Weekend Selections

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I’ve put a line through QLD racing as I feel they will be washed out and it would be a waste of time, instead I’ve focused on where I think we have a chance of making a profit. It’s never easy taking on form from outside your area when you are doing that full time but hoping to back up a good weekend from last Saturday.

Have tried to find as much value as possible, good luck everyone!

(May be updated before Saturday morning so be sure to check back in)

*Feel free to share with any mates going to the races or pub by link/text/email*

 

The Race club

 

 

Randwick Race 2:

The $100,000 highway and they have got a good field together. Not sure the prep has gone to plan with TRISTAN DE ANGEL but all looks back on track after a good run at Ipswich where he sat last in a slow run race and was the best late to run 3rd. On the back up and onto the bigger surrounds of Randwick suit, he looks value to me around $8.

VELARO has got a terrific record for the Crockett camp and the fresh run would have just topped him off for this race. Went through the grades nicely last prep and hard to beat.

AVE is a live hope and Eleanor Webster-Hawes keeps the ride on the big day. Likes to find her feet and spot a start in her races but she has got a big finish and 2nd up out to 1400m on the big track are all ticks, live hope for sure.

MAJESTIC PEDRILLE the best of the rest.

*On Top:  11-TRISTAN DE ANGEL $8

Hardest To Beat:  14-AVE  $11,  9-VELARO,

 

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Caulfield Race 2:

Leaning to the Sydney form here and DUCA VALENTINOIS who drops significantly in grade. The recipe worked for Eckstein last week, not as keen on this bloke as I was her but I’m sure he runs a race. The second up run behind Siege Of Quebec and Pierata was excellent, he then went to the Epsom and although beaten a long way it was a top shelf G1 and he was the widest in the straight. Goes from Group racing to Listed level which is like going from the AFL to VFL or the NRL to QCup. Hoping JMAC lands midfield from the good gate, no need to get any further back and an e/w bet for mine.

FIERCE IMPACT comes out of bm88 race but he has been good in all Australian runs and does look progressive, if they go hard enough he can sprint hard late.

SIRCCONI looks the best of the on speed runners. Is this on speed as it has been over the carnival the last few years? Was brave fresh and can be the one they have to run down at the 100m again.

No idea how to line up the fav and other Godolphin runner COMICAS.

On Top: 2-DUCA VALENTINOIS e/w $8

Hardest To Beat: 8-SIRCCONI,

 

Lad one two

 

Caulfield Race 4:

Might not get too involved here as it is a very open race but might be a couple at odds for exotics.

The obvious here are WINTER BRIDE and COOL PASSION. WINTER BRIDE comes off very good QLD form and then gave them a beating in the G3 How Now. She gets gate 8 and can sit midfield with cover. Only has to run up to that effort again and deserves to be fav.

COOL PASSION was extremely good and consistent at Group level this time of year (won this race) and after a long break she returned in a bm88 carrying 61.5kg and was brave running third. Drops 4.5kg, gets a senior jock on, gets gate 1 and hasn’t missed a place in four 2nd up attempts.

Now for the value, a couple of emergencies looking to get a run. DAWN DAWN in in the Hawkes camp and liked the way she progressed last time in work. Not a lot of luck in her Melb run but finished the prep with a dominant win, albeit in bm76 grade. At $20 she goes in my trifecta’s. The other is PETRELLE for Archie Alexander, she is 2/2 in her short career but she has great natural speed and leads in her races but her strength is the kick she can give on the corner and both wins have looked very classy. A jump in grade like this is usually too big of a hurdle but she looks above average. (If she doesn’t run here she is in race 7 Adelaide!)

On Top:  3-WINTER BRIDE $4 

Next Best: 2-COOL PASSION,  17-DAWN DAWN $21

 

 

Caulfield Race 5:

Really hot tempo here with speed inside and out. Looking for those who can get decent runs off the speed. The only issue with that is getting luck at the right time around this track.

VOODOO LAD has had 7 starts this track for 4 wins and 3 placings. 6 starts this distance for 5 wins and a placing. The horse is in good form and comes off a freshen. Even with the good tempo you’d like Rawiller to land in front of two or three horses settling and should be able to be the strongest late.

Never really been in the corner of SAVANNA AMOUR but when I have been she has won so hope that continues. Forgive the fresh run in the G1 Moir where she was stopped in her tracks. From gate 3 she might try and find the back of Snitty Kitty but more likely to land midfield. Will need luck on the corner but looks some value at $12.

No idea what to make of the internationals, impossible to line up.

Feel HAVASAY is over the odds at $51 and may be bigger odds on the day. He isn’t proven at this level but will enjoy the hectic tempo and not the worst in the race.

On Top:  12-SAVANNA AMOUR $12  +++   2-VOODOO LAD

 


Neds 250 300

 

 

Caulfield Race 6:

I am a massive fan of SMART MELODY and if she were mine I’d go to the Coolmore and win. Not sure but maybe stablemate Graff is going there and it would make him as a stallion if he won, may not have anything to do with it but feel SMART MELODY has a big question at 1600m even if she is clearly the best filly in the race. She may well race on speed and blow them away but i’m not with her this week.

Issue is what beats her? Not so easy.

Feel EL DORADO DREAMING was very good fresh and sure to strip a lot  fitter from that run. Out to 1600m also a plus and a good gate to sit midfield works perfectly. Took ground off the fav late last start and all points to her getting a lot closer again here.

THRILLSTER had a tough run but was exactly that late, tough! Kept making ground to the line and has to be a hope here.

SEABROOK got the thumps last start so put a line through that, she had run the quickest split between the 600-400 before stopping there. Blinkers on and just needs some luck from the awkward gate to improve sharply at $26.

FIESTA was great in the G1 Flight where beaten a nose by Oohood. Gets a sit behind the leaders and every chance around this track.

*Tough race!

On Top:  1-EL DORADO DREAMING $7.50

Hardest To Beat: 3-SEABROOK $26,  2-FIESTA,  5-SMART MELODY

 

 

Caulfield Race 7- THE TOORAK

Doesn’t get any easier here!

SHILLELAGH is one of the more frustrating types around because of her get back pattern, she needs luck and constantly has the flashing light on late. This time in again she has been good but the run in the G1 Epsom was outstanding. She was off the bit on the corner but ran the 2nd fastest 600-400 split, the 2nd fastest 400-200m split and then the fastest last 200m home. She is airborne and will be flashing late again.

Feel that SIEGE OF QUEBEC is a bit of a victim of the Waterhouse way of things and being ridden positively doesn’t leave him anything in the tank to finish off. The day they gave him a sit he ran over the top of Pierata and looked good. There is a heap of speed outside him so they can still come out positive and land 5-6-7th with a perfect run. That’s his best chance but worried they will do their handlebars down trick they usually do.

Just concerned with gate 2 for NOIRE as she will get back and need a heap of luck at the right time to not get bottled up.

*Many other winning hopes but win bets those two for me and a small lean to The Waller mare over Waterhouse horse because of the question as to how they ride.

On Top:  4-SHILLELAGH $7

Hardest To Beat: 11-SIEGE OF QUEBEC $12

 

 

Adelaide Race 7 No.12- PETRELLE $3.80

For obvious reasons, gave her a chance in a much harder race in Melbourne so if she runs here I’m more than keen to take the $3.80, At the weights with her rating it goes against most punting rules, I just think she is a very nice horse who will end up in better races.

 

SYDNEY Race 9 No.5- ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN $5.50

It’s now or never for this bloke, gets out to a trip that suits, on a surface that sits. Has built into this prep nicely and gets his chance. Might back on the e/w line, should be around the money.

 

 

CAULFIELD GUINEAS preview http://www.brissyraces.com.au/caulfield-guineas-preview-2018/

 

 

GIBBOS BEST:

Adelaide Race 7 No.12- PETRELLE $3.80

Best e/w

Caulfield Race 2 No.2-DUCA VALENTINOIS $8

The ‘Hail mary’ roughie: Caulfield Race 6 No.3-SEABROOK $26

‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Sydney Race 6 No.1-CLEARLY INNOCENT

 

NEDS Card sq