CV.
QUINTESSENTIAL  EAGLE FARM R7 No.8 –Thought she was a ‘good thing’ on dry track. Slight question now?

BELLTONE EAGLE FARM R8 No.16 (1300m)
MISS BINDI  SANDOWN LAKESIDE R2 No.6 (1200m)
EUCUMBENE WARWICK FARM R7 No.11 – Really like this horse. Would rather a big track, but can win.

 

**All prices are TattsBet prices at time of typing**

 

**FORM IS DONE ON SLOW/HEAVY rating**

 

 

Race 1: Very surprised ANGUSROY has opened at double figures. Although his last win was in midweek company, he destroyed them late over the 1500m on a heavy track. I think the step up in distance is to his advantage and he goes well on all surfaces. Most of these have had a lot of chances but this bloke is still improving and a win here would not surprise in the least. At those odds I will be backing him e/w. SWEET LITTLE FILLY is also big odds and can run well. She gets a good run from the gate, she handles the wet, and again last start was her best run to date and we may not be at the bottom of her yet (she is also in Sunday at the Sunny Coast so may run there).  LOVINGTHELIMELIGHT is probably the best horse in the race and with 54kg she does look a live chance on the back-up from a solid run last week where she was strong through the line. They look the main three but conditions on Saturday morning will play a big part. If the rain comes KAROO improves lengths and can run into tri’s. On the other side FULL METAL JACKET would rather a drier track and if that eventuated he comes right into it.

*Happy to go with the value here.

On Top: 6-ANGUSROY e/w

Hardest To Beat: 14-SWEET LITTLE FILLY, 13-LOVINGTHELIMELIGHT

 

 

Race 2: A very hard race and I will be avoiding it. There is simply too many unknowns.. FIREBOLT(SCRATCHED) has been flying of late and has his hoof on the till. It’s worth noting he did win on a slow 6 by 2 ½ a couple of years ago but is that a good lead? DUSTY STAR has a great wet track record but 1500m and recent for good enough? ST GERMAINE is another very close to a win. She has won a G 3 in NZ on a slow 8. Where does she get to from the gate? CARRY ME BLUEY gets a jockey change and blinkers back on which is a big help. However his best form is not slow/heavy? VIVA LAS was one I thought could measure up here, but again not sure about a slogging 1500 at this level? The import MISS CHRISSY could be outstanding. She has run over 3000m, so how does 1500m 1st up draw you in for a real unknown horse?

*As you can see, there are too many questions for me and I don’t want to be tipping in a race like this because it would be a ‘hail Mary’.

PASS.

 

Race 3: Not a race I want to play in, and to be honest it looks a very shallow Group 2. The two clear favourites are lengths above the rest and I’d be surprised if they didn’t clear out again. Both SIZZLING and ACADEMUS were outstanding last start in the 1200m Champagne. They sat back in a slow run race and simply went passed the rest as expected. ACADEMUS was also wide on that occasion which added more merit to the run. SIZZLING won on a wet track two starts ago by 4.5L and rain during this meeting would play into his favour. I refuse to take the silly odds about him and will probably stay out of this all together!

*At the prices I’d slightly lean ACADEMUS ahead of SIZZLING but won’t be getting involved.

 

 

Race 4: Don’t like tipping short priced fav’s but simply can’t go past LIGHTS OF HEAVEN. Her last two runs have been terrific and she was running away from Manighar again on the line of the Doomben Cup. The 2200m holds no concerns, and she handles all track conditions. She is 4th up, peaks here and will be up on pace in a race that lacks tempo up front. The long break has done her the world of good and like most Zabeel’s she has just taken a bit of time to mature. SHEZ SINSATIONAL was plain last start but that is one of very few bad performances in her career. I’d put a line through that run and go on her past Aussie performances. Eagle Farm will suit her a lot more than Doomben and she did run well at this track in the Oaks and Derby last year. FIBRILLATION would struggle to compete on a dry surface but she seems to go as fast on a heavy as she does on a dead, so if the rain falls during the meeting she has to be given some consideration.

For those looking at exotic bets- GINGA DUDE and SCENIC SHOT are both in good form and can handle wet conditions. SCENIC SHOT won this race in 09 by 2 3/4L on a slow track, and the Brisbane Cup the same year on a heavy 8.

On Top: 8-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN

 

 

 

Race 5: After going over this race a dozen times I keep coming back to WEALTH PRINCESS. $4.60 + $1.80 on TATTSBET is near e/w odds and looks the go. Like most the set weights and penalty races she gets in well and Walker can sit where he wants from the perfect gate. She is one of the more honest and consistent mare in the race and you know she will put in. I want be pushing people out of the way to get on, but I think she has to be the top pick. You can often do well looking for the untapped horse in races like this and FOREFEITURE has been racing particularly well without any luck. She should have finished closer two starts ago and didn’t get clear at any stage at Scone. RED TRACER is the best mud runner in the race and I think she can push forward from the wide gate and be very hard to run down. She is 4 from 4 on slow/heavy. DIVORCES is the roughie in the race that can run well. She is tough and I thought her run in the Lord Mayor’s was full of merit. BONNIE MAC is another we are learning about. This is her hardest task but 5 wins in a row says a bit about her. RISK AVERSION (SCRATCHED) is one of the best mares in QLD but not sure what to make of her chances on a genuine wet track? Too scared to say no.

*FILLYDELPHIA, POTIONS and SOPHIE’S SPIRIT can all have cases made for them, but if I was going to thin it out I’d lean to the horses mentioned above.

On Top: 1-WEALTH PRINCESS e/w

Hardest To Beat: 7-RED TRACER, 13- FORFEITURE, 2-DIVORCES

 

Race 6: The punters who have backed MENTAL in the straddy will be sweating on his performance here and hoping he gets through the ground. It is probably not the perfect lead up to run on a wet track the week before either. However he is very smart and if he handles the conditions he should win. I can’t put him on top at around the $2 mark on a wet EF surface. Gate 2 looks good, but who knows how the track will be playing by race 6? It could be quicksand in there.. You just have to monitor during the meeting. AMAH ROCK ran 2nd to MENTAL last start so must be respected. BOYS ON TOUR is a swimmer and for some reason keeps starting good prices on wet tracks. He is much improved and rain on the day will enhance his chances! TRUMP is freshened up and around $41 on TattsBet is worth thought for those going wide in quaddies. He is proven on the ground and will be swooping late. PUNCH ON was recovering from a virus and that is the reason for the last start flop. She is far better than that. I do concede that it is not a perfect preparation, but don’t sell her short. DOUBLE IMPACT is a local who loves it wet and gets a great run in the race from (9). I rate SHOPAHOLIC right up there with Mental and she is probably decent odds. She has a win over Mosheen, and a win over Soft Sand to her credit. She had a few things go her way in those races, but all she can do is win. MORNING CAPTAIN and EMMALENE should be assessed on earlier form and their last runs completely forgotten where they were held up severely. EMMALENE is $26 on Tatts, she is far better than that suggests. FREE WHEELING stuck it to the older horses and only went down a head. That is a great pointer to a race like this. If he gets through the track he is in the top few. PEAR TART has put a gap on her rivals when getting to wet surfaces, albeit in easier company.

*MENTAL the obvious one but I think he has a few hurdles to jump this time and is too short for me to get involved.

On Top: 7-BOYS ON TOUR

Hardest To Beat: 2-MENTAL, 3-FREE WHEELING, 15-PUNCH ON

Roughie: 17-EMMALENE

 

Race 7: Where to start? Easy to make a case for half the field! QUINTESSENTIAL looked a ‘good thing’ on a dry track. The reports coming out of trackwork are that this filly has simply blossomed since arriving and is at her peak right now. She is all the talk from the track and looks to have stepped up a level since crossing the ditch. John Sargent said slow is ok, but heavy takes the real sprint out of her legs. The likely conditions could cost her the race, but don’t write her off just yet. Some are saying she would need to improve lengths from the kiwi form to beat MISS ARTISTIC, but that seems as though it could be the case as she seems to have closed the gap. MISS ARTISTIC was under done when she arrived and Ritchie has done a good job to have her peaking at the right time again. She will get through the wet surface and the trip is not a worry for the NZ oaks winner. DOWAGER QUEEN is 2 from 2 on a heavy surface and the money has rolled in all week for her. She was knocked down at the 1300m mark in the Roses and she will improve sharply. SCORPIO QUEEN flew late in an eye catcher in the same race and she also won on a very heavy Gold Coast track the start before that. She may well be the one who takes the next step with conditions to suit. VITTORIA and POST RESTANTE are similar in many ways. Both are by kiwi stallion Postponed and both should push forward and sit in the first 6-7 in running here. They are true stayers and I think the wet will play into their hands. PRETTY PINS is big value but she gets a wet track she will enjoy and Colless takes the ride. From all accounts the blinkers on have done the trick with her and she may well be coming good at the right time.

ROCK HIT and LOVE EXCELLS have form lines very hard to line up, but in an open race like this on a wet track… Maybe, just maybe you could entertain for exotic bets.

*A good edition of the Oaks. Shame about the weather, but it is what it is. There is value everywhere but I won’t be getting too involved now.

On Top: 5-SCORPIO QUEEN

Hardest to beat: 3-MISS ARTISTIC, 2-DOWAGER QUEEN, 8-QUINTESSENTIAL

 

Race 8: NEESON has not struck a wet track like this in a long time. His gate is no concern at this time of the day. The 59kg is not great on a heavy track, but he is a genuine group 1-2 horse, whereas most of these aren’t. He can roll forward and will have a kick. The $7.50 may nearly get me in. The main danger and the horse that is the best value is MEET GEORGE. He loves it when the rain is about and has come back really well this prep. He may come out here at $15 and show us what he has promised for a long time. The main concern is his ordinary form at E-F, but he can win. DURHAM TOWN’s form on the wet is deceiving. He was severly checked in a G 1 that he should nearly have won on a slow 8 (nz) and has won on a slow 7. I’d be throwing him in. CELTIC DANCER beat Mid Summer Music on the heavy two runs ago and was good again last time. STEEL ZIP may well have improved again this time in work and he ran 4th in the Lough Neagh on a slow 7 and did beat Tomboy on a heavy 9 last prep.

RIVA DE LAGO, BELLTONE (who was sensational 1st up) and FALINO should all be considered as well.

*Very tough way to finish.

On Top: 1-NEESON

Hardest To Beat: 8- MEET GEORGE,  10-RIVA DE LAGO, 16-BELLTONE

*Worth noting ‘The Prophet’ has tipped FUNTANTES.

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Best Bet: Race 4 no 8 LIGHTS OF HEAVEN

Best Each Way: Race 1 no 6 ANGUSROY

Interstate- SYDNEY Race 7 no 11 EUCUMBENE

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

1,2,7,13  —- 2,3,6,7, 15  —- 2,3,5,7,8, 10,11  —- 1,8,10,16

 

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 7 no 2 DOWAGER QUEEN

Brisbane Race 8 no 11 FUNTANTES

 

 

***MIck Sharkie has again been good enough to give us an insight into a couple of the Melbourne races.

Micks website theshark.com.au is going from strength to strength and it is a treat for us to be able to tap into his knowledge. Check out his site and his ‘The Shark’ facebook page.

RACE 4 (1.45pm) 3400m Australian Hurdle
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
On a firmer track I would have been keen to back Gotta Take Care to beat NO. 2 PALMERO but on a heavy surface Palmero really should be too strong. It’s his edge on a significantly rain affected track that should take him through to this level and help to keep his unbeaten record in tact, especially if allowed to bowl along on speed without pressure. NO. 4 GOTTA TAKE CARE would have been the bet on a Dead or at worst Slow 6 deck but not on heavy ground. He needs a big track, plain and simple, he was superb at Warrnambool behind Black And Bent then looked under pressure around the tight Mornington circuit before rallying late behind Palmero. These two stand out from the ruck in my opinion. NO. 8 KIRRIBILLI GOLD isn’t a bad “ruck” though, she’s very inexperienced over the jumps but is obviously pretty talented, I find it hard to plump for her as a genuine winning chance off one maiden win though. NO. 5 SEEKING THE SILVER is a good heavy track runner and his two runs this season have been good enough to see him get into a place.
TIPS – 2, 4, 8, 5
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (top two should fight it out)

BETTING ADVICE – Probably a race I want to watch rather than bet in, if you’re keen back Palmero to win with the exacta 4 / 2, 8 for $10 or $15

 

RACE 6 (3.10pm) 2100m Open Hcp
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
Puissance De Lune looks to be a really nice horse but gee $2.10 is short enough! I’m going to side with NO. 4 MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL at a longer price – he’s won his last four races, stepping up each time, with the latest win coming at this level at Caulfield – you know the old saying about winners at better odds next start? The horse just maps so well in this race, he should trail Mr O’Cierin and Turnitup with a break on the favourite, and if Damian Lane keeps a cool head he could pinch a bigger break out of the dip. The horse is foolproof and if the bookies are going to offer each-way odds around the $2 place market, we’re mad not to take the bet. 2100m won’t worry him in the slightest. NO. 9 MR O’CIERIN is another in form horse that is suited here. Boss brings him across at his leisure from a wide gate and he should find the front without much issue allowing Boss to control the speed. This is probably his last peak level run for the prep, but with super form through the Warrnambool Cup and some good figures from his last three runs he makes good each-way appeal at $10. NO. 12 PUISSANCE DE LUNE may well romp this in, it is near impossible to say that he is not up to this sort of field, but $2.10? Give me a break! He rates a half-length better than this field on my figures but that isn’t enough for me to take the $2. The big blow out runner is NO. 6 FIELDMASTER – he looked fat first-up and raced really fresh, leading for the first part of the race before taking a sit, and then fading. He’ll be fitter here and has a really good second-up record at a good level – on raw figures my data has him at $9 not $26.
TIPS – 4, 9, 12, 6
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 80% (good value around the fave)
BETTING ADVICE – I’ll probably play this strategically – A good each-way bet on Magnifique Soliel (if $2 place holds up), smaller each-way Mr O’Ceirin, and a win bet on Puissance De Lune to break even or make a small profit – shouldn’t lose on this race

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

forSaturday, 2 June 2012

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
TF EAGLE FARM (BR) 7 $105,508 QUEENSLAND OAKS
EX MORPHETTVILLE (AR) 8 $14,412 0 – 75 HANDICAP
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 GLOBE DERBY (AT) 4 $2,000 SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (2YO FILLIES)
F4 GLOBE DERBY (AT) 6 $2,000 SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (2YO C&G)
TF ALBION PARK (BT) 1 $25,000 M1 ONLY
TF GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $10,000 C1 TO C2

 

**Here are the early market movers as of y’day afternoon thanks to TATTSBET.

EAGLE FARM

 

6/7 Boys On Tour $13.0 to $8.0

7/2 Dowager Queen $9.0 to $8.5

7/6 Red Typhoon $26.0 to $21.0

8/5 Steel Zip $15.0 to $13.0

 

WARWICK FARM

1/6 Nechita $2.10 to $2.0

5/9 Komodo $13.00 to $10.0

6/8 Roi D’Jeu $31.0 to $21.0

 

SANDOWN

6/12 Puissance De Lune $2.25 to $2.1

8/13 Candy Stripes $19.0 to $17.0

 

 

**Thanks for visiting BRISSYRACES again. I hope my views in the preview can help you in some way. It does look a very tricky day and worth picking and choosing your bets carefully. It is a real shame about the weather and fingers crossed we can have finer weather leading into the Stradbroke next weekend!

Gibbo