“The Punt” preview QUEENS CUP day

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Back to Eagle Farm we head. There has been 7 straight sunny, dry days around Sth East QLD and you’d expect a drying track. (Although showers now predicted) I have some good judges telling me they feel it will be close to slow?

Doomben was a slow 6 Wednesday so if Eagle Farm can’t get back to a dead 4 (if the showers don’t arrive) the issues are even worse than most expect. At least the new powers in racing up here have said that the track does need doing, so let’s hope it happens!

The RAIL is at the 1M mark.

**For those new to ‘THE PUNT’ section, this is simply my look at the Brisbane racing card. You can do what you like with the info. You can print if off if you wish or take it to the races. On the other hand you can forget you read it. Anyway, the prices listed are www.tatts.com prices at the time of typing and I hope you enjoy this week’s edition!!

 

**BLACKBOOKERS can be found under the best bet’s at the bottom of the page**

 

Race 1: Formlines coming from everywhere here. HIDDEN KISSES come of the Gai Waterhouse race at Ipswich where she got hammered and you simply have to forgive her. She will love getting back to EF and I’m sure they will use gate 2 to their advantage and sit handy.

WAR CHARM brings some top shelf Syd 3yr old form around Landing, Nobby Snip and Niagara. He comes in here after 77 days off but if he can produce his best form it can be good enough to win. It’s not easy to take on the older horses at any time but he can win.

The hot stable of Matt Dunn has GOLDEN CASH in. On his day he’d be more than capable here. The question is 12 months off the scene into a pretty good race. It would be a great training effort but the way he is going I wouldn’t be questioning him.

LIESELE could blow them away but she has been far too costly for me. She has won just 3 of 22, but has run some very good races in good company. Again she gets in with a great weight and the perfect gate. Could today be the day?

MAGIC TARTAN may need one more run but she is yet another that wouldn’t surprise.

On Top: 7-HIDDEN KISSES 16-LIESELE,

Roughie: 4-GOLDEN CASH

 

Race 2: Not a great race to be betting in. CONTRACT CATERER is in the equation. He is a good quality consistent galloper who likes this track. He has won or placed in 5 of his last 6 and the failure was on a heavy. He has a very ordinary 1st up record but this is the first time he has come back fresh for this stable and he has trialled twice. Don’t sell him short.

KEVEJON is an emergency but if he was to get a run and there was still cut in the track he will get his chance to win in town. He has had 11 starts on good surfaces for no result.

For exotic betters FULL METAL JACKET, CYCLONE AL, NOISY OCEAN and ANGUSROY can all be given thoughts for tri’s etc.

*Not a good punting race.

Worth Thought: 4-CONTRACT CATERER, 15-KEVEJON

 

Race 3: The $100,000 maiden! Pretty shallow race with just 3-4 main chances. BEAUFORT GYRE has gate 4, can sit on pace and Munce takes the ride. It’s hard to say a horse ticks all the boxes in a maiden race, but this is as close as you will get.

CILEAN PLUME has the bad gate but will push forward and he ran 2nd to a horse I think is very smart -LOSE IT last start. That should be good form for this and he will look the winner at some stage.

LOVE SOMEBODY and AMPHLETT bring southern provincial form and have to be included. I would be leaning to LOVE SOMEBODY of the two.

The two interesting runners are ROYAL JESTER who is still a 2 year old who has run some nice races behind good horses, it’s just hard to line a 2yr old up? And the other is NIGHT CHILLS who ran a beauty behind the very promising SOMEDAY last start. If he gets a run keep him safe. Just look for the grey horse late.

‘The Prophet’ likes the chances of WINDSPLITTER who has come back a gelding.

**Maidens are not great betting prospects. BEAUFORT GYRE worth thought but short odds would steer me off.

On Top: 2-BEAUFORT GYRE

 

Race 4: Obviously with the small interest I have in CALDETES I have gone over this in great depth. The problem is each time you go over this race another question pops up. The best form race is the Listed race CALIENTE, SALUTER and DISCREET come out of. They ran 2nd,3rd and 4th respectively in that. DISCREET was the unlucky runner that day, but in saying that she wouldn’t have beaten the others by much as their runs were very good. 1400m suits all three which is a positive for them. I do believe however that they were all at the top of their game that day and there isn’t much improvement to come.

On the other hand CALDETES and FANTISHA who bring the other main form line into this, both have a lot of upside and both will improve lengths on that run. Both horses went into that run without a trial. Although the Ipswich race isn’t as strong as the other form line, it is unknown exactly how much these two will improve. CALDETES has trained on, has a good gate, but 1400m may be his query. The gate does give him every chance to run the trip and he can sit handy. FANTISHA has a bad gate but 1400m and E-F is tailor made for her and I wouldn’t be surprised if she runs a very big race. With any cover from her wide gate she will fly late.

Outside of those the best roughie is BEE PLUS from the Birchley yard who is still learning things but does look to have a lot of ability! ANTARCTIC DREAM has a wide gate to make it tough first up and FALLFORME is promising but is also out wide.

*I’d be surprised if the trifecta didn’t come from 1,3,5,10,12,14.

On Top: 14-FANTISHA

Hardest To Beat: 1-CALDETES, 10-DISCREET, 3-SALUTER

 

Race 5: St GERMAINE has finally found her right race and I think she will be very hard to toss after the claim for Anthony Allen. She will carry 57kg and drops back from Listed and G3 races all this prep to a benchmark 85. If she’s not around the money I will be disappointed.

VIPERA GOLD has to be forgiven for last week’s ride and her run was terrific. This is suitable and Munce is the key booking this week.

DUSTY GOLD got flattened last start and was also a forgive run. Maija Vance rides this week from an inside gate again and she will just need some luck on straightening.

FIRE UP FIFI is simply a superior horse when the cut is out of the ground. On that alone she has to be given serious thought. Her last win was good and she only carries 52.5kg.

I am an EMVOSS (SCR)fan but he may not have come up this prep and personally I’d like to see him produce before I get on again.

On Top: ST GERMAINE e/w

Hardest To Beat: 8-DUSTY GOLD, 12-FIRE UP FIFI, 7-VIPERA GOLD.

 

 

Race 6: I think everyone loves a 3200m race, but this may not be the best one we have ever seen (tongue in cheek).  My initial thought was BOOMING would simply be too good for these but I am now in MAYTHEHORSEBEMAGIC’s corner. At the $4.40 I think that represents better value than BOOMING’s $2.60 on TattsBet.

Both those horses ran well in the G3 Tatts Cup with BOOMING running 2nd beaten a length, and MAYTHEHORSEBEMAGIC 7th and 2.5L off the kiwi. MAYTHEHORSEBEMAGIC gets in 1.5kg better off at the weights and I really liked his last 100m in the Tatts Cup where he surged late and ran through the line strong. He has been very consistent and his only ‘flop’ was on an unsuitable heavy track at Warrnambool.

BOOMING gets the white hot Munce on board and he just has to lump the 59kg to be right in this.

ROI D’JEU, COUNT ENCOSTA and SPECHENKA are true stayers and I’d expect them to run well but I’ll be sticking with the fav’s.

On Top: 6-MAYTHEHORSEBEMAGIC

Hardest To Beat: 1-BOOMING

 

 

Race 7: AUDACIOUS SPIRIT gets a far easier lead than his last couple where Adebisi has been cutting his throat. That is a telling factor here and if the track is dry enough he can be a real factor. If he gets a cheap sectional or two in front he can sprint home his last 600m in 33.50-34sec. HEART TO FEAR with the blinkers first time will be the only other real leader, while THE SIXTIES will look to get the cheap run on the leaders backs.

Although GRIFFON has to get back from gate 9 I’m pretty keen to be in his corner. Hammersley goes back on top and he will get the horse to the outside as he seems to race better outside of horses. He may have been just a touch flat 2nd up but does drop back to a Listed race and loves the big EF track.

THE SIXTIES gets back to a more suitable trip on a surface that will suit. He may be some value.

Outside of those main two you can make cases for HAVATRYST, ADNOCON,  and DALZAR, but I think the winner will come from AUDACIOUS SPIRIT or GRIFON.

On Top: 3-GRIFFON

Hardest To Beat: 4-AUDACIOUS SPIRIT (If track is Dead, no worse), 6-THE SIXTIES

 

 

Race 8: Really liked the run of DORCHESTER at Ipswich where she hit the line hard. Has decent slow track form and ready to show her best.

EPIC TERRA comes right into this if the rain comes. His last 3 runs have been very good on-pace efforts and he’s only missed a place once in his 8 starts. DIVINE CITY also comes out of the same race and EF should be to her benefit. She has run ok on the wet before and she gets a great run from gate 5.

BLACK MAGIC is another blackbooker who attacked the line behind the very classy Howmuchdoyouloveme. The start before that was a dominant midweek win on a soft track. He is a must for quaddies. ALDINI has promised a lot and has mixed his form but prepared to say he’s a chance at his best.

VOLKHERE beat Kelbenjar two starts ago and then had a torrid run when wide all the way against Mental. Forgive him that run and with Hammersley on board from gate 3 he gets the gun run and every opportunity to atone here.

AQUATORIAL far from the worst with 56kg.

SOMEDAY gets a run now and he is untapped. Worth thought in quadrellas..

*Tough way to finish the quaddie off.

On Top: 14-DORCHESTER

Others: 16-BLACK MAGIC, 7-VOLKHERE, 6-EPIC TERRA

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 5 No 2 ST GERMAINE e/w

Best interstate: Adelaide Race 8 No 2 ZERPRISE US ALL

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections:

2,7,8—- 1,4,6 —- 2,3,4,6 —- 5,6,7,14,16

 

With the big jackpot, heres the

MELBOURNE QUADRELLA:

1,4,5,6,12 —- 2,6,9,13,14,16 —- 3,7  —- 1,3,9,14

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

E/W Special- Melbourne Race 7 No 3 READY TO RIP

Brisbane Race 3 No 8 WINDSPLITTER

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

July 07
CALDETES EAGLE FARM R4 No.1 (1400m)
DISCREET EAGLE FARM R4 No.10 (1400m)
FANTISHA EAGLE FARM R4 No.14 (1400m)
VIPERA GOLD EAGLE FARM R5 No.7 (1500m)
BOOMING  EAGLE FARM R6 No.1 (3200m)
DORCHESTER EAGLE FARM R8 No.14 (1400m)
BLACK MAGIC EAGLE FARM R8 No.16 (1400m)
FORTY THIRTY FLEMINGTON R2 No.4 (1800m)
BRAVE THE WAY ROSEHILL R5 No.9 (1800m)
July 08
LANDUNCAN GRAFTON R6 No.12 (1600m)

 

 ***TATTSBET MARKET MOVER****

EAGLE FARM

4/5 Bee Plus $21.0 to $17.0

6/6 Maythehorsebemagic $4.4 to $3.8

7/4 Audacious Spirit $4.6 to $4.4

 

ROSEHILL

3/8 Mashkoor $11.0 to $8.0

4/5 Shawnee Girl $13.0 to $10.0

5/13 Euryale $4.4 to $3.45

6/13 Kuhreihen $5.0 to $4.5

7/7 I Walk The Line $51.0 to $26.0

 

FLEMINGTON

3/1 Baron Douro $7.5 to $6.5

4/12 De Triomphe $19.0 to $16.0

7/3 Ready To Rip $5.5 to $3.8

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

forSaturday, 7 July 2012

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
QD FLEMINGTON (MR) - $100,000 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8
         
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 6 $2,000 QUEENSLAND OAKS
F4 GLOBE DERBY (AT) 3 $2,000 SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (3YO C&G)
F4 GLOBE DERBY (AT) 5 $2,000 SOUTHERN CROSS FINAL (3YO F)
QD ALBION PARK (BT) - $51,960 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5
TT GLOBE DERBY (AT) - $6,935 RACES 4, 5 & 6

 

 

**Thanks heaps again for taking the time to check out brissyraces.com.au. Feel free to print the preview off to take to the track or pub if you like it. If you’re at the track and spot my ordinary head say hello!

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo