‘The Punt’ returns to Brisbane!

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The Punt section returns to Brisbane!

Rail +6m, and there are storms predicted so that makes it a tough gig to steer punters into horses a day or too out. The amount of rain we get is a massive factor as Eagle Farm will deteriorate extremely quickly with rain during the meeting. Fingers crossed we don’t end up with another heavy track!

In saying that I think I have found a few that handle all conditions that may be able to help out.

 

Blackbookers: **Tough weekend and probably not the best Blackbook team we have had. They are in very open races and will need luck in running with the big fields.

November 16
ROSEWALL CANTERBURY R5 No.3 (1900m)
November 17
GARUD  SANDOWN HILLSIDE R6 No.5 (2400m)
NEW BEGINNING SANDOWN HILLSIDE R9 No.13 (1500m)
ANGEL OF MERCY SANDOWN HILLSIDE R9 No.6 (1500m)

 

Race 1:

PACE- 2yr olds over 100m, they should scoot along.

 

**Not a race I will be steering you into. Money usually talks in these races so monitor betting.

 

 

ON TOP-    ———

 

Race 2:

PACE-  Should be enough pace to give all horses their chance.

 

‘Danger’ race in my eyes. All the leading hopes and classy horses are looking for further. They may well be able to win this but it is not a perfect scenario for any of them.

ALLTHERIGHTMOVES is going horrible. She is a super mare on her day and I think the step back to 1000m suits her but how forgiving do you have to be?

CUDDLESOME was flying last prep and has just had a 6 week freshen up. That may be enough to see her sprint better than these as she is going places. Not sure I can back her at the $2.80 on offer.

MARTIKA probably the roughie chance in the race being a true 1000m horse and sitting on pace.

JASMINKA well worth following any money trails. First run for a new stable.

*Not keen to be getting too involved.

 

ON TOP-  Can’t see the value in the race and staying out…

 

Race 3:

PACE-   4,8,9,11 all push forward from a tricky starting point which should ensure a decent tempo early.

 

As long as it is dry (good/dead) I’m pretty keen to have something on DODGING EDDIE. Munce can pop him out and get a lovely run midfield without using any petrol. He has had 3 runs back and jumped sharply in trip last time out. He will be a lot better for that run and he gets a suitable tempo here too. He is just over the e/w mark with Tatts and that’s enough to get me in (if dry).

POST RESTANTE is absolutely flying. I don’t often like mares giving weight to the boys and she jumps 7kg on her previous run. It’s not out of her reach but she would have to be extra special to spot some of these that much weight.

SANTO DE LAGO is simply a horse I can’t catch and that’s why I don’t tip it. He is however a proven weight carrier and is going pretty well.

PUTYOURFAITHINME and DANE PRINCESS will be up on pace and worth thoughts for trifecta’s etc.

 

 

ON TOP-     6-DODGING EDDIE e/w  (dry only)

 

Race 4:

PACE-  Big run to the first turn so horses have time to get a position but 1,2,4,6,7,10 are all wanting a position up on pace and I think that can set it up for the horse I like.

 

MARCULOO was one of our early market selections from RadioTab Thursday and I think she looks one of the best each way for the day. Although it’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t come, but she would love a drop of rain. I think E-F is a big plus for her and Hammersley is a good fit. She comes off a hot form race in Syd. Mosse Diva won that race and then run 2nd at Flem. Maidel ran just behind placing’s and then won cup day in Syd. Arinosa ran 2nd and then come out and won at the Flemington carnival. MARCULOO was beaten 5L but was hampered at the 100m and the jockey sat up. She should have been within 1.5L of the winner. That’s good enough for me and $8 is very inviting for a mare on the limit.

If it stays dry JACK’S BACK may be the biggest threat, while SONS OF GOD is in good form, gets a nice run and handles all conditions. If it happened to get very wet SONS OF GOD ‘s chances are elevated even more.

 

 

 

ON TOP-    8- MARCULOO e/w   @ $8

 

 

 

Race 5:

PACE- They let BIGGLES get away with murder up front last start, will they again? I’m sure Munce will sit outside on JET STYLE and make BIGGLES work a bit harder before the turn. KIEV and PREACHER BOY are also rock hard fit now and I think it may actually be run at a fair tempo.

Is BIGGLES back? He looked good the other day but it is always nice to see them string a couple together when they have been out of form. If he gets the easy lead again he will be extremely hard to beat.

JET STYLE and PREACHER BOY look the obvious danger who stalk the pace and get first shot on straightening. A lot to like about both their form lines.

SHEZAHOTSHOT opened at $31 on some betting agencies and that got snapped up. There is no way she should be the outsider of the field and that price has halfed. She has been in work a while and although it is a task 1st up over 1600m she will run well and I will be throwing in my tri’s etc.

PEPPERWOOD is hard to catch but has turned into a swimmer and a heavy track would bring him into it also.

 

 

ON TOP-   2-BIGGLES

Hardest To Beat: 8-PREACHER BOY, 7-JET STYLE

Roughie: 6-SHEZAHOTSHOT

 

 

Race 6:

PACE-  BUFFET will lead as usual and it will be run at a decent tempo.

 

I really don’t want to talk much on this race as so much involes the track conditions at the time.

ROTHERA is lengths better if wet.

BID SPOTTER is lengths better on a dry track.

SAINT ENCOSTA wants it dry and on that surface he would be my selection.

MARKED is also better on a drier track, can handle sting out but not really tested on a true wet surface very often.

BUFFETT runs the same honest race on any surface.

RUN ROYAL RUN is a dry tacker who will improve back on that surface.

**Good luck, but I’d be waiting to see what the weather does.

 

ON TOP-   **Check weather and track conditions and go from there.

 

 

 

 

Race 7:

PACE- 3,4,9 push forward but don’t have to cut at each other. Could well prove to be a race where you want to settle in first half dozen.

 

I have a slight leaning to REQUESTED but wouldn’t go rushing in for a punt. He had a let up and has had 2 runs since. His last effort was very good and Hammersley can get a nice run on pace. He handles all conditions and looks very well placed here to my eye. $8 is about his right price.

EPIC DRAGON has a great 2nd up record and Gollan is doing a great job with his team. Raced some decent types down in Melb and McMahon can lead or get run of the race from gate 2.

BRIBIE- one day he will put it together and look a nice horse but he is hard to catch. It didn’t work out from a wide gate last time, but Browne has worked him out and will get him cover and nurse him as long as possible. When you let him down at the 200m he will sprint and can win.

STRIKE THE TIGER comes out of the same stable and last win was solid.

RAPID LIECA DANE always a massive chance in a race like this but really wants a dry track to let down how he has all this prep. Leading chance just doesn’t want to give away too much start from the gate.

 

 

ON TOP-   9- REQUESTED

Hardest To Beat: 4-EPIC DRAGON, 10-STRIKE THE TIGER

Dry Track- consider—BRIBIE + RAPID LEICA DANE

 

 

Race 8:

PACE- There should be a stack of pace with a capacity field of quality 3 yr olds.

 

Not a race you want to be caught wide in obviously as you may be posted 4-5wide. Far too many chances to go over all so don’t panic if your horse doesn’t get a mention.

Got a lot of time for SALUTER but gate 16 and 59kg means he has to be even better than I think to win this.

REGULAR will be a big improver. Posted wide 1st up and I’d forget it went around. Byrne stays on and it can camp midfield and hit the line hard.

MISHANI STEALTH is promising and gets in well after the claim (53.5kg).

SEEKING MORE gets back to the 1200m which is suitable although I think the $4.40 on offer is skinny for this race.

LUCKY HUSSLER ran good time when toying with them on cup day. Good gate and light weight make him the horse to beat in my mind as we have not got anywhere near the bottom of him. Looks promising.

I also respect SOOKIE, SUBSTATION, MASTERFUL PLAY and DANSAL who had no luck in any runs last prep and has again got gate 20.

I have a soft spot for Masterful Play as he is the last horse I go see when I leave Matt’s stables. He’s a really nice horse with a future but hard to see it getting an easy time from gate 21. Watch for it in a suitable race down the track.

 

 

ON TOP-  19-  LUCKY HUSSLER (if it gets a run)

Others: 2-REGULAR, 6-MISHANI STEALTH, 12- SOOKIE

 

 

 

GIBBO’s Best Bet’s:

Best win bet: Perth Race 7 No.7 ANTIQUE BELLE

Best Each Way:

Melbourne Race 2 No.9 AMARACHI

Brisbane Race 4 No.8 MARCULOO

(Brisbane Race 3 No.6 DODGING EDDIE ***(If track is dry))***

 

**The Brisbane Quadrella will be put up Saturday morning to give me more of an idea on what the track surface will be. It’s very hard to determine at the moment as every forecast is different.

Brisbane Quadrella numbers:

 

2,6,8 —- 2,3,5,7 —– 4,9,10, —- 2,6,7,19

 

 

 

**I feel the best play in Melbourne is actually the TREBLE, so here are the selections.

SANDOWN — TREBLE Numbers:

1.2.3.4.5.8.12  —- 4,5,6,11,14  —– 1,6,8,9,10,12,19

 

 

THE PROPHET’s’ Best bet’s: 

*We don’t often agree but we have both gone for the value in MARCULOO.

Melbourne Race 9 No.6 ANGEL OF MERCY

Brisbane Race 4 No.8 MARCULOO

 

 

TATTS MARKET MOVERS:

EAGLE FARM

8/19 Lucky Hussler (3rd emerg) no price change from $5.5 but is fancied

 

ROSEHILL

5/13 Two Blue $21.0 to $17.0 now $15.0

7/6 Maximus Gladiator $7.0 to $5.5 back to $6.5

 

SANDOWN

3/3 Ibicenco $3.6 to $3.4

6/9 Rawnaq $5.5 to $4.6

7/11 Right To Roam $21 to $15

8/15 Mid Summer Music $6.0 to $5.0 now $4.8

9/6 Angel Of Mercy $7.5 to $5.5 now $4.8

TATTSBET JACKPOTS:

 

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

 

 

 

 

for

Saturday, 17 November 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

TF

SANDOWN (MR)

7

$128,106

SANDOWN GUINEAS

EX

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

8

$12,510

0 – 68 HANDICAP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

MELTON (MT)

5

$2,000

CHRIS HOWE TROTTERS CUP

F4

MELTON (MT)

8

$2,000

GORDON ROTHACKER MEMORIAL C’SHIP FINAL

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$30,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$15,000

C2 TO C3

 

 

 

 

 

 

POOL

VENUE

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

CANNINGTON (PG)

5

$1,000

YOUNG STAR CLASSIC FINAL

 

 

 

 

 

 


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