Love a punt on the Golf of a week and this is the best tournament of the year. 12 LIV players join the PGA players on the most spectacular course in the world.
It’s always a place where I lean to experience and you often see veterans turn back the clock, especially if they have form on the board at Augusta.
DRIVING is always important but not the end of the world missing some fairways here. Same as DISTANCE, always nice to bomb them long, but it’s not the defining trend. GREENS IN REGULATION is the most important along with SCRAMBLING and PUTTING.
The PAR 5’s are where you have to make ground and take advantage. Very hard to see anyone winning and playing the long holes poorly.
*So what’s the plays and who am I risking?
With the market dominated by the top couple it’s hard to include them both along with looking for Value.
SCHEFFLER has won two of the past three years and trying to do what nobody else has done. He’s been good without being at his best lately. Still the one to beat but at $6 I have to risk. ABERG is my fav player but his recent form makes the $22 look unders. He’s exceptional but does come here off a missed cut at The Players and missed cut at Texas open last week.
Of those in the market, I’ll make RAHM and RORY covering bets. Love the way RORY is going, he’s the best player in the world at the moment. I may chip a bit more on him as we get closer. Again, just short in a tournament like this. RORY and SCHEFFLER could come out and win by 5 shots and not surprise me at all. You just can’t back them all is my approach.
The Masters 2025: Full Forecast
- Monday: Rain 94% chance; High: 68F; Winds: 5-10 mph.
- Tuesday: Sunny; 4% chance of rain; High 67F; Winds: 5-10 mph
- Wednesday: Sunny; 0% chance of rain; High: 64F; Winds: 5-10 mph
- Thursday: Clouds and sunshine; 18% chance of rain; High: 69F; Winds: 5-10 mph
- Friday: Clouds and sunshine; 24% chance of rain; High: 76F; Winds: 5-10 mph
- Saturday: Sunny and a few clouds; 16% chance of rain; High: 72F; Winds 5-10 mph
- Sunday: Sunny; 3% chance of rain; High: 76F; Winds: 5-10 mph
ODDS QUOTED are Betfair at time of typing*
MAIN CHANCES FOR ME (Market order not confidence wise):
MORIKAWA $18– Five starts this season and has been runner-up in two of them. Top 10 in another and worst two results have been T17th. MASTERS latest results have been 5th-10th-3rd. All signs say he should be there come Sunday. He is 1st on strokes gained APPROACH this year, 22nd in SCRAMBLING and if his putter has a good week, look out.
MIN WOO LEE $50- Coming here off the biggest win of his career and holding off the world number 1 to do it. The new caddie is a new world for Min Woo and some of the crazy decisions are now turning into smart calls. Led the PLAYERS until the last day and then the win two weeks ago. 14-MC-22 his three starts here and he is a different player now. 3rd in DRIVING DISTANCE and 4th in Strokes Gained PUTTING this year.
RUSSELL HENLEY $55– Four Top 10’s in seven starts this year including winning the Arnold Palmer. Overall record here is solid without being incredible but again, he’s better now. 4th on tour for GREENS IN REGULATION % and 14th for DRIVING ACCURACY. You know what you will get with him, good and honest and will give himself chances to score.
WILL ZALATORIS $75– Many will say he is not in his best form after the horrible back injury. They may have a point but he has made the cut in all 7 events he has played this year. Most impressive is his three starts here where he has finished 2nd-6th-9th. One of the best ball strikers in the world, it all comes down to the putter where he is ranked 130th this year.
SEPP STRAKA $90– How’s he this price? Most improved player in the world (or one of them) over the last 12 months. Winner of the American Express early in the year. Since then has been Top 20 in 5 of his next 7 events. 8th in STROKES GAINED this year, 5th in Stokes Gained APPROACH TO GREEN and 2nd in GREENS IN REGULATION %. He is world class and in form.
JASON DAY $140– I’m sure he plays better than this price. He fits a lot of my categories, has played well here, has experience, super around and on the greens. Had a swig change and debilitating back injury for a few years but the last 12-18 months have been nothing but positive. Has made all 7 cuts this year and 2x top 10’s. Full mixed bag at the Masters for Day, has been top 10 four times and a few missed cuts (but mostly when not right). Stats aren’t outstanding this year but gee I think he’s going ok.
SERGIO GARCIA $140– His form on LIV has been outstanding. He is 2nd overall on that tour and playing as well as I have seen him in a long time. Still one of the best strikers in the world and seems in complete control at the moment. He is still winning tournaments and seems to be in contention every week at LIV. Currently sits in front of Rahm, Koepka, Smith, Bryson and the likes, and simply outplaying them every week it seems. Has won this before and I can see him being thereabout at huge odds.
*Many like a lefty, best of them likely Robert MacIntyre and Akshay Bhatia around $80
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WRAP UP– I’ve avoided most of the faves, simply because the prices and i makes it hard backing too many players when you are taking $6-8 about a couple of them. RORY is the one that scares me the most on current form. I’ve gone for guys in form, most who have good records here and that I feel are over what their odds should look like.
