‘The Punt’ section- 7th Sept

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Let’s get straight down to business! With the small fields I really don’t think it is a great betting day in Brisbane. I have found one I really like and one interstate.

 

Track- EAGLE FARM

Rail-   +3.5Mblackbook

Surface- Should be GOOD 3.

 

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS: (A winner and two 2nds from our three runners Wednesday was ok but a bit of a shame!)

SATURDAY, 7 SEPTEMBER 2013
Heza Bobby Dazzler – Eagle Farm R5 No.5 (1000m):
Bonaria – Flemington R8 No.6 (1400m):
Catkins – Flemington R8 No.8 (1400m):
Sessions – Randwick R3 No.8 (1000m):
Teronado – Randwick R5 No.3 (1400m)

 

Race 1:

SPANISH HALO and ESCOFFIER are the most consistent of the locals and expect them to run well here. ESCOFFIER meets SPANISH HALO 2kg better off here which is significant.

We know the locals take it in turns and for that reason PLATINUM JACK has to be respected as the southern visitor has credentials to win one of these weak staying races.

QUINELLA:  1,2,4

 

 Matt Dunn Racing

Race 2:

Even race. PURE PURRFECTION, WRITE CHEEK, AMALFI DREAMS and JACQUETTA all have legitimate cases.

Happy enough to go with AMALFI DREAMS with the Colless-Dunn combo here. Happy Blinkers are on in a gear change that may switch her on over the 1200m.

PURE PURRFECTION has been running in some good races and I do like the BRIBIE form. I’d expect her to start fav and be hard to beat.

On Top:  5- AMALFI DREAMS

Others:  1- PURE PURRFECTION, 6- JACQUETTA, 3- WRITE CHEEK

 

 

Race 3:

Another small field and tricky race. LISTEN SON will go to the lead and on these hard tracks he can be extremely hard to catch again.

MISHANI WARRIOR steps up in grade but drops 4.5kg on recent efforts and they have been very good. I have a feeling he is more than up to this grade now.

1,3,7 all some hope but this is yet another race I won’t be getting too worried about!

On Top: 2- LISTEN SON

Respecting: 5- MISHANI WARRIOR

 

 

Race 4:

HOLLYWOOD BOUND found it hard to break through but looks a very promising horse now. Really like him here if you can get $3-4.. Nice run behind the speed and should be able to pounce (and run away) from this lot with even luck. Was by far the best run in a leaders dominated race last start. $3.60 on www.tatts.com looks fair.

If it is another ‘leaders day’ BEVICO GIRL can prove a stumbling block now she is well into her prep.

1,2,5,6,8 can go into wide first 4’s where I will be standing H-B out.

On Top:    4- HOLLYWOOD BOUND

 

 

Race 5:

PRUSSIAN HEART rolled the extremely promising Teronado last start and only has to run up to that to be more than competitive here. The wide gate is a slight concern as there is a heap of pace here. That is my query, where does it get to in the run?

TISANI TROMSO is a real speedster and gets in nice after the claim. He looks to get a nice run here and can take some running down.

HEZA BOBBY DAZZLER looked exactly that on debut and he should take natural improvement out of the run. Munce takes the ride.

Best of the rest FRIENDLY DRAGON $7 who will appreciate the speed on and will hit the line hard. Do not sell him short as he could well be the knockout horse late. He meets TISANI TROMSO 2kg better off from their last meeting.

*Hard to split TISANI TROMSO and FRIENDLY DRAGON so heading with the value.

On Top:  4-  FRIENDLY DRAGON  @ $7

 

 

Race 6:

Seriously, I don’t know!

This race looks the lottery of the day. WHITLAM looked a good thing but 59kg and the horror gate has me re-thinking.  He will still be right amongst it but all depends how the track is playing.

Speed galore with horses like WHO WILL drawing wide and likely to gas themselves early. For that reason horse like LITTLE FAVOURS, KUTCHINSKAYA, EASY GAME and DIAMOND TRAIL all get good runs behind the pace to midfield and have to be the ones to beat.

LITTLE FAVOURS and KUTCHINSKAYA ran well in some of the good 3 yr old races last prep and that form has lined up well in this type of race.

EASY GAME and DIAMOND TRAIL were both good last start running 1-2, but EASY GAME meets DIAMOND TRAIL 5kg better off at the weights here.

Any money for JOPA having first run for Heathcote?

*I’ve put LITTLE FAVOURS on top but admit there does not seem much value in her $3.30 quote…

On Top:  6-  LITTLE FAVOURSpineapple

 

 

 

Race 7:

I’ve been a bit disappointed with LITTLE LONG HORN this prep but with the 3kg claim and blinkers going on he may well get me interested again.. Goold will need to get some cover but if he succeeds in that he’s a live chance.

POWERFUL JET has had a great prep but jumps 3.5kg into this which is not a help. MANICERO down in weights could get back to early prep form.

CASTING STONES may get under a few guards but his run in a harder event last time out was more than solid enough and he will run well.

WISH UPON A STAR led and won a leaders bias race last time out, FLYING FUJI can be forgiven for her run in the same race, she meets W-U-A-S 1kg better, blinkers first time and gets Munce on top.

ARCTIC, BIG DECISION and ELLYTHEA would all be leading chances if not for their horror gates… They can run ok but will need a lot of luck.

*One more chance LITTLE LONG HORN

On Top:  4- LITTLE LONG HORN

 Malua Stables

 

 

Race 8:

I’ve had people knock me everywhere for tipping QFIGHTER $3.80 but he simply has a pattern where if he draws poor or gets a ‘leaders’ track it’s near impossible. Again here I say proceed with caution and make sure the track is playing that you can swoop. He loves hard ground and doesn’t have to go back to last from the good gate. Add to that the claim for Harrison and he does look very hard to beat.

One of very few horses who could sprint as good as him is ARADO with Munce on board. He can really let down quickly when asked. Around $8.50 is alright.

ALL MY ANGELS is in good form but will take a Colless special from gate 17..

On Top:  12- QFIGHTER

Hardest To Beat: 3- ARADO

 

 

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Brisbane Race 4 No. 4-  HOLLYWOOD BOUND

Best each-way bets are interstate, and really like their chances!

Sydney Race 2 No.2-  GANGSTER’S CHOICE   @ $9 on Tatts.

Sydney Race 5 No.3 – TERONADO  $7, but $10 was bet.

 

BRISBANE QUADRELLA:

1,2,4,5 —– 1,4,5,6 —– 4,5,7,9,12, —– 3,12       guide   $50  =  31%

 

*Those chasing a very wide roughie- Melbourne Race 4 No.12 SHOREHAM worth some thought at $31

 

THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Sydney Race 5 No.3 – TERONADO

Sydney Race 6 No.8 – FAWKNER

Melbourne Race 5 No.12 – IL CAVALLO

 

 Tatts Double Trio

tattsbet

 

 

TATTS JACKPOTS  + MARKET MOVERS and my DOUBLE TRIO NUMBERS

NOTE: Additionally tomorrow marks week 1 of this month’s $100,000 Double Trio in-store giveaway promo. The mechanics work like this. From 2pm to 3pm Eastern $25,000 in Double Trio bets will be sold on the house for each of the 4 Saturdays in Sep. To participate customers need to go in-store, that is any TattsBet venue (Inc. PubTABs & ClubTABs) between 2pm and 3pm take a Double Trio on Flemington 7 & 8 tomorrow and they may end up getting your bet for free.

Double Trio (Melb race 7 + 8)

2,3,5,6,8,12  —– 2,4,6,9,13,16

 

Market Movers: Some big results lately!

EAGLE FARM

8/3 Arado $8.5/$7.0

8/16 Red Hot Dazzler $26/$20

RANDWICK

NOTHING OF NOTE TO REPORTTatts Twist

FLEMINGTON

3/9 Desert Jeuney $4.8/$4.4

5/2 Safeguard $6.5/$5.0

6/6 Sea Moon $7.5/$5.5

7/3 Rebel Dane $2.9/$2.5

8/2 Dear Demi $10/$9

 

JACKPOTS..

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

for

Saturday, 7 September 2013

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

EAGLE FARM (BR)

ALL

$5,000

RACES 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

F4

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

ALL

$5,000

RACES 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

TF

RANDWICK (SR)

7

$123,768

CHELMSFORD STAKES

T2

FLEMINGTON (MR)

-

$13,419

RACES 7 & 8

TT

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)

-

$16,232

RACES 6, 7 & 8

 

POOL

VENUE (CODE)

RACE

CARRYOVER

RACE NAME

F4

ALBION PARK (BT)

2

$5,000

RISING STARS C’SHIP FINAL

TF

ALBION PARK (BT)

1

$9,000

M1 ONLY

TF

GLOBE DERBY (AT)

1

$9,000

C1 TO C2 FINAL