Weetwood day on ‘The Punt’

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Big day up the range!

Not a track I have a lot of luck at and it’s a track where it’s extremely hard to beat the locals.

Fine weather and the rail is in the TRUE position, shapes as great conditions for racing.

*Not that keen on the day but a few bets throughout.

PREVIEW WILL BE UPDATED SATURDAY MORNING

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Race 1:

Big fan of GEM OF SCOTLAND, has a beautiful big action and getting out in trip is only a positive. Has won over the 800 and 900m and was dominant with the tempo in her favour last start.

What do you do with the Currie first starter? Not seen in trials but was $9 into $3 Wednesday.

Liked the debut win of BOLD EOS, dominant on debut and from the good gate I’d expect her to be in the first few pairs and hard to beat.

DEVIL’S MARBLES, EMBATTLED and MAGIC PALACE all chances of landing in the money in a handy two yr old race.

On Top: 2-GEM OF SCOTLAND $4

Hardest To Beat: 7-11-1-8

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Race 2:

LIGHT UP THE ROOM is the best horse in this race but she has 58.5kg against the older horses, a wide gate and 1300m fresh. She is either more forward than I think or she has to run to kick her campaign off for the winter because Gollan wouldn’t usually run, those scenario’s would make sense though. UPDATE, a few underneath have scratched, winning hope now.

Feel BOILING $31 is going better than it reads, no luck two back and was then good last start with 60kg on a bog track. Drops 5kg and although she will need luck I’ve had a very small play at the $31.

BEQUEATHED was smashed when markets first opened and CRUSHER is a winner so expecting both to run well on their home track.

Roughie: 9-BOILING $31

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Race 3:

After scratchings WANT TO BOLT can lead these for a long way. Been in super form since heading north and only better with Lloyd on top!.

BEACON in good form and only query is if they keep pushing on and if they get cover.

Thought REAL EGO might have been worth a penny on at the $34, forgiving last start flop and if they hold a spot in the running he can run better than odds suggests.

Numbers: 13-15-4

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Race 4:

SPIRIT’S CHOICE is the horse to beat here even though there is a very hot speed expected. She has the speed to lead them all and if she does find the fence she will be very hard to catch. Went extremely fast last start in the ‘jewel’ and kept going.

SHAMURT $10 looks some value here. She won this day last year and did win races as a 2yr old so paid the price last prep carrying big weights against good 3yr olds. She got a few bad gates and things just didn’t pan out but she was still running well. Liked her recent trial and if she is ready to go she can land a few pairs back and be strong late.

USMANOV next best and a live chance after all these scratchings. VERENES and OUR ECHO can go in early quaddies.

*I’ve backed SHAMURT and saved SPIRIT’S CHOICE.

Value: 8-SHAMURT $10

Hardest To Beat: , 17-USMANOV

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Race 5:

COUNTESS DE GALVEZ halved her price from $9 to $4.50 when markets come out. That worries me confidence wise because I feel BAREFOOT and ZOUCARA are clearly better horses but have to respect that money.

BAREFOOT is just a ripper, she would have been in the ‘jewel’ to win but it was an unsuitable trip and this is far better, set weights and a mile from a decent gate, she is the horse to beat and just needs a bit of luck getting clear running in the straight.

ZOUCARA has improved out of sight, she won three straight before finding a Saturday CL3 where they literally walked in front but she was still very good running the fastest L400-200 of the race. A little query at the mile but she can’t go much better than she is.

Cav brings GEM DEALER and there looks to be upside there. Rock hard fit from recent racing and like the drop back to this trip. From the good gate Lloyd can park right behind the leaders and expecting her to run particularly well. $8 seems a fair price. (SHUFFLE UP ran enormous- 2nd to Ringadingding in Syd earlier today, GEM DEALER has form all around that horse).

On Top: GEM DEALER $8

Next Best: BAREFOOT- ZOUCARA

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Race 6:

Pretty ordinary race and going to break one of my golden rules-‘don’t back nonnies’. VELADERO is 16 runs without a win but if they ride him correctly he gets his chance. Ordinary starting point and Fradd needs to come out neutral to aggressive and hold a spot midfield (one off the fence may be best) as that would allow him to make his run when needed. You don’t want to be last around Toowoomba with 59.5kg, you might as well stay at home. If he sits close enough this is a huge drop in grade, been racing well against Jaminzah, Order Again and co, back to this grade ideal.

FRANCISCA is a horse I’ve always liked and again she will be one of the strongest late, the issue I have is she doesn’t have tactical speed and from that gate and this starting point I have her mapped to be last or very close to it. Might still be good enough agaisnt these but not easy to circle wide.

PONYTALES had been good before putting in a poor one last start when beaten a long way. She sits in front of the other two mentioned and they aren’t scared to go early in races and try to steal a length or two on the corner.

*Have had something on VELADERO

On Top: 1-VELADERO $6.50

Hardest To beat: 10-PONYTALES, 12-FRANCISCA

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Race 7:

THE TOOWOOMBA CUP:

Can be an ordinary race at times but I feel this is a very good edition. KUBIS crosses to lead, VAUCLUSE BAY goes forward and let’s that horse cross. INGEEGOODBE pushes forward to sit outside lead and Stewart will try push forward and find the one/one with THE LORD MAYOR. Feel they are advantaged but have to respect MISHANI VAIDRA, she is airborne at present and keeps taking the step up when tested. This is another step up but the home track helps and she will be strong late.

THE LORD MAYOR looks to have a bit of timing about him. Was good over the very unsuitable 1400m last start (run the 2nd fastest L200m of the race). Gets to his right trip and did beat horses like Brimham Rocks over this trip last prep before running ok in the G1 Metropolitan. Better than these at his best, blinkers go on and Stewart a good booking.

KUBIS and VAUCLUSE BAY are one paced types but feel this tough run home can suit them, they will be up front and out of trouble and although they might not have a turn of foot they are rock hard fit and sure to still be strong through the line. FOLLOW SUIT not the worst at $18 for those playing quaddies, forgive the last start.

*Have backed THE LORD MAYOR $4.40 and VAUCLUSE BAY $9

On Top: 5-THE LORD MAYOR $4.40 ++++ 9-VAUCLUSE BAY $9

Hardest To Beat: 4-MISHANI VAIDRA, 8-KUBIS

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Race 8:

THE WEETWOOD:

Not as keen on this race. Feel MISHANI HUSTLER and MR MARBELLOUZ can dominate up on speed and my only query is that shit horses with no hope may push forward and be pests, that can happen often in these country features.

They got it wrong and just went too hard on MR MARBELLOUZ last start, D.Smith has got the coke and sars off of the horse and Nothdurft goes on top. He has a good record on the horse and don’t think he will lead at all costs like last start where they went 6L faster than the bm to the 600m.

MISHANI HUSTLER is nearly the perfect horse, he just puts himself on speed and can find a turn of foot even off a hot tempo, that is rare and that’s why he has an overall record of (11:7:1:0). His only bad run this prep was when I thought he was a good thing and went like a busted bum! Reckon they will cross DIVINE DICE and then decide to either hold the front or let MR M cross if Nothdurft wants to go fast.

*Feel they fight it out but at the prices there is no real meat on the bone to back them both so might stay out.

On Top: 6-MR MARBELLOUZ $4.40 ++++ 8- MISHANI HUSTLER $3.40

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Race 9:

Dead set lottery here!

Massive amount of pressure and for that reason I’m looking for those getting the right run in transit and who can be strong late.

They went up the wrong price SNITCH, he was $26 into $8 very quickly. He won 5 straight last prep and he was good over the 1000m at EF fresh where he was one of only two to break 23 for the L400m in the race. Blinkers go back on and the 1100m is more suitable, good gate and runs well.

CAPITAL CONNECTION ticks every box, he’s in great form, back to 1100m is ideal, perfect gate and Lloyd back on. Deserves to be fav.

MEET MR TAYLOR has the most upside, I’m a massive fan of the horse, he wasn’t placed well last start and from that gate you have to question if they run him here with so much speed underneath?

Thought BRING IT HOME POP may have been some value at $34. Been a long time between runs but always showed ability, has changed stables and been gelded. Recent trial was good.

*Luck plays a major role here!

On Top: 2-SNITCH $8

Hardest To Beat: 4-CAPITAL CONNECTION $3

Roughie: 11-BRING IT HOME POP $34

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GIBBOS BEST:

*Not confident on the day at all*

These are just the main bets i’ve had

Best

Race 6 No.1- VELADERO $7

Best ew

Race 4 No.8- SHAMURT $8

Race 5 No.11- GEM DEALER $8

Best Roughie:

Race 3 No.15 REAL EGO if $31 still available

EARLY QUADDIE: (Races2-5)

1,2,4,7,9

4,12,13,15

2,8

5,7,11

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‘THE PROPHETS’ BEST:

Rc4 No.17- USMANOV

Rc8 No.9- VAUCLUSE BAY