‘The Punt’ preview Stradbroke day

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We move on to our grand final-The Stradbroke. Conditions have been drying all week and the track should play a lot better.

There are capacity fields and a lot to go over so the races that I can compact a bit I will to save some time.

RAIL: 3m

 

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

June 09
ST GERMAINE  EAGLE FARM R2 No.7 (1600m)
SHANGHAI BUND  EAGLE FARM R3 No.8 (1600m)
EXCELLANTES EAGLE FARM R4 No.5 (1000m)
BOBAN EAGLE FARM R5 No.8 (1600m)
QUINTESSENTIAL  EAGLE FARM R6 No.16 (2400m)
WEALTH PRINCESS  EAGLE FARM R7 No.17 (1400m)
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN  EAGLE FARM R8 No.3 (2400m)
SKYTRAIN ROSEHILL R6 No.3 (1100m)
June 11
SHEZAHOTSHOT DOOMBEN R4 No.3 (2000m)
VIKING HEART DOOMBEN R5 No.8 (1110m)
SIGNIFIED DOOMBEN R7 No.6 (1200m)

 

*All prices are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. To get to the tattsbet site simply click on their banner on the right hand side of the page.

 

Race 1: A good quality Listed race to kick off.TINZELDA will be all the talk as she is undefeated. She does look particularly good and she has run time her last couple. The form looks good as the horse she gapped last start CENTREPET come out and won next start. I’m happy to go with DISCREET e/w here. She showed a stack of ability in her first prep including a 3 ½ L win in the Listed Calaway Girl. She should have won first up and getting back to E-F will suit. HOSS AMOR will probably get backed for a stack again but is getting expensive. The drop back to 1200m is a good move. SOOKIE won by 5.8L last start and ran around 6 lengths quicker time than the other 2 yr old maiden on the same day that WRITE CHEEK won. SATURN ROCK is the one that is capable of sharp improvement and should enjoy the open spaces of E-F.

**I think the trifecta can come from the selections below.

On Top: 3-DISCREET e/w

Hardest to Beat: 2-TINZELA, 1-HOSS AMOR, 13-SOOKIE

 

Race 2: Just a fair tempo here with PLAYACTION and SOLZHENITSYN expected to roll forward. SOLZHENITSYN got all the favours last start and will again be hard to beat if Rodd gets a few cheap sectionals in the middle stages. FIREBOLT hasn’t won for a long time and that usually leads me away from them, however he has been terrific his last three runs and last start he made a lot of ground in a slow run race when defeated by SOLZHENITSYN. He has won here before and I think he can turn the tables on the fav. SKYERUSH is a great mare who won the G2 Emancipation (1600m) at Randwick two starts ago which is a great pointer for a race like this. The 59kg is a lot for her to carry, but she has been freshened and a big run would not surprise in the least. ST GERMAINE is the other winning hope in my eyes. She has been going really well without a lot of luck She ran into a heavy track last week which wasn’t suitable and gets a better surface here.

*

On Top: 2-FIREBOLT e/w

Hardest To Beat: 4-SOLZHENITSYN, 7-ST GERMAINE

 

Race 3:  If MENTAL runs here I simply can’t see him being beaten. I do not like tipping short priced fav’s but he just looks too good. He has been outstanding this prep and his run on the unsuitable heavy track last week was full of merit. He ticks every box and there is not much more to add. , BIGGLES, DOUBLE IMPACT, ADAMANTIUM, SHANGHAI BUND and VOLKHERE are the main horses I will be considering for first 4’s, but hard to see them beating MENTAL if he gets even luck (which he should from gate 5)

On Top: 2-MENTAL

 

 

Race 4: Wow, they will go like cut cats here with pace coming from everywhere. 2,6,8,12 are incredibly quick out of the gates, and a couple of them have drawn wide so they will try to cross and add more pressure up front. For that reason I think Browne can take a sit on EXCELLANTES from the bad gate and if he can get any cover he is the one I can see finishing over the top.  He does not want the track any worse than dead, but on that surface he goes on top. NUPTSE has looked a touch disappointing on face value, but she gets the pace on, Lloyd takes the ride and the blinkers the first time may well switch her on. FACILE TIGRE is the class horse and therefore gets 59kg. Barrier 2 gives Rawiller a few options and he’s had 28 days between runs to freshen up. If he hits his best form I think he would simply win, so look for the money trail on Saturday.

*If the track is favouring front runners like last week obviously the leaders here may be more of a chance, so watch the first few races to get a guide. In thinking the track should play better I leaning to the horses taking a sit.

On Top: 5-EXCELLANTES

Hardest To Beat: 1-FACILE TIGRE, 13-NUPTSE

 

Race 5: SIZZLING is the odds on pop and should probably just win if all goes to plan.? I agree to a certain extent but I simply can’t come into him at those odds. He has returned unbeaten this prep and Munce gets gate 3 to help him stay that way. BOBAN is the fresh horse on the scene and at $5 + $1.80 on TattsBet I’m more inclined to have a nibble at him at that quote. He was breathtaking at Doomben and a much bigger Eagle Farm will be far more to his liking! The biggest concern is gate 1 as they would like to get him balanced up and get to the outside in the straight. If they get that scenario he should come like a rocket and he can be the biggest danger to Sizzling. ACADEMUS will appreciate a drier track but hard to see him turning the tables on the fav. He shouldn’t get caught 3 wide for the 3rd run in a row though.. surely? I think the big priced runners for tri’s etc could be TOYDINI and CHOICE BRO.

**Worth noting KABAYAN is a horse I neglected to mention, but it will be up on pace and be in front of the main chances.

*Interesting race. The fav will be heavily supported and I can understand why.

On Top: 8- BOBAN e/w

The obvious one- 1-SIZZLING

 

 

Race 6: Barriers have thrown this wide open! I would have liked a better barrier and a wet track for VATUVEI but I still think he is the one here. His run in the St Leger (2800m) was outstanding. He then had a little freshen up and dropped back to 2200m around the tight Doomben track. He got a slight check at the 550m and lost a length so should have finished closer. He will be better for the run and 2400m around E-F will be more to his liking. BRAMBLES the stable mate led all the way in the Grand Prix 2200m. I’m not sure he will be able to that here but he will push forward and keep himself out of trouble. ZABEELIONAIRE drew best out of the fav’s and Oliver will get some cover midfield. He is coming off the S.A Derby win where he was impressive. It will be a great training performance to peak the horse again here, but he gets the right run to have every chance. WESTSOUTHWEST  was 3rd in that Derby and ran well when winning on returning last week to top him off for this. LUCRIPETOUS is another with a bad gate which may force them to go back again. They were looking to be closer in the run if they got a decent gate. He is a nice horse who was given no chance what so ever at Rosehill where he had 58kg and was near last in a very slow run race. He made a long sustained run and it was full of merit. If he gets some cover I’d expect a very good run. QUINTESSENTIAL is in this up to her ears also. Not sure how they will ride her from the outside gate. Her win was dominant in the Oaks last week and fillies do have a good recent record when taking on the boys in the Derby! I’m sure the plan with TOHUNGA would be to find the front by the winning post the first time and try to turn it into a true staying event. He is a real slogger and I think that would give him his best chance.

LAGGO DA BARRA, RED SHIFT and the fillies INVEST and POST RESTANTE getting back to a decent surface look the others worth thought for first 4’s etc.

On Top: 4-VATUVEI

Hardest To Beat: 1-ZABEELIONAIRE, 16-QUINTESSENTIAL, 9-LUCRIPETOUS

Race 7: What a cracking edition of the Stradbroke! BUFFERING, TIGER TEES, SEA SIREN, CELTIC DANCER all push forward and set a very good tempo up front. BUFFERING is a different proposition this year over the 1400m. He was narrowly beaten over the 1350m last start at WFA after missing work and a race in the lead-up. He was very good day after working early and was by no means ‘hitting a wall’ at the end. Class will take him a long way. You can guarantee he will be right in the fight at the 100m mark and you can’t say that about a lot of the others. SPIRIT OF BOOM is set to run the biggest race of his life and peaks here. I was with Tony Gollan Thursday and he is very happy with all his team. SPIRIT OF BOOM has a great record here where he appreciates the big track. The 1400m and a decent surface suit him perfectly. He drops 5kg from the 10,000 and at $17 he looks enormous value. WEALTH PRINCESS will improve sharply getting back to a better surface and she hasn’t carried 53kg in a long time. SEA SIREN gets the run of the race and she is trying to set all types of records carrying 55kg and attempting to win the ‘big 3’. She can win but find it hard to take her at the $4. I have loved VARENNA MISS preparation. She should have won the T.J Smith G1 two starts ago and Doomben simply didn’t suit her. She gets the blinkers first time and can sit outside horses which she appreciates. TIGER TEES will be in the speed battle and we will know a lot more about him after this. PHELAN READY is a horse I think can run a race at huge odds. The key for him is the drop to 54.5kg as he doesn’t let down as well in the WFA events.

On Top: 1-BUFFERING

Value: 10-SPIRIT OF BOOM

Others: 17-WEALTH PRINCESS – 16-VARENNA MISS

 

Race 8: MAWINGO gets a suck run from gate 5 and is the horse to beat. As long as the track hasn’t had rain through the day he can back up his last start G1 win with a G2 here. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN is flying and only needs luck from gate 19 to be very hard to beat. She blew them away last week and she only has 55.5kg. THE VERMINATOR has had 3 runs back now and will strip a lot fitter into this. Oliver will look to get some cover from the awkward draw and if he does this is a horse who is more than up to a race like this. SCENIC SHOT will be around the money as always. REUBEN PERCIVAL wore down THE VERMINATOR last week but meets that horse 3kg worse off at the weights which makes it a bit tough. If there is any rain around ABSOLUTELY and DANCE WITH HER come right into it. WAZN and SHAMARDASHING are up to this on their day and worth thought in what could be a tricky race to finish the day.

On Top: 2-MAWINGO

Hardest To Beat: 3-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 4-THE VERMINATOR, 12-WAZN

 

 

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets:

Brisbane Race 2 no 2 FIREBOLT e/w

Brisbane Race 3 no 2 MENTAL

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: MASSIVE $288,000 jackpot quadrella on Tattsbet.

1,8 —- 1,2,4,9,16,18 —- 1,6,10,16,17 —- 2,3,4,7,12

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s:

Brisbane Race 6 no 9 LUCRIPETOUS

Brisbane Race 7 no 16 VARENNA MISS

 

******* Mick Sharkie has provided us with a look into a couple of Melbourne races again.

Cheers Shark!

RACE 5 (2.11pm) 1200m Creswick Stakes 3yo SWP Listed
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
NO. 9 LADY MELKSHAM is the top pick based on her rapid improvement each time she has stepped out this prep. Her debut win at maiden level was solid then she jumped grades to tackle 78 raters and won narrowly but impressively. Last week she was upped again to “open” 3yo fillies grade, but that event effectively rated as an 82 raters race. She was totally dominant in that event and quickened brilliantly, but sectionals aside, her sustained speed figures suggest that at this point in time she is probably a Gr 3 grade filly at very least – that level good enough to win this. NO. 2 RIZIZ is the big danger and I will be backing him at huge odds to beat the favourite. Riziz can give the fave a fright here based on times returned in good grade races in Adelaide earlier this year – his closing efforts in the Gr 2 Euclase Stakes and also the Listed Redelva Stakes were enormous. He is a massive price at $26 and it would not shock me if he beats the favourite. NO. 1 ZAMORAR has been disappointing this prep even though he was a last start winner. His rating has dropped a length and a half with me this prep, maybe it’s Caulfield, the track doesn’t suit all horses – for whatever reason he’s not running to the level he can. If he does happen to boost to the form that saw him finish 4th in the Gr 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at this track and distance last spring, he wins – but can we trust him to do that on recent form? NO. 8 ARCTIC FLIGHT will be out in front making her own luck and that aids her cause this week. Form behind older mares in the Listed Proud Miss Stakes measures up well for this level.
TIPS – 9, 2, 1, 8
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 85% (big value through the second rater)
BETTING ADVICE – I will be betting strategically here with a good each-way bet on No. 2 Riziz and a win bet to make a small profit on the favourite Lady Melksham

RACE 7 (3.28pm) 2000m 3yo 0-82 Hcp
Expected Pace – Genuine (every runner will get its chance)
Tricky one – on exposed form there is not a lot of depth here, but the majority of the field is lightly raced meaning that we could have some spike performances without much notice. I have liked the way that NO. 5 BASHAN has been finding the line lately, and he is ready for the test at 2000m. Previous to this run he has been getting a mile out of his ground before rattling home, but last start against older horses at Bendigo he settled closer in a stalking position which gives me confidence that he has the speed to take a position at this trip. He pulled a bit in that race but was still strong to the line which tells me 2000m won’t worry him – assuming he settled close to the pace, he’s a huge chance. NO. 3 TWO SUGARS is highly likely to settle near the speed, but she lacks the turn of foot of some of her rivals here, which means that Melham will probably have to get on his bike early in the straight to pinch a break. She was luckless last start at Caulfield when dragged backwards at a crucial point but she ground to the line rather than really flashing at it. NO. 11 TURNER BAYOU is an improving Zabeel and he might have a bit of a future next campaign. We’re yet to see the blinkers on this bloke, so the fact that he is racing so well tells me that he is a decent sort from this breed. NO. 6 OUTBACK RANGER is the big hype runner in this field after two eye-catching runs at Sandown. He may well win but he is going to stand the on pace runners a big head start in a race that won’t be run at a hectic pace, he’s a risk at anything under $5 in my opinion.
TIPS - 5, 3, 11, 6
CONFIDENCE LEVEL 75% (tricky race, want to be sitting in first 5 – 6)
BETTING ADVICE –
not a race I will be going too hard in, take an each-way bet No. 5 Bashan

 

 

****TATTS MARKET MOVERS

EAGLE FARM

1/2 Tinszelda $3.5 to $3.4

1/12 Splendent Choice $61.0 to $26.0

2/4 Solzhenitsyn $2.8 to $2.6

3/11 Daph N Alf $31.0 to $26.0

4/6 Seek And Find $11.0 to $9.0

4/7 Paprika $11.0 to $10.0

5/10 Kabayan $12.0 to $10.0

7/2 Temple Of Boom $26.0 to $17.0

7/10 Spirit Of Boom $19.0 to $17.0

8/7 Absolutely $16.0 to $13.0

 

ROSEHILL

1/5 Target In Sight $8.5 to $7.0

 

FLEMINGTON

1/7 Montana Man $8.0 to $6.0

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

forSaturday, 9 June 2012

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
QD EAGLE FARM (BR) - $288,834 RACES 5, 6, 7 & 8
         
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
QD ALBION PARK (BT) - $44,928 RACES 2, 3, 4 & 5
TT GLOBE DERBY (AT) - $7,338 RACES 4, 5 & 6
         

 

 

Cheers, hope you have a winning weekend!

 

Gibbo