Two state ‘The Punt’ section (Flemington + Doomben)

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Matt Dunn Racing

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HAS BEEN UPDATED: 9:30. Good luck

 

With bog tracks around Brisbane and wasting a heap of time around the wet tracks I will simply go over the Quadrella legs in Brisbane + Melbourne this week.

*Prices are TATTS prices at time of typing.

*Blackbook runners:blackbook

March 09
BLACK MAGIC DOOMBEN R2 No.9 (1010m) : Wet track?
CONGO DOOMBEN R4 No.1 (1600m) Wet track?
CARMORA DOOMBEN R4 No.2 (1600m) : Should win.
CALLANISH  FLEMINGTON R4 No.6 (1600m) : On the back-up and hard to beat.
MOMENT OF CHANGE FLEMINGTON R6 No.2 (1200m) : Deserved fav with Black Caviar form!
PERFECTLY STUNNING  FLEMINGTON R8 No.12 (1600m) : Step up in grade but will run well.
HI BELLE FLEMINGTON R8 No.3 (1600m) : Super first up, can be competitive..

 

 

Lets kick off with the Brisbane Preview:

Track-  DOOMBEN

Rating-  (I have done this on a slow to heavy rating) **Check in after 9.30 QLD Saturday for update.

Rail-  +1M

 

Race 6:

Don’t like the race at all. A few of the main chances went around Wednesday and have to be a big question to back up. If those horses’ come out as predicted this is a ‘field’ job in the quddie for mine.

*Very few with wet track form and not keen to put one on top.

 

 

Race 7:

Three main chances in my mind.

BYMONASHE $9 was an early mail selection in my interview with Steve Hewlett on RadioTab, here are the comments-

 

SHOW AFFECTION was incredible last start, can she reproduce that? Possibly but $3.50 doesn’t tempt me on the likely heavy surface. Her biggest concern is gate 2 where she may get cramped up and need a lot of luck in the straight.

TOP OF THE ROCK has missed a run or two from meetings being lost which could be a concern but she is a swimmer and should be respected.

DUSTY GOLD, EPIC and PLAYITSTRAIGHT can all pop up on their day but have gone with the earlier mentioned horses.

On Top: 14- BYMONASHEE e/w

Next Best: 4- SHOW AFFECTION, 10- TOP OF THE ROCK

 

 

Race 8:

DISCREET is definitely the best horse in this race. Gate 18 (probably jump from 14) a query? Maybe but class will take her a long way.

GENERAL JACKSON is bred to get through the ground and Stewart can keep him out of early trouble from the gate.

TRAKSTAR also unknown on the heavy but I would suggest it may well play into his hands. Watch for any money.

HEADLESS looks to have improved lengths this prep and should be hitting the line hard late.

LITTLE FAVORS won at big odds last start and jumps in weight but hard to knock.

SIR KNOX was very impressive against a far weaker lot last start. I really liked his last 50m where he attacked the line. Hellyer can produce him late and I have him on top at $12 on Tatts. He ran the exact same time as the Benchmark 75 on the same day which is a fair pointer (and that horse also won by 3.5L).

I warned people that $5 was far too short for CALDETES last start and the $16 tats have him at now is about right here. He has a tongue tie on, the blinkers stay on also. I will be having something on as we own him and believe he goes good, but we really just want to see him attack the line.

Heathcote found the winners stall with PUNTERS PRIDE last start and it may well go on with it?

 

On Top: 11- SIR KNOX

Others: 1- GENERAL JACKSON, 8- HEADLESS, 7- CALDETES

 

 

Race 9:

Who has a dartboard??

Seriously tough race to assess. The amount of scratching will dictate the pace etc which makes it impossible. I will just give you the main players.

Edmonds stable is in good form and EMVOSS (SCRATCHED)is capable here. Great 2nd up record and has run well on the wet before.

FITNESS FANATIC has an ordinary wet track record but is going extremely well. SCRATCHED

LOUPETS looks for the hat-trick from the outside gate but will push forward anyway.

The mares ALCANCIA and GATINEAU RIVER must go in with decent wet track stats and both are racing in career best form. ALCANCIA carries 51kg after the claim for Schmidt and is the one to beat.

TIME TO PLUNDER looked just ok on QLD debut. Improves from the run (most likely) but Cahill stays on which may be the best pointer to its chances.

Blowout horse may be CHANDRA $21 who’s run I liked first up. By a wet track sire and Dann knows how to pick a city win off!

*This is a doozy to finish off!

 

On Top:  18- ALCANCIA

Others- (keen to see how track is playing by this stage)

 

********BRISBANE QUADRELLA numbers:******

1,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,14 —– 4,14 —– 1,7,8,11 —– 10,12,15,17,18      $72 = 20%

 

 

MELBOURNE PREVIEWFlemington

Rail:  TRUE

Rating- (probably Dead 4 and improve to Good 3.)

 

Race 6:

The best sprint race in Australia- THE NEWMARKET.

I actually think it is a little weaker than it could be. (Buffering, Rain Affair and co. would be nice)

I think you go MOMENT OF CHANGE or wide. Any horse that has gone close to Black Caviar has gone on to brain the opposition in other races. There is no better form than BC form! His lightning run was very very good.

BETTER THAN READY is an outstanding colt and I have no doubt he is a group 1 horse. Ran a track record last prep at Randwick and gets in here with 50.5kg.

SPIRIT OF BOOM loves the Flemington straight, Gollan is pleased with him  and he was the best run behind the winner in the Oakleigh plate. He is the best roughie.

BARAKEY and LUCKYGRAY come from the West and both can win, however they do have a task ahead. BARAKEY missed a vital lead up run while LUCKGRAY would rather 1400m, but can’t knock them.

I have SHAMEXPRESS as the next best after a good Flemington jumpout during the week and FONTELINA who flies fresh.

 

On Top: 2- MOMENT OF CHANGE

Next Best: 13- BETTER THAN READY, 6- SPIRIT OF BOOM, 5- BARAKEY

 

 

Race 7:

A true run Australian cup which should give each horse their chance!

GLASS HARMONIUM and FIVEANDAHALFSTAR should set a fair tempo. GREEN MOON and SUPER COOL get very nice runs in transit and that’s just one of the reasons they are the market leaders. No doubt this is right up GREEN MOON’s ally and he will improve lengths getting to 2000m.

SUPER COOL and FIVEANDAHALFSTAR have very little between them and both are big players. The biggest task for FIVEANDAHALFSTAR is to have to deal with the older, tougher GLASS HARMONIUM who excels at Flemington and over the 2000m.

I’m just not sure they can all improve enough to beat MR MOET? My only concern is that they may get too far back on him. Surely they can be in front of a handful here and within striking distance of the favourites. That is the key, if he is in the right spot on the corner he can be very strong late.

TANBY the potential blowout horse who gets a good run behind the speed and always improves 2nd up.

*Warming to GLASS HARMONIUM at a bit of value for tri’s etc

 

On Top: 4- MR MOET

Next Best: 13- SUPER COOL, 1- GREEN MOON, 3- GLASS HARMONIUM

‘Roughie’- 5-TANBY

 

 

 

Race 8:

Widest leg of the quad for mine. Some underrated horses down the bottom with good chances.

SPIRIT SONG is a true group mare and was good 1st up. Has a great 2nd up record (last prep close 2nd in a G2). HI BELLE was in the same race 1st up and hit the line incredible. Mixed her form last prep but that run may have her back on track.

STORM BURST is the horse I thought was value around the $10 mark and off a nice run 2nd up where she ran up the back of some good horses late. The firm track is the only query as she rathers the sting out, but it won’t be any firmer than it was at Caulfield last start (I wouldn’t think).

PERFECTLY STUNNING was exactly that last run in an easier race. She drops 3kg on the win and has earned a crack at these.

EPINGLE was 3rd in that race and Flemington will suit.

THORN STAR and CRIMSON LADY have form around each other and are good priced chances here. I like CRIMSON LADY a touch more and like Symons taking the ride.

 

On Top: 7- STORM BURST

Hardest To Beat: 1- SPIRIT SONG, 12- PERFECTLY STUNNING, 15- CRIMSON LADY

 

 

Race 9:

Two genuine Group1/2 horses in this race- FAWKNER and CHASE THE RAINBOW. BOTH SCRATCHED!!

FAWKNER took all before him last prep with three straight wins and then a nose 2nd in the Group 1 Emirates at his last start. He gets a great run around 6th here and will be extremely hard to hold off late.

CHASE THE RAINBOW is a beauty who has had a heap of issues. His last comeback resulted in a 3L hiding of a good field. Newitt is flying at present and if this horse is at his best he could also give them a hiding here. (Hore-Lacy has said it will most likely be scratched)

There are three leaders who get it ok up front- SHEILA’S STAR + STAR OF GISELLE + BRITISH GENERAL. I feel STAR OF GISELLE may well be the best of them. She was good winning a G3 first up against fillies and mares. She does drop 2.5kg here but takes on a couple of very good boys!

SHEILAS STAR a genuine chance.

BRITISH GENERAL is going well. You will get a guide on his form earlier in the day after Callanish runs.

*confident winner should come from these two

On Top:
5- STAR OF GISELLE + 10- BRITISH GENERAL

 

 

 

 

*************   MELBOURNE Quadrella:  ************

2 —- 1,3,4,5,6,12,13 —– 1,3,7,12,13,15 —— 5,10             $84  =  100%

(If Chase The Rainbow is out of the last it will just be a touch cheaper)

Horse shoe

GIBBOS BEST BETS:

Best e/w – Brisbane Race 7 No.14 BYMONASHEE @$9

This weeks best ‘Roughie’-

Brisbane Race 8 No.11 SIR KNOX @$12  (not massive odds but good enough!)

 

 

 

 

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST BETS:

Melbourne Race 2 No.4 ANGELIC LIGHT

Melbourne Race 3 No.5 RUTHERGLEN

 

TattsBet

TATTS MARKET MOVERS:

DOOMBEN

1/5 Agitate $11.0/$10.0

 

WARWICK FARM

1/3 Charleston Lady $14/$12

2/2 Va Pensiero $8.0/$6.0

 

FLEMINGTON

1/1 Bulbula $5.5/$4.8

3/6 Weinholt $5.5/$4.8

4/1 Puissance De Lune $5.0/$4.6

7/13 Super Cool $6.0/$4.4

8/12 Perfectly Stunning $7.0/$6.0

 

 

*Thanks for checking in again guys and girls. Please feel free to send a link to a mate if they enjoy the races, or print off ‘The Punt’ for a mate if you head to the track or pub.

Most importantly, good luck if you have a punt on the weekend!