‘The Punt’ Tatts Mile day

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From a soggy Doomben to a soggy Eagle Farm. I have had a more than enough sooks about the Eagle farm surface, so all I will say is I hope the rating is correct and I hope the leader bias disappears.  There have been rumbling by punters and other good judges that they felt the track ratings have been better or upgraded  when they were actually worse? I haven’t been there so it is hard to judge, but you’d hope that wasn’t the case. All I do know is Racing Queensland MUST make the Eagle Farm upgrade (rip it up and start again) a priority…

 

Now on to this weekend’s card! I feel the way to make money today is to get the money early and then leave the 2nd half of the card alone….

BLACKBOOKERS are at the bottom of the article..

 

*”The Punt’ is simply a look at the Brisbane card through my eyes. You are free to do what you like with the free information given.

*All prices quoted are TATTSBET prices at time of typing. For the latest odds head to

www.tatts.com  – You can also get their new ‘APP’ from the site.

NOTE: I am looking at starting a mini ‘punt’ section on a Wednesday. Depending on what the dayis like it may be a paragraph with no mail, or it could have a bit of mail and quaddie selections, so check in if that interests you midweek.

 

Race 1: A bit of a match race to kick the day off. WARRIOR WITHIN is probably a better stayer than RACING HEART, but the latter gets a lot in his favour here. It will be a genuine wet track, he is rock hard fit and on the back up which is a great sign from the stable.  I have to stick with RACING HEART on that account as this track will not improve and his record at the track is exceptional.

WARRIOR WITHIN will make a fight of it and the claim for both horses is very clever.

On Top: 1-RACING HEART

Hardest To Beat: 2-WARRIOR WITHIN

 

Race 2: I spelled out the reasons I like THE SIXTIES in the early market article. There is not much pace, he sits up front and carries 53.5kg after the claim. He handles all conditions and it took Adnocon to roll him last start. Think he is a nice e/w bet.

THE RINGMASTER  is a damn good horse and is superior when they ride him to chase. His 2nd up record is inferior to his 1st up record and that is the only query.

CRAIGLEE FALCON, DALZAR (SCR) and JOINT CHEIFS are all capable on their day but will be giving away a start. HIDDEN KISSES was really good last start and just wants the track to dry a bit. HOW MUCH MY LOVE (SCR)wasn’t far from THE SIXTIES at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago.

On Top: 4-THE SIXTIES

Hardest to Beat: 3-THE RINGMASTER

 

Race 3: Good quality 2 year old race. FANTISHA gets blinkers 1st time and meets DISCREET 2kg better at the weights for its defeat last time. She was also 1100m-1400m second up and three weeks between runs there. The step to 1500m is perfect.

DISCREET is the obvious danger.

FUSIL DE EVE loves the wet and was a good winner last start. My question is ON THE DECK ran very well in that race and was well beaten at Grafton?

ROYAL JESTER (SCR) took on the older horses in the $100k maiden and nearly saluted. It has been knocking on the door and is a place chance.

On Top: 8-FANTISHA e/w

Hardest To Beat: 1-DISCREET, 2-FUSIL DE EVE

 

Race 4: After the claim for Anthony Allen DIVINE CITY only carries 56kg, but that is 2.5kg up on what she carried to victory last start. She would also rather a drier track than she will get. Don’t get me wrong, she is the one to beat, but we may be ask to take odds that are too short.

VENTURE ON has been consistent and a replica run of the day he ran 2nd to Mental would have him winning this.

GOLDSTICK is simply a ‘mudder’ and if conditions suit he can win.

SKATER DUDE interests me. He ran some nice races last prep and has had two decent races this time back. I’d expect him to be up to the mark here and a chance to cause an upset at odds.

SOMEDAY(SCR) and LIGHTNING VAULT the best of the rest in what is a tricky race once you get away from the favourite.

On Top: 1-DIVINE CITY

Some value for exotics: 3,7,8

 

 

Race 5: BLACK MAGIC has ordinary barrier manners and it can be costly. I thought it would come up shorter than the $4.60 on Tatts, so at that price I will have something on. She has the ability to really put a field like this away one day and just needs things to go her way. Her run was great a fortnight ago when she missed the kick and stormed late is a good pointer here.

REVITALISE beat her home on that occasion and David Murphy has him flying. He will handle the wet track being by Bel Esprit out of a Danewin mare.

NOISY OCEAN has been taking on the older horses and running well. Don’t sell him short dropping back to 3yr old company.

TYPHOON RED and IKING have some hope in an even race.

On Top: 8-BLACK MAGIC e/w

Hardest To Beat: 4-REVITALISE, 1-NOISY OCEAN

 

Race 6: Decent tempo here and it looks a doozy to kick the quaddie off. I won’t be betting here, simply trying to jag first leg of the quad.

CHORAL has been racing well and does handle all track conditions. Should get a good run just behind the speed and thew 3kg claim is a big plus.

STARSTREAMED (SCR)gets the blinkers first time and has run a decent race or two in town. If the blinkers do the trick he can win.  IBALANCE and DARSHAN JOH are Northern rivers horses and that form is hard to match up, but I wouldn’t sell them short. JAVELENTIA (SCR) takes on the older horses but has more scope than most.

*Seriously could go on and on as it is very even….. Simply have CHORAL on top as it is the most consistent.

On Top: 1-CHORAL

 

Race 7: FIRE UP FIFI has taken it all before her this prep and is hard to knock. In saying that she has a few things against her here. She goes up 3.5kg + up 330m. That is a task.

CASH’N’STYLE was impressive last week albeit in a small field. He can be a player. ANGUSROY was a good winner this trk/trip a fortnight ago and gets conditions to suit again.

EUREKA JACK (NOW SCRATCHED)is the horse I see as the value in the race and as long as the leader bias disappears?? He can run over them on the soft track with a light weight.

On Top- 1-FIRE UP FIFI

Others:  6-ANGUSROY, 2-CASH’N’STYLE

 

Race 8: Many feel this is a two or three horse race… I believe there is a forgotten horse who is worth throwing into quaddies, tri’s etc. TOPPING will be somewhere on pace in a slowly run race on a wet surface he thrives on. The three other main chances have slight queries on the wet, while this bloke is peaking now (also won 3rd up last prep) he is flying for new stable and when the going gets tough he will run the wet 1600m out strong. He is $15 on Tatts at the moment.

BELLTONE obviously the one to beat coming off two strong Listed wins. ADNOCON is full of class and also comes off a Listed win, while CARRY ME BLUEY got back to his best with a win over this trip in the Sth Grafton Cup.

‘Overs’: 6-TOPPING

Obvious three: 1-BELLTONE, 2-ADNOCON, 4-CARRY ME BLUEY

 

Race 9: Throw a dart!!

Seriously there are too many to go over again. SATCH (SCR) is gelded coming into this and his 1st up run last time was very good. He can win this at double figure odds without surprising.

MISS BARWANG with Browne on gets my nod here and I’m simply forgiving her last run on the bottomless Sunny coast track. Her previous form and her fitness levels puts her right in this.

TANAH LOT comes up from Vic and has a bit of class on most of the locals.

CORONER is fancied by ‘The Prophet’ and stable mate SHADOW BUSTER also has claims. KAROO and IZACAT probably the best of the rest, but you couldn’t knock anyone going ‘field’ in last leg of quaddie.

On Top: 6-MISS BARWANG

Hardest To Beat: 3-TANAH LOT, 2-IZACAT

 

Gibbo’s Best Bets: All around the e/w mark this week.

Melbourne Race 6 No 11 FUTURE SOLUTION

Brisbane Race 2 No 4 THE SIXTIES ew.

Brisbane Race 3 No 8 FANTISHA e/w

 

BRISBANE Quaddie Selections: ***Check in after 8.30am Saturday for final selections**

1,2,4,5,10 —– 1,2,6 —- 1,2,4,6 —- 2,3,5,6,7,8

 

 

 

“The Prophet’s” Best Bet’s: One in each state for the punters this week.

Brisbane Race 9 No 5 CORONER e/w

Sydney Race 7 No 4 KELINNI

Melbourne Race 8 No 4 ROLLERBALL

 

 

 

 

This week TATTSBET again have some jackpots for us to sink our teeth into!

JACKPOT ALLOCATION

forSaturday, 21 July 2012

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 EAGLE FARM (BR) 8 $125,000 TATTERSALL’S MILE
F4 FLEMINGTON (MR) 6 $125,000 OPEN HANDICAP
         

 

 

 

POOL VENUE RACE CARRYOVER RACE NAME
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 4 $2,000 COUNTRY CUP FINAL
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 6 $2,000 SUNSHINE SPRINT
F4 ALBION PARK (BT) 7 $2,000 QUEENSLAND DERBY
F4 MENANGLE (ST) 5 $2,000 WINTER CUP
EX GLOBE DERBY (AT) 1 $6,675 C1 TO C2

 *****TATTSBET MARKET MOVERS*****

EAGLE FARM

5/4 Revitalise $6.0 to $5.0

6/10 Bilt Leica $8.0 to $6.5

ROSEHILL

1/8 Art Thou Ready $11.0 to $9.5

2/5 Natch Catch $8.0 to $7.0

7/4 Kelinni $3.1 to $2.9

 

FLEMINGTON

4/3 Instalment $3.4 to $2.7

5/2 Let’s Be Happy $15.0 to $14.0

6/11 Future Solution $4.6 to $4.0

7/7 Night War $7.0 to $6.5


 

 

On the BLACKBOOKERS we better check out our stable this week:

July 21
RACING HEART EAGLE FARM R1 No.1 (2200m)
HIDDEN KISSES EAGLE FARM R2 No.10 (1200m)
FANTISHA EAGLE FARM R3 No.8 (1500m)
REVITALISE EAGLE FARM R5 No.4 (1500m)
BLACK MAGIC EAGLE FARM R5 No.8 (1500m)
TOPPING EAGLE FARM R8 No.6 (1600m)
THE LONG ROAD FLEMINGTON R5 No.6 (1400m)
MAROTTA FLEMINGTON R5 No.8 (1400m)

 

Hopefully ‘The Punt’ guide has been a welcome tool for you guys when doing your form for the weekend, and let’s hope that continues this weekend. Of course it is impossible to get over everything on the site, but if you have feedback simply click on the ‘contact gibbo’ link at the top of the site to touch base with me.

Good luck if you have a bet on the weekend!

Gibbo